This Is Why I Don't Trade Bitcoin

21 Oct 2026 · 1 min

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In this solo commentary, Mark Moss warns viewers against trying to time Bitcoin trades by selling during price drops. He explains that Bitcoin’s extraordinary annual returns are heavily concentrated in a handful of days each year. Using data from 2019 and 2021, he shows that the top ten trading days delivered over 200% gains while the remaining days generated substantial losses (‑39% in 2019, ‑43% in 2021). Because the best days tend to follow the worst, exiting the market can cause investors to miss the biggest upside. Moss concludes that staying fully invested—letting time in the market work for you—is the only reliable strategy for capturing Bitcoin’s outsized returns.

Chapters

With Bitcoin's price dropping like it is right now, you might be tempted to sell out and just buy back in when it's a little bit cheaper. But if you're going to think about doing that, let me show you this chart you need to know. The annual returns of Bitcoin are concentrated in just a few days. So we think about Bitcoin's performance, 50% CAGR per year, best performing asset ever, but we don't realize that it's all concentrated in just a few days. In 2019, the top 10 trading days of the year returned 217%, and the other 355 days lost 39%. In 2021, the best 10 days brought in almost 200% return. The rest of the year brought in a loss of 43%. And so what this means is that you can't be out of the market when these days happen. But here's the problem. The best days, the best 10 days happen after the worst days. And that's when they say time in the market beats timing the market.