Incrementality measurement ranges from disruptive user-level holdouts and geo-tests to low-disruption media-mix models, each with tradeoffs. Large controls give statistical purity but cost money and user trust. MMM requires injecting volatility into campaigns to work. The best choice depends on your channel's native capabilities and what you can actually run.
Chapters
What are the types of measurement techniques that are less disruptive, that sort of keep you a little further out of the way of the marketers? And then every measurement technique comes with trade-offs. So what are those trade-offs and how do you think about navigating that? To go to one extreme, the most disruptive is to hold out half a country or to turn off an entire channel, something along those lines. That could be a user-level test that requires a 50% holdout. That's my cleanest read of what the true incremental impact, and that's something I really want to know. But is keeping a 50% control going to be more valuable than keeping a 10% control from an analytics point of view? Yes, but maybe not enough to change the decisions that you would be making. There's geo tests, but geo tests often require restarting a campaign. They require changing something that people may believe is already working very effectively. So you have to balance that need. I know that geo tests are great for their transparency. They are very easy to explain to someone. I turn this place off and let's see what happens. And so they really build trust really effectively. Geotests, I think, can be disruptive too. The less disruptive end of things, I would say, is a media mix model or some kind of regression where you're saying, let's see what happened and how does that impact our ability to predict these things. It is a less disruptive way of measuring. It can be disruptive again when you say, well, I need to feed this model with some volatility and I need to pulse and I need to do these things. That's not the way that I would necessarily be operating if measurement was not my goal. Some channels do lend themselves very well to kind of platform-level, user-level holdouts, things like that, they're not very disruptive. So it does depend on the kind of functionality available per channel.