Matthew Rosenquist predicts that AI will embolden nations to weaponize cyber attacks as standard foreign policy tools. Fear of retaliation has held back cyber warfare until now, but AI makes attacks more powerful and accessible, triggering a global arms race in offensive and defensive capabilities.
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Cybersecurity predictions for 2026. Prediction number 7: Hybrid cyber warfare integration. There will be a new norm when it comes to employing offensive cyber capabilities. Nations will fully embed cyber operations into military strategy, foreign policy, intelligence gathering, and economic influencing operations, including the targeting of critical infrastructure, manipulation of political authority, and undermining foreign technology leadership. Most countries have possessed cyberattack capabilities for many years, but they've held back on unleashing those weapons for fear of reprisals from larger and more advanced adversaries. But with AI, it's a whole new game, where the playing field will be much more even and the tools more powerful. Hesitation will dissipate, The largest nations are already using cyber as an advantage. As more attacks occur, it is creating a level of accepted normality among the international community. The broad use of cyberattacks on the global stage justifies more investment in defensive and offensive capabilities from everyone to shield from attacks, deter adversaries, and to aggressively employ for use in pursuit of their own goals. We will see cyber weapons used as part of blockades, sanctions, political attacks, economic espionage, financial pressure, denial of critical infrastructures, wartime activities, and operations to drive regime changes. Use of cyberattacks is simply becoming more acceptable. It's a brave new world where cyber is now a viable tool of foreign policy.
