#88 - Three Breakthroughs: The latest in AI, Net Neutrality, and Drones

Welcome back to The Tech Optimist, the podcast where we uncover the ideas and innovations shaping the future. Today, we're diving into an exciting 3 Breakthroughs episode where we'll explore cutting-edge advancements that are pushing the boundaries of what's possible. From trailblazing AI models and record-breaking funding announcements to unbelievable tech applications in the natural world, we're uncovering stories from— that highlight human ingenuity and our relentless drive for progress. So buckle up, it's time to get inspired and optimistic about what lies ahead. We're gonna get some housekeeping outta the way now, but then we're gonna dive right into the show. So hang tight.

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As a reminder, the Tech Optimist podcast is for informational purposes only. It is not personalized advice, and it is not an offer to buy or sell securities. For additional important details, please see the text description accompanying this episode. Welcome to the first 3 Breakthroughs episode of 2025. Mike Collins and Lucas Pash dive headfirst in the transformative tech trends shaping the new year.

I try to do this with one of our young and rising talents, and this quarter I'm going to do it with Lucas.

Thank you so much. And as a recently minted 34-year-old with a newborn, I appreciate being called young. Young and up-and-coming. I appreciate that.

So they kick things off with a thrilling discussion about AI's unstoppable momentum. From OpenAI's jaw-dropping updates to Google's Gemini research assistant, they unpack how these tools are rewriting the rules of productivity and problem-solving. Next, they explore a fascinating new frontier: physical AI. Lukas highlights NVIDIA's vision for robotics that adapt, think, and act, hinting at a not-so-distant future where AI Isn't just digital, but deeply integrated into the physical world. The conversation then heats up as they tackle net neutrality's repeal. Mike and Lucas break down the game-changing ruling and its potential impact on internet fairness, innovation, and even your favorite streaming service and how that might play into all of this. And then lastly, they round things out this episode with a look at drones and how robotics are shaping logistics. From Amazon's decade-long journey to launch drone delivery to Waymo's self-driving taxis hitting the streets, 2023 2025 is poised to revolutionize how we live, work, and move. Now, this episode is a rollercoaster ride of tech breakthroughs, bold bets, and future possibilities. So buckle up and let's dive into it.

Hey, welcome to the new year and this episode of 3 Breakthroughs, an Alumni Ventures podcast. In 2025, we're offering this, uh, exclusively to our AV customers. So it's something that, uh, you know, we have something like 11,000 customers now. They value, um, what we're talking about, what we're thinking about, what we're excited about. So we're gonna just hop right into it. It seems like, um, you know, we're recording this on January 8th. The last month has been a little crazy. I'm going to just— I just think we have to recognize that the pace of AI is just continuing to be mind-boggling, that we had, you know, we have trillion-dollar companies in kind of blood sport And we had OpenAI with kind of the 12 Days of AI, kind of introducing new models, new features, new price points. We had a bunch of commentary coming from Sam Altman about feeling that we're on the path to, you know, agents, superintelligence. That, you know, that this is now near-term, not long-term. And I think just people are very excited about kind of the power of these models. Every day they're able to solve harder things. I think there's a recognition that, you know, some of it is overkill for normal people looking at normal things. But if you're doing hard, hard stuff, there is now, you know, a model and a pricing tier that is still disruptively advantageous to you over, you know, hiring 3 PhD students to do the work. I also think it has been very clear that Google is in the game in a full-throated way with Gemini. Their research tool, where you put in a prompt, it goes searches 50 to 100 websites, writes a research report that is commensurate with an MBA in minutes, is just one example of it, as well as access to its reasoning models. So, you know, I was talking to a group at lunch today about, you know, AI is more than one thing. There's definitely kind of the research angle. There's definitely the language model to help you write better. There's definitely reasoning, which takes you through multiple steps of problem solving. That is shipping, and it is shipping in a disruptively compelling way. And I think we are on the verge of even more powerful reasoning models. And then I think agents are coming where the ability to take multi-step business tasks, break them down, and assign some or all of that workflow to software is coming and coming fast. So I think just the pace of innovation and change Um, is happening quickly. I think a lot of the inside scuttlebutt is 2025 may even, if not exceed, at least match the pace of 2024. So I think if we look at how much has been accomplished in this front in 2024, I think we're going to see at least that amount, if not more, in 2025. So— Yeah. You know, I think it is impacting jobs today. I think it is starting to impact employment. I think there are groups of small companies that are trying to do the work of big companies. I think there are big companies that are hiring 5 people, not 50 people. And I, and I think there's efficiency. I think there is quality. And then there are companies like ours where we're saying it's like, hey, we're the— we hold the number of people constant, but we want 2 to 3x productivity and outcomes and, uh, all the good stuff. So I think that would be my kind of, you know, 5-minute flash report around the horn about stuff going on with all these amazing companies.

Yeah, I think that's an insightful take on where AI is heading in 2025. And I'd be remiss if I didn't add on to that, where on top of these new powerful models that are driving incredible change in research and in enterprises, you gotta think also about Jensen Huang's keynote address at CES earlier this week where he—

Must listen. And just incredible.

Tech enthusiasts, listen up. Jensen Huang, NVIDIA's founder and CEO, brought the house down at CES 2025 with a keynote bursting with innovation and big ideas. Here's what you need to know from this 90-minute powerhouse presentation. If you haven't seen it already, definitely, definitely recommend a listen and a watch because the keynote is just fantastic. Huang described the first leap in AI evolution, coining it the era of physical AI. This includes NVIDIA Cosmos, a revolutionary development platform designed for robotics and autonomous vehicles, offering tools to build world foundation models for physical AI systems. And then gaming fans, you're going to love this. NVIDIA unveiled the GeForce RTX 50 Series GPUs built with Blackwell architecture, delivering unprecedented realism and performance for gamers and creators alike. And for developers, Huang introduced Project Digits, a personal AI supercomputer designed to supercharge innovation by bringing NVIDIA Grace Blackwell capabilities right to your desktop. Partnerships also took center stage. So NVIDIA is collaborating with Toyota to redefine autonomous vehicles and with companies like Keon and Accenture to integrate AI across various industries. Robotics was another highlight, with NVIDIA teasing major advancements in Agentic AI and humanoid robots capable of adaptive actions. From AI foundation models to RTX PCs to drone-like robots reshaping logistics, Huang painted a picture of 2025 powered by AI that doesn't just think, it acts. And as he said, this is the year AI moves from digital to physical.

The tectonic shift that he's talking about in robotics as well, like the rise of physical AI. You know, for years, the promise of AI has been mostly confined to the digital world, analyzing data, generating content, automating workflows. But NVIDIA's vision and Jensen's vision, you know, goes a lot further, bringing AI into the tangible physical world where robots aren't just executing deterministic tasks, but really like thinking and adapting and acting.

They're running the whole farm. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know if that's a 2025 thing that is, you know, in market, but the path is getting illuminated more quickly than we thought.

And I do think, you know, I think it's very important for those of us that are interested in technology and innovation and venture capital. It's very important to listen to these voices. And so I think it's kind of required listening to hear You know, Jensen's CES keynote. I think you've got to look at, you know, when Sam Altman does a tweetstorm about reflections on 2024 or predictions in 2025, you need to read that stuff. They have the most information, the most insight, the most money, and they're in a— and they are in To the benefit of humanity, they are in a now very competitive environment where they're all trying to outdo each other, find their niche, think about what's next before chess moves ahead. And these are also very smart, incredibly talented people. So, you know, one does well by listening intently to these conversations. And yeah, I agree, Lucas. I think 2025. You know, could be the year of the robot, right? I think, um, there was cool stuff at CES. Clearly we've seen this in the drone world, um, where it's redefining kind of, you know, military information. Uh, you know, you have a $50,000, you know, drone taking out a $5 million tank. So, I mean, I think I think this stuff is going to really start hitting the world of consumers and work a lot in the next 24 months. What do you have? What's your second breakthrough of the week you want to talk about?

Yeah, so I don't know if breakthrough is the word that I use on this one, but just a hot topic in technology and the internet that has to be discussed, a recent ruling But by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals struck down federal net neutrality protections, which allows now internet service providers, ISPs, to prioritize, to throttle, or block or promote.

They used the Chevron ruling, I believe.

Yeah.

Again, for our listeners that aren't familiar with this, that this was a pretty significant, I think it was 2024 Supreme Court ruling. It basically said a lot of federal agencies have to really prove that they have explicit mandates to do stuff or prove it in court. Yeah. And so, it throws into questions a lot. And again, we're not taking sides on good, bad, appropriate ruling or not, but it is the ruling and it has significant impact for regulation, And this is one of the first examples of it, which is, you know, hey, Congress did not authorize this agency to do it, so we're striking it down. And if you disagree, let's go to court.

Yeah, or if you disagree, you know, Congress, like, you know, remove political gridlock and actually give us some better guidance on what we can and cannot do. So in this case, the court basically decided, you know, Congress never explicitly told the FCC to treat ISPs like utilities. So their net neutrality rules were considered to be, by this court, an overreach. And now the responsibility for net neutrality shifts to Congress. But without clear laws, ISPs have more freedom now to dictate how we access the internet. And without taking sides, because there are good points to be made on it. Oh yeah, for sure. Like the way that I, you know, talk about it with people is like, imagine trying to watch your favorite TV show on Netflix. You know, maybe you're pulling up Squid Game season 2, but Xfinity slows down the streaming performance because Netflix and Xfinity failed to, you know, come to an agreement on how much Netflix would pay for the fast lane access. Maybe Netflix is not the best example because they're well-resourced. Maybe it's Paramount Plus. Yeah. You know, those scenarios are a possibility following this decision. And for years, net neutrality has been the principle that all internet traffic should be treated equally. And this court decision kind of flips that on its head and suggests ISPs should not be treated like utilities. Rather, they should be responsive to free market dynamics and pressures that encourage quality service and innovation. So it'll be interesting. You know, ISPs are not just gonna turn around— like, we shouldn't expect ISPs to turn around and be like, we're gonna throttle the crap out of you now because we can. Right. Because that would be a terrible customer experience. I think opponents of this new policy—

And it's likely— and if they did that, it would likely lead to congressional action.

Yes.

So this is where businesses are going to, I think, in these cases, try to walk a fine line, which is, I want to do enough to maximize value for my business while not triggering legislation which is explicitly doing what I don't want to be done, right?

Yeah.

So I think this is a great case study of the profound nature, nature of this ruling and how it can and it will impact people's lives, good and bad. Yeah.

And we'll, we'll, we'll see also, um, you know, opponents of, of, of what just happened, um, in striking down net neutrality will say, okay, sure, you know, you don't want, you know, the IS— it's not in the ISP's best interest to throttle people unnecessarily, but a lot of these ISPs operate in somewhat, you know, monopolistic capacity in a lot of different regions. So they're not— it's not, you know, the free market competitive nature that you would want to make sure that they're keeping, you know, a service quality out there for customers. So—

I mean, this is—

Interesting argument.

This is always one of the issues where people just fall back on a quick and easy kind of libertarian, let the market decide things, where if you're in northern Maine, there's one provider of a lot of services. It is not a free market. And so if you want to say, hey, that's tough luck, that's economically tough beans that you live in a remote area with one ISP provider. Okay, that's the kind of society, you know, we want to live in. I don't think that's always the case. I think there are still parts of society and life here where we say, hey, um, we are a community, we are a country, there is— there are things that we want to exist for all people. And so, but again, that's where, you know, Congress, it has to act and be explicit about it and not just— Hey, we're just going to give this to the FTC and they're going to do whatever the hell they want. Because sometimes what they do, I think, is always well-meaning, but that isn't necessarily the right way to do it.

So hey, if it gets more and more expensive to watch Squid Games, you might find an issue here that unites both sides of the aisle.

You will definitely— that there will definitely be people hauled in front of Congress if If, you know, their favorite shows, you know, are getting throttled. So—

So let's talk about the major court ruling that could change how you experience the internet. On January 2nd, 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit struck down the FCC's net neutrality rules. So here's what that means. The court decided that broadband providers like your internet company are classified as offering an information service. Not a utility. Because of this, the FCC doesn't have the legal authority to enforce net neutrality. So those rules that make sure all internet traffic is treated equally. This decision follows the Supreme Court's 2024 overruling of the Chevron Doctrine, which we've talked about quite a few times on this show, which limited how federal agencies can interpret ambiguous laws. Now, internet service providers have more freedom to prioritize, slow down, or even block certain sites or services. So now imagine Sarah, a small business owner in northern Maine running an online shop. Her internet service is provided by her local ISP available in her area, a common situation in rural communities. With the recent court ruling eliminating federal net neutrality rules, her ISP can now prioritize certain websites or services for additional fees or throttle access to others. For Sarah, this might mean slower load times for her website unless she pays extra for a faster service. Streaming platforms she uses for marketing or customer engagement like Zoom or YouTube could also face slower speeds if they don't strike deals with her ISP. In areas like hers where competition among ISPs is almost nonexistent, Sarah has little recourse to switch providers. So this could lead to higher costs for her small business and potentially alienate her customers due to poor online experience. Meanwhile, in urban areas with more ISP options, businesses may remain relatively unaffected, further increasing the urban-rural digital divide. This example highlights how the court's decision could disproportionately impact those in remote regions, reinforcing the need for state-level protections or alternative solutions to ensure fair internet access. Now, Mike and Lucas here are going to talk about both sides of this argument, where the other side Being where we need more innovation in the field. Kind of like an opportunity for more people to be innovative and to create solutions around this, really. Commercial break incoming. Sit tight, we'll be back.

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The last one is again kind of Amazon really, you know, I think this is the bigger story of drones. We talked about this a little bit, 2025 being a year of robotics. CES had a bunch of consumer stuff that looked super interesting. There are clearly now robots that are going to come out at the $1,000 to $2,000 range that are going to be able to do things in your home, providing security, providing simple task management. These things are coming. I think they're going to be affordable. I think The delivery. And again, some of this is happening and we're probably a little behind to what's going on in China, but the ability to kind of get food delivery from a drone to kind of drop it on your porch exists there much better than it does in the United States. But, you know, Amazon has some stuff coming. Yeah. And, you know, the percentage of Americans who get stuff from Amazon on a weekly basis is enormous. And so, you know, I think 2025 is the year where, you know, 2024 we started to see with Waymo robotaxis, right? And for people in San Francisco and a few other markets that have experienced them, they love them. And you look at market share for Waymo in San Francisco is growing up really, really fast. Yeah. And like a lot of things that start in California and bleed to the rest of the country, that just says, you know, in 5 years that's in Des Moines. And, you know, in 10 years it's everywhere. So, you know, Waymo was 20— the story of self-driving taxis, 2024, I was out in Vegas, was starting to see them. Yep. Um, and I think 2025 is, you're gonna see drone delivery starting to, again, few markets, anecdotal weird shit happening that'll make the local news. But I, I, I think that this is, 2025 is gonna be the year where, you know, you're gonna get your, uh, you know, your stuff dropped on your porch.

Yeah.

So let's talk about Waymo, the autonomous driving company that's been redefining how we think about transportation. Their journey from experimental tech to practical innovation is nothing short of remarkable. Waymo vehicles have now covered over 40 million miles on public roads, including operations in urban hubs like San Francisco and Phoenix. In fact, in 2024, Waymo saw a 30% year-over-year increase in ride requests across its operational cities, with over 250,000 monthly users opting for self-driving rides. So what's fueling this growth? Waymo's ability to operate efficiently in complex environments is what is fueling it. Recent reports highlight their Phoenix operations, where 80% of rides are fully autonomous with no backup driver on board. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, they've seen significant adoption with 50% of rides autonomous, a huge leap compared to just 2 years ago. Waymo's impact is expanding beyond the consumer market as well. Partnerships with logistics companies are piloting autonomous delivery and freight services, contributing to Waymo's $2 billion revenue forecast for 2025. So whether it's commuting, delivering packages, or simply navigating city streets, Waymo is accelerating toward a fully autonomous future. And it seems like 2025 is shaping up to be the year where self-driving truly becomes the mainstream.

I think 2025, you know, on Waymo, I think 2025 is the year where, at least in San Francisco, you get more Waymo rides by volume over the course of the year than you do, you know, driven Uber and Lyft rides. I think you start to see that happen.

I mean, you look at the charts, it's just happening, right?

Yeah. Yeah. And for Amazon and the drone delivery program, I mean, what a testament to how much effort and resourcing this takes. Jeff Bezos first announced Amazon's drone delivery program, I think it was like a 60 Minutes episode in 2013. Right. And it felt like a really big, audacious claim. This symbol of Amazon's obsession with pushing boundaries. But it took over a decade to materialize. But I think this is the year, 2024. There were— FAA kind of shifted its guidelines about letting Amazon operate its drones out of sight. So it officially made it possible for them to take this on. And they've been launching in Arizona and Texas. I think they've already sent, they say, thousands of packages in those 2 states. There's not a lot of detail. But they're finally taking flight. They have a lot of ground to work on for coming down the cost curve. You know, the New York Times did a big exposé on, on their program just, just a few weeks ago. I think they could only operate like 7 drones inside of an hour right now. And it's one package at a time.

Yeah, it's sucky.

So, but it's, it's, it's happening though. And it's, it's cool to see them take flight.

No. And again, I think it also points to a couple of things. One is, listen, we all believe in capitalism. We all like— we hate monopolies. We want innovators. But, you know, sometimes things just take a lot of money and a lot of time, and, and it takes an entrepreneurial persona who just is going to be insanely committed and persistent and gritty to solve problems. Mm-hmm. And, you know, Bezos falls into that category, which he has for 30 years been willing to make big bets, big investments, do hard things, fail, do things that take a decade of trial and error and sticking with it. Um, and yeah. Yeah. Um, he's one of the richest men in the world because he's basically compounded a bet in one company over and over and over again. For 30 years, right? And so I'm not deifying him or Musk or any of these guys, but I think you have to acknowledge that, you know, society gets moved forward by innovators and innovative companies doing hard things and doing things that are more than just what's going to be a quick buck for the next quarter. So I think when they solve— when they have breakthroughs like Waymo, I mean, again, think of the money, the time Google put into that to just make it work in one city. Enormous. Probably beyond the capital of private venture capital. It took a huge company willing to make a big-ass bet for a long period of time to see that. But that's worth doing. So hats off, drones, AI innovation. 2025 is gonna be an amazing year. Buckle up.

Buckle up. And indeed, it's gonna be a ride.

All right, we'll do it again next week. Thank you, Lucas.

Thanks, Mike.

See ya.

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