This Bitcoin Crash Is Creating A Weird Opportunity

I'm going to show you exactly how to get 2x your Bitcoin exposure without getting liquidated. But honestly, that's just the starting point. Now, for years, the only way to get this kind of leverage would wipe you out overnight. But the smartest investors have quietly created a new way. It's a strategy using something I call intelligent leverage. It's creating an entirely new asset class on top of Bitcoin. Now, I've been building companies for decades. I'm a partner at a venture fund investing in these specific companies. In this video, I'm going to give you the playbook that we use. I'm going to reveal a shocking chart that shows you how this new market is on a path to become even bigger than Bitcoin itself. You have to see this, so let's go. All right, so when we're talking about Bitcoin and we're talking about leverage on top of Bitcoin, I typically don't recommend it. I've seen way too many traders get completely liquidated by trying to get even more explosive returns on Bitcoin. What we're talking about is something a little bit different, but kind of the same. I'm talking about amplified Bitcoin. How do we amplify the returns of Bitcoin without putting leverage, without getting liquidated? We're going to break that down. Okay. So first of all, we want to look at Bitcoin through a few different lenses. Now we can buy Bitcoin, the commodity, we can buy it through an equity, we can buy it through an ETF and different types of things like that. But today we're going to be looking at specifically buying it through an equity on a company like MicroStrategy, formerly MicroStrategy, now strategy. Now I talk about them quite often, but I don't think anybody, probably nobody watching this video except for my hardcore viewers, really know what's actually under the hood and actually going on. I see all these mainstream media takes that completely miss what's going on. So let me break it down for you. Okay, so if we take a look at some of the biggest asset categories that we have, the performance over the last 5 years from August of 2020 to August of 2025, what we can see is that bonds are down 4%. Of course, wah wah, the 60/40 portfolio split is dead. Real estate it's down about 6% during that time. Gold 10%, S&P 500 about 14%. Excuse me, my voice a little bit off, been a little bit under the weather. Magnificent Seven has done about 27%, the Mag Seven, not the S&P 500, right? It's greatly almost doubled the performance there. But then the Mag Seven's done 27% and Bitcoin has about doubled that, 58% over that time. This is annually, 58% per year. And even better than in Bitcoin is MicroStrategy. It's done about 100% per year, 3,000% cumulatively. Bitcoin, 885% cumulatively versus 332% S&P 500 or Mag 7. All right. So you can see how these different assets over 5 years have done different. And so Bitcoin, although it's completely crushed every other asset, MicroStrategy has actually doubled it or 2x leverage or what we're calling amplified. Now I'm not just cherry picking data. Let's look at the last year. All right. So over the same timeframe, so August of last year to August of this year, we can see about the same bonds, 0%, real estate, 6%, S&P 500, 17%. The Mag 7 about double that. We can see gold a little bit better. Bitcoin has about doubled that, 74% in the last 12 months. And again, MicroStrategy almost doubling the performance of Bitcoin. 2x, not leveraged, but amplified Bitcoin. Now, a lot of people want to know why buy MicroStrategy and not just buy an ETF? Well, when you buy an ETF, you have exposure to Bitcoin. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. And as I showed you, one Bitcoin is outperforming every other asset. Congratulations. It's a good job. Same buying physical Bitcoin. Well, of course it's digital, but if we buy a Bitcoin treasury company like Strategy, or like MetaPlanet or any of the other ones out there, they're adding leverage, intelligent leverage. I'm going to break this down for you in a second. They're adding leverage, which allows them to get that leverage exposure, which allows us to receive the benefits of the amplified Bitcoin, but without having the risk. Now, how do they do this? How is it intelligent and how is it not a Ponzi scheme? Don't worry, we're going to pull back the curtains and I'm going to show you exactly what's going on. Because you should never buy something unless you understand what it is. What is it? What are they doing? Why do I expect it to go higher? Over what timeframe? What are the risks? How long am I going to hold it? All of these things. And if you don't understand what I'm about to show you, you'll never make a good decision based off this. You'll be underexposed, overexposed, et cetera. Okay. So the first thing is we have to understand what these companies are doing. These Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy, like MetaPlanet, et cetera. What they're doing is they're using arbitrage. They're leveraging one market leverage money against another market. It's like buying on Alibaba or Temu or whatever, and then selling on Amazon, right? You leverage the China market, which is super cheap, and you sell in the US market, which is more expensive. And what really is going on here is we have a digital transformation and we're digitizing money. That's what Bitcoin is doing. Now we know that digital transformation, digitizing money, the dematerialization of money will always move faster than physical, productive physical. So this would be like brick-and-mortar businesses. This is the S&P 500, and we know that businesses will always do better than debt and credit. So these are 3 different markets: debt and credit, physical productive, and then digital. 3 different markets that we can arbitrage against each other because they're moving at different speeds. And really what we're arbitraging— here's the big thing— the unlimited treasury market, the unlimited fiat currency that will always continue to be printed and expanded, against a scarce asset like Bitcoin. That's ultimately what the arbitrage is. But let me show you what I'm talking about. So if we look at MicroStrategy now, what they're trying to do is increase the amount of Bitcoin exposure you have for one share of stock. So if we take a look at this, this is, uh, 199,000 satoshis, which are a fragment of a Bitcoin per share of stock. Now, if they use no leverage, then what you'll see is the baseline and the leverage never changes. So 1 Bitcoin is 1 Bitcoin is 1 Bitcoin is 1 Bitcoin, a Bitcoin factor of 1. This would be similar to buying an ETF. I keep the same amount of Bitcoin exposure over a 10-year period. However, if we can start adding some intelligent leverage, don't worry, I'm going to show you what the intelligent leverage is. This is using a baseline or a 10% leverage number. What we can see is that over time, This green is the amount of Bitcoin exposure I have. And over time we can see that it goes higher, higher, and higher. So I went from 199,000 Satoshi per share of stock to, in this example, 267,000 Satoshis per share of stock. So the amount of Bitcoin I'm exposed to per share of stock went up over time. This would be at a 30% Bitcoin annual run rate and a 10% leverage rate. That's a Bitcoin factor of 1.3. All right, let's increase the leverage a little bit more so we can see. Why is it going up faster? Why is it amplified Bitcoin? Okay, so what we can see here, this is 20% leverage. Again, we start with the same 199,000 satoshis and over time, over 10 years at 20% leverage, we end up with 376,000. Not quite double, but almost. This is a 1.9 Bitcoin factor amplified Bitcoin. All right, let's keep going. One more example just to drive this point home so you can see the difference of buying Bitcoin buying a Bitcoin ETF or buying a Bitcoin treasury company like Strategy or MetaPlanet or some of the other ones. Okay, so now this is assuming a 30% leverage. Don't worry, we're going to get to these leverage ratios and where this comes from and what this all means. But now let's assume a 30% leverage ratio. So MicroStrategy is doing this. Think of it like I'm buying a dividend-paying stock, but rather than paying me the dividend, the dividend is being paid in Bitcoin. But instead of them paying to me, they're reinvesting it for me. Think about it like that, compounding the returns. So at a 30% baseline or leverage, we can see we start with again the 199,000 satoshis and over 10 years we end up with 555,000. So more than double the amount of Bitcoin, 2 times, 2 times the performance. Are you starting to see the numbers here? This is a 2.8 times Bitcoin factor. Now imagine going up to 20 years and 30 years and et cetera, and you can start to understand the outperformance that's here. Okay, so now you can easily see how they can increase the amount of Bitcoin you have per share, but What you want to know is what does that mean for the price? Should it do 2x, 3x, 5x what Bitcoin does? I want to show you that real quick. Now, before I break into that, I do want to let you know real quick, if you like these videos, but you want to see this live, you want to see it with real numbers on a real screen, I am running a live workshop pretty soon. If you click on the link right here down in the description, or there's a QR code on the screen right here, you can come join me live. We'll go through this. There's not many seats left, but if you, if you get in, we can discuss this live. You can ask all your questions to me live. It's going to sell out though. So go ahead and grab your spot before it's too late. So what is this intelligent leverage. And where do we come up with the multiple? How much should it be? 2 times, or should it be 3 times, or should it be 5 times? Where should the number be? That Bitcoin factor. Uh, by the way, all of these charts, as you can see, they probably have the strategy name right here. These all came from Strategy's Q2 meeting. They did a live stream, and so they presented all these slides. I grabbed them from them. If you want to know more about these, you might want to watch their meetings, although they could be a little bit boring, so I'll just bring you the highlights. All right. So this takes a look at the Bitcoin factor. Remember the return, the ratio, and this assumes that there's an 8% dividend rate and a 10-year duration. So we're looking over a 10-year period. So on this column, this is looking at the Bitcoin annual return rate, the ARR. So we have to guess, do we think Bitcoin will return 10%, 20%, 50%? It's been averaging about a 50 to 60% per year. So what will it continue? Well, let's just say 30%. So we'll call it 30%. And then what leverage, how much leverage will they apply? And we'll get more to the leverage in a second. How much leverage do they apply? Well, if we could assume a 30% run rate, annual run rate over the next 10 years, again, we're at about double that now. If we could assume that over the next 10 years and they got a, um, and they got a 30% leverage, that would give them a 2.8 times factor, right? So this is like the multiple that they'd be running at. Now what if Bitcoin does better? Like I said, it's doing 50% now. And what if they got to 40%? Then it could be 9 times what Bitcoin does. You see how powerful this leverage is. What if it was 13 times Bitcoin? So it depends on what the return rate of Bitcoin will be. And I'm going to show you more about some projections of what that return rate will be in a minute or what the leverage ratio will be. You see some examples there, a couple other ways they broke it down. We can take a look at this. What this is showing us is again the same, the annual run rate. We have to guess, is it going to be 30% again? And this is what their dividend rate is. So when they're taking on this money, this debt, They're creating products, financial products, and they're basically thin slicing it out and they're owing people money at coupon rate. I'm going to break it down in a second. So do they pay 8%, 6%, 12%? So again, if we assume that they're paying, let's say, a blended rate of 7%, maybe 6%, maybe 5%, that would give them a 4x factor. All right, this is the amplified leverage, the intelligent leverage that we're talking about. Uh, one more sheet just to drive it home, and then we'll get more into how they're actually doing this. Okay, this is again assuming a 30% annual run rate over a 10-year period. Now we have the leverage here, so let's say we get up to like a 40% leverage, and this is the dividend rate they have to pay, so they're only paying 5% at a 40%, and here we are at a 5x. So you can see that depending on how we look at this, depending on what we think the leverage ratio will be or what annual return rate will be, it's somewhere between maybe a 3 to 5x. Seems about the average, the amount of amplification, the factor rate that MicroStrategy and Bitcoin treasury companies are able to produce. Okay, so what is this? What is the product? What is the product that they're providing that gives them this intelligent leverage, this amplified Bitcoin? Well, let's think about this. What they're doing is they're taking Bitcoin. It's a commodity. It's a very volatile commodity that goes up and down. However, it's very explosive to the upside, but it's a commodity. So not everyone can buy a commodity. Pension funds, insurance funds, governments, they can't buy the commodities, right? And so a lot of people also maybe can't handle the volatility. Right? So I can't buy it through my 401k or through my pension plan. Also, I'm 78 years old. I'm on fixed income. I can't hold for the 4 or 5 years of volatility either. So what they're doing is they're taking Bitcoin and they're thin slicing it. So let's say that we take Bitcoin like this and we can thin slice it and chop it up and we'll say, hey, what if we give you 80% of the upside of the Bitcoin price? But we give you no downside to the price and on top of it we'll pay you, let's say, 8% to hold that. Or what if they say, here, we're going to give you 12% return guaranteed forever in perpetuity. So we'll take part of Bitcoin and we'll start slicing it up and give it to you in products and we'll wait for that. Here's what this looks like. Again, this is from MicroStrategy, or I should say Strategies. I use the names interchangeably. Sometimes I forget, but mostly just so Everybody else knows what I'm talking about because the name change has been recent, but Strategy enables a wide variety of securities based on Bitcoin, which is a commodity, right? So this is now— everybody can get access to this. So we take Bitcoin here, this raw asset, and then we create different things, a higher volatility leverage play. So this is the stock MicroStrategy, MSTR, right? Um, this is— well, this— these would be options on it. Here's the stock down here, right? And then what we can do is we can create these products down here where we've thin sliced it and we pay like here, we pay 8% for people to hold this one. We pay 9% for people to hold this one. We pay 12% or 10% for them to hold these products. So we take Bitcoin, we thin slice it, we create securities around it and we offer it to different people for different reasons. Again, if I'm 78 years old and I need income to pay my monthly bills, I can't just buy Bitcoin and hodl. I can't handle the volatility. I need income. And that's exactly what these products are. So what happens is over time, these Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy or Pioneering are building out a yield curve. So we have over here, long-term, this would be like a US Treasury bond. So instead of buying US Treasury bonds, which is like, you know, maybe the government will pay, maybe they won't, most likely they probably will, but with devalued dollars, but I'm only getting 4% or 5%. How about we pay you 10% and we give you upside potential on Bitcoin, but with no downside? That sounds pretty good. All the way over here we have, um, junk bonds. And then even better than jump bonds over here we have like loans and this is where Stretch, one of the other products, STRC is here and they're just going to pay you, you know, 10% in perpetuity and it's fixed so you don't lose money. Sort of like a money market account. And so they're starting to create products up and down these and each one of them allows them to get this intelligent leverage, this amplified Bitcoin that they're going for. This is how they're able to deliver that. Now the next question that you should probably be asking yourself is, okay, So, if that's the product, then how big is the market and what's the profit margin? So, for example, if you're gonna buy Apple stock, which maybe a lot of you own Apple stock, you should be thinking, "Well, how big do I think Apple can grow? How big is the market? How many more iPhones and iPads will they sell in the future? What is their profit margin on those iPads?" And so, we're trying to buy Apple based off of a discount today of where we think its future valuation will be based off of how much it can expand its market and and how much it makes. So if we think about this, how big are these markets? How many people might want to make 10% guaranteed? How much— how many people want that? That might be a valuable product. Well, let's take a look at that. So what we can see if we look at the comparison products, so if I was going to pitch you on Uber 15 years ago, I'd show you, well, look how big taxis are or limos are. So here's how big these markets are. So first of all, ETF market comparison, we can see that in preferred equity, which these products are sort of like a preferred equity, we can see that there's hundreds of millions of dollars that are sitting there right now, but they're making very low yield, 6 to 7%. We can see there's high-yield bonds. So the bond market is obviously very big. A lot of people buy those as part of the 60/40 portfolio. They're averaging about a 6 to 7% yield. And there is billions, $5 billion sitting there. It's a pretty big market. We have loans. So here's a couple of big loan funds. They're paying 7 to 8% yield. We got another, you know, roughly billion dollars sitting there. So we're talking $5, $6 billion, pretty big market, right? Okay. Well, we haven't even scratched the surface. Here's really where the big fish are. And you can see that we're just barely getting started here. So take a look at this. This is a universe of comparable assets. So these are assets that people are really buying to get safe return, safe yield. So US Treasury bonds, as we said, there's, uh, $28.3 trillion with a capital T, $28.3 trillion paying 4%, 4%, $28 trillion. How much of that $28 trillion would like to get 8% or 10%? Uh, we have agency mortgage-backed securities, $9.2 trillion, paying 5%. Investment-grade bonds, $5 trillion, 5%. Junk bonds, $2.6 trillion, 7%. And on and on and on. So we're talking now trillions. We're talking $30, $40, $50 trillion that are earning about half of what these are paying down here. So that's the market. Now, how much is the profit margin? If I sell an iPhone, how much money do I make? Well, for MicroStrategy chopping up Bitcoin, offering these types of returns and then buying Bitcoin and waiting, they make the difference. They make the arbitrage. They arbitrage the difference of the credit market. So we started there to the digitization of money market. So they're making about a 50% profit margin. So there's an enormous market, the biggest market in the world, and the profit margin is outstanding. So that's the intelligent leverage. That's why they're able to offer this amplified Bitcoin, a leverage play without you getting liquidated. Okay, so where does all this go? If, if MicroStrategy or companies like Strategy, other Bitcoin treasury companies like Metaplanet, etc., if they're able to do intelligent leverage and do it intelligently and not get blown up and provide that leverage, and they can do 2, 5, 8 times what Bitcoin's returns are, then what's Bitcoin's returns going to be? Well, let's take a look at that. So I talk about this quite often. Now, first of all, real quickly, uh, now that you understand this business model a little bit, maybe it makes sense when you take a look at this. If we look at the S&P 500, the main market of the world, and we look at the 2025 estimated net income, we can see that Strategy is right here, number 13, with $24 billion. Number 13. But when we take a look at it over here in market cap, we see it's way down here on 96. So why is a company with this high of revenue, number 13, the market is only realizing the value that puts it all the way down on number 96? And even more, companies are really based off of their PE ratio. And what we can see on a PE ratio is Strategy is way down here, number 495. So why is a company that's 13th in income down to 495 in PE ratio? And I guess I'd ask you a different question: does that look like a potential market mismatch? Does it look like potentially the market doesn't really understand the genius of what's going on here? These are the opportunities that as investors we're looking for. Okay, so where are we going? Here's another slide from the presentation. What this is, is a chart of the institutional research that does research on Bitcoin and what they have to say. And so this is for an end of year 2025 price projection of Bitcoin. It's not my projection. It's all these different analysts. Barclays puts it at $116,000. Bernstein puts it at $200,000. We have Wainwright puts it at $225,000, Maxim $235,000, TD Cowen $137,000. So what we have is an average of $168,000. So that's, you know, whatever, 50%, 60% gain from here. So if Bitcoin could do a 50% or 60% gain, then could these companies do 2 to 3 times that? Could it be 100%, 150%, 200%? But let's look at it even a little bit farther, right? Bitcoin is a long-term asset. You should not be looking at it monthly or quarterly. As a matter of fact, as I often say, if you're looking at your portfolio on a quarterly basis, you're probably never going to make it. Not when you want big-time returns. Now you might recognize this chart. I've used it many times in other videos, and this projects out where I believe the long-term value of Bitcoin will be based off of a bunch of factors, including what the government, the CBO, projects what deficit, debt spending, etc., will be by 2054 for the next 30 years. And based off of this, by 2030, I've mapped out Bitcoin being worth $21 trillion or about $1 million per Bitcoin. That's about an 8 or 9 times return from here. Round numbers, call it a 10x. So if MicroStrategy and other companies like that could do 2x or 3x or 4x, as I've just shown you why, instead of a 10x return like Bitcoin, that could be a 30x or 40x return for companies like this. That's what we're calling intelligent leverage. Now if we go out a little bit further, here's another projection that puts Bitcoin at $20,000 based again based off of the debt, the deficit spending all continue to expand. All of these assets will continue to expand, expand. And I believe Bitcoin will reach about a $289 trillion market cap or about $14 million per Bitcoin. And again, these companies could 2, 3, or 5x that. So you can start to see very quickly why these companies are trading for such higher valuations. But again, don't get caught up in, well, what about this quarter? What about this month? Zoom out a little bit and understand these are long-term assets and it's taking time to build this thing out. Bitcoin's price dropped 50%, and when it looked like it was recovering, it started dropping again. Now, right now everybody's asking the same question, like, where's the bottom? But that's the wrong question, and that question is going to cost you. Because while you may be asking the wrong question, there's a different question that's not based on guessing chart analysis but actual data behind And that shows us the repeating pattern over the past 15 years. And it's telling us what comes next. Now, understanding this is the difference. So in this video, I want to break down what signs we're looking at to find the market tops and the bottoms. We're going to look at the charts and the on-chain data in 3 signals and the one line that's proven to be the best entry and what type of returns it's produced. So let's go. All right, it's time to look into that fuzzy crystal ball and see where Bitcoin's price is going because everybody's asking me, Mark, should I buy now? Is it going to keep crashing? Is it going to go lower? All these things. Well, I don't like to run my business off of my gut or my guesses, and I don't want to run my money or my investments off my gut. Let's look at the data behind that. OK, now what everyone's asking is, when will the bottom be? They want to catch the very bottom. They want to catch the floor, if you will. And so is this the bottom? Has the bottom come in? Will it go lower? Well, as you've probably heard before, Hindsight is 20/20. What that means is like, obviously looking backwards, it seems so obvious, but it's never obvious moving forward. And so what does that mean? What that means is that we don't know tops or bottoms until we look backwards on them. We can make all types of guesses, but we don't know until it goes up and until we look backwards. And part of the reason why is as we're making new all-time highs, it goes like this, or even if we're crashing, it goes like this. And so we never really know, is it going to be another bounce? Now, there's a lot of data we can look at. I'm going to break it down for you right now, but we don't know for certain until we look backwards. So since we don't know the exact top or bottom, we have to look at the data around it. And more specifically, what we're looking for is understanding what actually drives tops and bottoms. Okay, so it's super simple. I'm going to break this down for you, just like price is super simple. Supply and demand imbalances there. Okay, so what drives tops and what drives bottoms? Pretty simple. What drives the top? And what you'll notice is markets, especially like Bitcoin, typically gets like this. Run up, and then it gets like this parabolic run, and then what we call a blow-off top. And the reason why is because it starts attracting more and more buyers, because humans are real simple. We rush to pleasure, we run from pain. So as the price is going up, we hear about everybody getting rich, more people buy, more people buy, more people buy, and it starts sucking in more and more and more and more and more. And eventually the market runs out of buyers. There's no more buyers to buy. And so the price stalls out and it can't maintain that, that pace anymore. Then it starts to roll over. And because humans also run from pain, um, the ones that don't believe in it were the last ones to buy, they start selling and it pushes the price back down. So markets stop going up when it runs out of buyers and markets also stop going down when it runs out of sellers. Pretty simple, right? So if we can understand the buyers and sellers, that's a really big key, a really big piece. We're going to look at that specifically. So that's what we can use to measure it. Okay. Now I'm going to, I'm going to show you a bunch of data. There's a lot more data than what I'm going to show you. But what I'm also going to show you is there's one line that we've looked at that's pretty consistent over time. Now, don't run your life or your business or your investments off of one chart or one indicator, but this one indicator is super reliable. It boils it down so you can follow along pretty simply. Okay, let's take a look at this. So the first thing is markets stop going up when there's no more buyers. Markets stop going down when there's no more sellers. So when will the sellers be exhausted? That's what we're looking at right now, because obviously the markets are going down. So we want to know, when do we run out of sellers? Well, there's 3 signals that we're looking for to find the exhaustion in the base. OK, so number 1, when we see that half of the market— so we can understand— so just if you're new to Bitcoin, because it's an open blockchain, it's an open ledger, we can see the data. So we have what we call on-chain data. So we can see wallets. We can see what wallets are doing, moving, how long those wallets have been dormant, all types of things. And that gives us a lot more data than we typically get in normal investments. OK, so when we can see that half the market is underwater, that typically tells us that sellers are starting to get exhausted. So we have this chart, by the way, these charts right here from Blockware. Shout out to my friends over at Blockware Self-Hosted Mining. I do a lot of work with them. But what we see is that percent supply in profit. So what we can see is that when the bottom part of, uh, the, the bottom part of the holders are below 50%, so this white line is the Bitcoin price and this green line is the percent of the Bitcoin holders that are in profit. And as you can see right here, anytime we get down to this zero line, we're below that level. And so you can see back here in 2022, that was the last Bitcoin low, the last bottom cycle that we had. You can see where it got here. Same thing here back in 2018 at the bottom of the market. Same thing back here in like around 2015. So you can see we're sitting on that line right here again today. So we can see that sellers are starting to get exhausted, as we can see it in this chart. Okay, there's another way we can do this. We want to look at the Bitcoin miners. So the Bitcoin miners, of course, they process transaction on the network, they earn Bitcoin rewards for doing that, and so they stockpile, they hoard, they hold, hodl a lot of Bitcoin. But when they start capitulating, meaning they're just out, they're selling their Bitcoin, that's usually a sign that the sellers are being exhausted. Why? Well, one of the reasons is because they're one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin. This is the hash ribbon. So the hash is the hash power. So the computers, it measures how much power, how much mining power is on the network. And what we can see again here, if we go back to 2022, we can see this capitulation right here in this market low right here. If we go back here, uh, But in this market cycle, we can see it right here as well. And we go back in 2015 and we can see it all right here. And as you can see, just like this area here, we are below the line. We have a lot of minor capitulation. Again, some of the biggest sellers that we have are now capitulating. They're selling their Bitcoin into the market. Then we have strong hands flip. What does that mean? We call strong hands the ones that don't hold. The weak hands are the ones that buy and sell very quickly. So when we see the strong hands flipping, that also gives us an idea. So we can take a look at it like this. This is the long-term, long-term holder position change. And what we can see is obviously the long-term holders are selling and then the long-term holders start buying again. They sell it, they buy back out. Maybe they know something we don't know, but we can see how this has played out in 2022 as the, as the price came down right here, we can see they were selling, selling, selling and they started buying, buying, buying. Here we can see that they were selling, selling, selling. And now we can see they're buying up again right here. So they're flipping. They went from selling and now they're stopping selling and they're starting to buy. So what does that tell us? No more sellers. So the big long-term strong hands aren't selling. The miners are sold out. They're capitulating and the market's underwater. So that's 3 signals that typically show us when the market is being exhausted, when we're running out of sellers. Okay. So next we'll look at the line. Again, there's a lot of data points, but this one line has been very reliable over a long period of time. So if there's one line I'm going to watch, it's going to be this one. Again, watch it in conjunction with others. Now, what am I talking about? I'm talking about the 200-week moving average. Okay, so this is basically averaging out the last 200 weeks, and we can see this line right here is— represents that average. And this is the Bitcoin price. And what we can see is back here in 2018, it touched the line. 2020, it came below the line. In 2022, it sat below the line quite a bit. And we can see we're just below the line and just on it right here. So what does this represent? Well, it tells us if we go back to the beginning of Bitcoin's time, we can see that anytime it's reached this line or gone below it, it's been historically cheap because we don't know a top or a bottom until we look backwards. What we're trying to find out is when things are cheap or when things are expensive, when things are overbought or when they're oversold. And that's what this is showing us. Anytime it comes down here, it's been a historic buying opportunity. You had the chance to buy here and ride that all the way back up, buy here, ride that all the way back up, buy here, ride that all the way back up. And here we are sitting again here, and we have this opportunity to ride it back up. Now, these are what we call historic buying opportunities. As a matter of fact, I'm going to show you here at the end what some of the opportunities could present if history holds true. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But as you can see, if there's one line I'm going to watch, it's going to be this one because it shows me what's going on. The 200-week moving average also sort of helps us understand where people were buying. And so this is the cost basis of coins acquired in the last 2 years. And so there was a heavy accumulation right here. As you can see, heavy accumulation anytime it gets below that line. What this is basically telling us is that the 2-year cost basis— again, people are buying in this area right here— is $88,000. So they're underwater. It goes back to one of those charts I just showed you. So right now the price is in the $63,000-$65,000 range at the time of recording this, and the 2-year cost basis is $88,000. So they're underwater. So check this out, follow this. If there's one chart, that's the one I don't want to be watching. Okay, now we also want to understand the fundamentals that push Bitcoin's price. So we're sort of looking at like a lagging indicator, sort of telling us what's happened or what's happened so far. We want to understand what's going to happen. We want to understand the leading indicators, what's actually driving this, what's under the fundamentals here. And so from that, we can see that the tide is starting to turn. What am I talking about? So Bitcoin is like a liquidity sponge. When there's a lot of liquidity, when there's a lot of money supply, debt, etc., when the bond index is down, when things like that, then Bitcoin soaks up— it's more sensitive to that global liquidity, and it pushes assets up. So when liquidity goes up, it's like the, the rising tide lifts all boats, and Bitcoin's the fastest boat. Okay, so a couple things that we want to look at. First of all, global liquidity. Now there's a bunch of ways we can measure it. Most of them are proprietary indexes. A couple good ones I like are the Bitcoin Layer, Nick Badian group over there. Uh, Raoul Pal does a good one in Real Vision. Michael Howell, he's the GOAT of global liquidity. There's a bunch of ways we can do that. This is just a chart of the major central banks and what their money supply is showing. It's a little bit more of a simple version, but as you can see, this is showing the, the global liquidity is going up right here. And this is the NASDAQ, and look at how fast that's going up based off of that liquidity. And so again, this is the underlying driver that will lift Bitcoin back up, and we can see that it's turning up. That's one way to look at it. Here's another chart. This is from Bitcoin Magazine Pro. If you want to get the on-chain data, on-chain indicators, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro. And this is the Bitcoin price right here, and this is the global liquidity. And you can see right here in this section that global liquidity Liquidity has turned up and the Bitcoin price is still down. That's presented a gap right here that needs to be filled. And so we expect Bitcoin to turn back up pretty heavy and then overcome that gap and then start rising again off of that liquidity. So these are the underlying drivers. Another one we want to look at is the bond index. All right. So this is represented by the MOVE Index. And what we can see is that when the bond volatility drops, as we can see it down here, it's come down quite a bit. This represents a very favorable tailwind to start lifting Bitcoin price back up so we can see the sellers The bottoms are being exhausted. We can see the price is at all-time historic buying opportunity lows, and we can see the liquidity is presenting a positive fundamental environment to start pushing the price back up. Okay, now, cheap in what, though? Cheap in what? Well, we have to understand that value is more important to understand. It's more realistic to understand than the bottoms. Nobody knows the bottom of the market, and maybe some people get lucky once in a while. But what we can understand is the range. So people can sell in the bottom range, they can sell in the cheap range when it's a good value, or they could buy in that range. Right. So we don't know the bottom, but we do know the value, the cheap, the pricing, things like that. What we can tell off of the data— and there's a bunch more indicators I look at— we can tell that right now, currently, we are in deep value territory. Now, I do want to say that just because it's cheap doesn't mean, number one, doesn't mean it can't get cheaper. It also doesn't mean that it can't stay cheap for a long time. So we don't know these things. We don't know the bottom. But what we do know is that it's cheap. We also know that past performance is no guarantee of the future. But let me show you a couple, a couple more charts here. So when we get these factors to line up all together, so for example, the supply and profit is 50%, the hash ribbon is, uh, is falling, the price is below the 2-year cost basis, this and the long-term holders are accumulating. Anytime it's done that, that's represented by these, these colored brown bars right here. You can see that anytime it's done this, it's represented these amazing buying opportunities, right? Here we are. And you can see we've— all those factors have combined again right here. Now again, past performance is no guarantee of the future, but if this holds, this looks like another historic buying opportunity lined up in front of us. Now what has happened if you have bought during those periods? Well, Let's take a look at this. So if we go back to 2011, what we can see is if you bought, you could have bought Bitcoin for only $4 back then. Imagine buying it for $4. You would have, in a year, you would have made 162%. Within 2 years, 2,551% return on your money. In 2015, it's about, about the time I started buying Bitcoin. It crashed. It hit about $1,000 in 2013. That's when I first started paying attention to it. And I was watching it run up to $1,000. Then it crashed spectacularly. I'm like, whoo, good thing I didn't buy that I bought around 2015, it bottomed. Well, I guess it bottomed around $227. I bought it in the $300 range. But you can see within 2 years it was up 469%. November 2018, that was the first big drawdown I had to suffer in. It went from— well, I guess it went from $300 when I started again in 2015. At the end of 2017, it was over— it was about $20,000. Then it spectacularly crashed to $5,700. But it went on to return 185% in 2 years. We can see in December 2022, another time it was below that 200 weekly moving average for quite a while, hit a bottom of $16,000 and had a 529% return. And here we are right here. We're at about $63,000 at the time of this recording. And of course, we don't know what the return will be. But there's a couple of things I want to draw your attention to. Number one, you'll see that it went from 4 to 227 to 57 to $16,000 to 63. You'll notice that each of the lows are higher. So when you're looking at financial markets, what you want to see is higher highs and higher lows. And as you can see, this continues to make higher lows over and over and over. The other thing that you can see is that the, the median returns is 499%, 500% returns. The worst-case returns were 185%. Not too bad. Now, the one thing I'll tell you about my own experience is that each one of these times, to see the price crash back down here, it's really difficult. I mean, like I said, I started buying around $300. I saw it go up to $20,000 and crash all the way down to about $5,000. And I had enough money for me at the time, was like, man, this is like life-changing money. Why didn't I sell? I can't believe it. I missed my opportunity. I'll never get another chance. Now, I didn't sell, but what I also didn't do was I didn't buy. I didn't back the truck up and buy heavily here because I'm like, man, it may never come back. I don't know. I'm listening to all the FUD. I kind of already have some. Let me just see what happens. And then it came back up. Same thing happened here. It crashed back down to $16,000, and it's a whole nother set of stories as to why it's dead this time. It's not coming back. And again, I didn't sell, but like, I didn't back up the truck because it's like, man, I don't know. I don't know if I want to get any more. I kind of already had enough. Maybe I'll just wait. And I would say the same thing is sitting here now. It's a whole new set of reasons why Bitcoin's not going to come back. AI took all the liquidity, or Quantum's going to break it, or whatever you want to put it in. MicroStrategy owns too much of it, whatever you want to put in there. But now is the time. If history is our guide, now is the time to start adding back to your positions when it's cheap, when things go on sale. The same reasons why people stand in line, stand, stand in line all night at Walmart on Black Friday to get things on sale. It's much harder. It's much harder with financial assets than it is big screen TVs for some reason. But anyway, again, if history is our guide, now is the time to be buying. Doesn't mean it can't be cheap for longer. Doesn't mean it can't get more cheap than now. But we do know is that every time we've had a chance to buy in this deep value range, it's been a historic buying opportunity. How do I How do I automate it so I take all my emotion, thought process, all the time, effort, energy out of that to make sure I'm guaranteed to achieve my goals? But if you want to know about the entire wealth operating system that this is only just one piece of, you might want to go watch this video right here to build a system that pays you forever. It's on the screen right here. I'll see you over there.