In this commentary, the speaker examines the rapid emergence of GLP‑1 based weight‑loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, originally developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, and the expected wave of new competitors slated for 2025‑2026. He outlines the current adoption landscape—about 9 million prescriptions in early 2024, high monthly prices (~$1,000) and limited insurance coverage—highlighting why the drugs have not yet transformed the global obesity epidemic (≈1 billion obese people). The speaker then explores the broader economic and sectoral ramifications if widespread adoption reduces obesity: diminished impulse‑driven demand for sugary, fatty, or high‑dopamine products (fast‑food chains, casinos, confectionery), lower airline fuel consumption due to lighter passengers, and a projected 1‑3 % boost to U.S. GDP from healthier, more productive workers, as cited by a Goldman Sachs study. He notes political momentum, citing a prospective U.S. president and Elon Musk’s call for universal drug access, which could drive prices down and accelerate uptake. Finally, he advises businesses that rely on dopamine‑driven consumption to anticipate a potential contraction in demand and consider strategic pivots.
Chapters
So news this week that in 2025 and 2026, upwards of 18 to 50, depending on your estimates, new weight loss drugs kind of like Ozempic and Wegovy and stuff like that are expected to come on the market. And it could potentially change a hell of a lot of stuff in the world of business. And if you've been hiding under a rock, which I sometimes do because it's fun, these are drugs that have come out of two different corporations: Novo Nordisk, which is a Danish company, I think, or Swedish, I don't know, somewhere up there, and then also come out of Eli Lilly, so the American pharmaceutical giant. And these historically were drugs used to treat other stuff but have found a use in reducing people's weight. So you take these shots, and people have clamored for them, and there's lots of results of people losing a quarter of their body weight in a year. And, you know, in a world in which obesity has gone absolutely crazy, that is kind of a miracle drug because so far, you know, despite my worst fears, we haven't seen a ton of side effects from these types of drugs. But even still, with the obesity epidemic globally going crazy, there's a billion people who are obese in the, in the world now. They're targeting a huge market with these kind of drugs. So, you know, one of the side effects of these drugs is they cause people to lose weight because they change behavior, right? They change your desire to go chase dopamine, go eat more, and all that kind of stuff. And you can see the byproduct there, right? If we were to suddenly take millions of people, or even to some extent a billion people in the world, and suddenly make them not obese anymore and not desirous of sugary candy and overeating and all those kind of things that are impulse-type things where you, you chase a dopamine high, um, that could change markets, right? Because people aren't going to be showing up to McDonald's buying unhealthy sugary treats because they'll just have more impulse control. And you can see other industries as well, right? If the obesity rate goes down, uh, you know, the biggest expense for airlines— fuel, right? If suddenly on average the passengers weighed 24% less, they would save amazing amounts of fuel because they have to spend fuel to lift heavier, fatter people up into the sky. And on and on, right? If the obesity rate and people's interest in this kind of impulse buying dopamine stuff goes down, it's going to change buying behavior. And that can affect a lot of stuff. And it's kind of hard to tell how these things are going to affect markets because we haven't really seen that widespread of adoption yet. So Novo Nordisk reported at the beginning of this year, 2024, they only have about 9 million prescriptions written for Wegovy and Ozempic, right? And so those two things together— I may be getting my brand names confused because each side, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, has two brands. But anyway, I am not on, uh, not on these types of drugs, as you can tell. Um, but anyway, they only have 9 million total, total prescriptions written. And again, compare that to a billion people in the world being obese. We haven't started to really see massive levels of impact on society. And look, a big part of the reason is, is these drugs are still really expensive, uh, at $1,000 a month, which is down from where they were, right? I remember when we first started to see Ozempic at the market, people were paying $2,000, $3,000 a month, whatever it took, uh, to get access to them because there was so much competition, uh, to buy them and so little supply. Um, now we're looking at somewhere around $1,000 a month. And that's a lot of money. That's— I mean, if you gave me ads for $1,000 a month, I would gladly pay that. But it's, it's still a lot of money for anybody. And part of that also is insurance is not universally covering it. Only about 50% of people, by last counts I saw, are able to use insurance to actually reduce their weight through these different drugs. So it still creates a big adoption hurdle. and that's part of why we haven't seen it, you know, be more widespread. But things are changing. And one of the more recent ones is we have a new president coming in the United States in 2025, and he has some pretty close advisors. And one of those, Elon Musk, has recently said that one of the best things we could do for the United States would be to make Ozempic and these other drugs universally available. You combine that with a number of other companies coming on market 2025, 2026, and beyond, and bringing direct competitors to Eli Lilly and the Novo Nordisk products, it can only mean that the cost of these drugs is going to go way down. And when the cost goes down, it's like most everything else in supply and demand, we should see a ton more adoption. But we can all kind of see where this is going to end up, right? There's a lot of people who are clamoring to make this happen. There's competition coming in the market. It's highly likely we're going to see a lot more than 9 million adoptions of these types of drugs. And start to eat up a bigger chunk of that billion people? And if so, like, potentially it's going to change a lot of things for a lot of businesses. And if you're one of those businesses, I think, that really thrives on dopamine, whether it's casino or sugar or fat or fast food, like a lot of us have done very well in business by giving people what they want. And what they've wanted has often not been very healthy and often been stuff that, well, maybe they shouldn't have been doing. And if you own a small business or work at one, that, that works on this kind of principle of getting people dopamine hits. Maybe you have to look for a future in which, well, demand's not going to go away for your type of service, but will definitely be restricted as more and more people get on these drugs. Whatever happens, it'll be pretty interesting to watch. Oh, and one more thing. A Goldman Sachs study showed that 1 to 3% increase in our national GDP could happen because of widespread adoption of these GLP-1 inhibitors. Uh, that's pretty crazy. And ultimately their logic was that people becoming less obese would create a situation in which workers were healthier, we had reduced healthcare costs, and they could be more productive for longer and miss less work. Uh, and as somebody who works in a business and owns some businesses, that would be really nice. Sick employees and high healthcare costs are definitely not fun at all.
