Mark Moss shows why timing Bitcoin trades backfires: in 2019, the top 10 trading days gained 217% while the other 355 days lost 39%. The best days cluster right after the worst ones, so selling during drops means missing the biggest bounces. Staying invested beats trying to pick the moment.
With Bitcoin's price dropping like it is right now, you might be tempted to sell out and just buy back in when it's a little bit cheaper. But if you're going to think about doing that, let me show you this chart you need to know. The annual returns of Bitcoin are concentrated in just a few days. So we think about Bitcoin's performance, 50% CAGR per year, best performing asset ever. But we don't realize that it's all concentrated in just a few days. In 2019, the top 10 trading days of the year returned 217%, and the other 355 days lost 39%. In 2021, the best 10 days brought in almost 200% return. The rest of the year brought in a loss of 43%. And so what this means is that you can't be out of the market when these days happen. But here's the problem. The best days, the best 10 days happen after the worst days. And that's when they say time in the market beats time in the market.
