Bary’s Top 10 Stocks for 2024

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Hi everyone, I'm Jack Howe, but never mind that, and this is the Barron's StreetWise podcast. I want to tell you about a very special guest we have on this week's show. Uh, listening in is our audio producer Jackson Cantrell. It's not Jackson. We're delighted to have him. He's not the special guest. Hi, Jackson.

Hey, Jack.

And smiling right in front of me, the bespectacled face— that means wearing glasses— of Andrew Barry, Barron's own Andrew Barry. Hi, Andrew.

Great to be here with you, Jack.

Nice to have you. I love this time of year when you come out with the top stock picks, top 10 stocks for the year ahead for Barron's. Very exciting always to talk about stock picks from somebody who knows a thing or two about finding them, who has had some success in that field. I'm not the most successful stock picker around. I don't think it's any secret, but you do a great job with this. Let's talk about— I want to go into your 10 picks for the year ahead. Let's just talk about the stock market in general first off. How are we looking for next year? Is there more upside here? Is there more meat on this bone for investors? Did we get Is the getting still good?

I think so. I think the, you know, the stock market today as we speak is the S&P 500 is up about 25% this year, within about half a percentage point of the record set in early 2022. So obviously, we've had a good run this year, but many sectors have been left behind. Consumer staples, some of the financials, utilities, telecom. And so there's, I mean, there's still a lot of places to look, I think, for value right now. It's obviously been a market led by the Magnificent Seven stocks, the big seven tech stocks and others which have driven this market. So it actually could be a pretty good year. I mean, we had another good inflation reading today and it's looking like the Fed's gonna be cutting rates next year. And that could be a good backdrop with $5 trillion or so money market funds potentially looking for a new home in stocks.

I'm looking at your record from last year. You picked 10 stocks last year. The average return was 31%. Since you picked them, and that compares with 24.5% by— hold on, let me get out the calculator. You clobbered the market by 6.5 points. I mean, that's— now you don't even take 2.2% on that. You don't take a percentage of readers' assets for that. Just for the price of their Barron's, they get that kind of—

Yeah, for $5 a week. We haven't changed the COVID price in many, many years. So it's actually a pretty— I think a pretty good bargain right now. And if I took 2.2%, Those gains would essentially, relative gains would melt away. I'd have no alpha. So, you know, that shows you that 2 and 20 is a big hurdle in terms of beating the market. So, but—

You got a pitch in for the magazine and bonus points for using the word alpha. So, we're off to a great start. What worked? What did you have to do last year? What was the key to getting some upside?

Well, I mean, 3 key stocks worked last year. I mean, I was actually bullish unlike many people at the start of '20. 23 on the market and on the big tech stocks. I thought Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet were actually quite attractive at those levels. We put Amazon and Alphabet, the parent of Google, on the list. They're up 50-ish percent plus. The biggest winner though was homebuilder Toll Brothers, which more than doubled. It's the biggest luxury homebuilder. So, my thought then was that Toll was trading below book value and that people were really very bearish on housing and that the stock's going to do well. It's done, it did even better than I thought.

Okay, look, this is, uh, this is great, but it's old news. People want to hear about—

let's spin this forward, Jack. People don't care about last year anymore.

People want to hear about what's next. Let's get right to the top 10 stocks for 2024. And the first is— shocking controversy right out of the gate because you've picked— I guess these are in alphabetical order— Alibaba Group. I think Alibaba Group— I think, okay, that's, that's a great tech company you've got there. It's just in a in a place that seems a little risky to invest in, in China. Tell me about what you like about Alibaba.

Well, people say it's a great company in the wrong place, which is China. But I mean, Alibaba stock's now around $74 right now. It hasn't moved basically since its IPO almost 10 years ago. Earnings are up fivefold, revenues are up tenfold. The stock is arguably one of the cheapest big stocks in the world. Forward P/E is around 8 or 9, a third of the market cap in cash. Then you have a lot of other stakes as well. Throw them in, it's even cheaper. I just think that this stock is too cheap right now given the China risk and all the other negatives that are well known about the whole situation with the US-Chinese relations. So to me—

But how do you handicap that kind of thing where a government could just step in and sort of make arbitrary decisions that could be good or bad for this company, could be disastrous if they wanted? How do you think about that sort of risk?

It's hard to handicap. You've had some of that. I just don't think China wants to destroy some of its largest companies in that while there've been some back and forth between China and particularly with Jack Ma, the founder of the company, who's essentially not really much involved anymore. My view is that e-commerce is important in China. This is a major player in e-commerce and a lot of other things, and that it's in the interest of China to kind of let this company flourish and do well and provide jobs and profits for its own shareholders.

And as you say, cheap to my eye here, based on what you put for the, you know, relative to next year's earnings, it's about a third of the price or less of the big tech companies here in the US. So it's very, very cheap.

It's got about 15% of the market cap of Amazon.com, which is, you know, its closest comp. It's a small dividend, they're paying about 1%. They could pay a bigger dividend, they could buy back more stock. There are a lot of potential catalysts. I mean, the, the risk of China, but if things improve in terms of US-China relations, this stock could do very well. It's almost an option on China, and I think it's a relatively cheap option given the valuation.

And as you said earlier, you had Alphabet and Amazon on last year's list. One of them remains on this year's list, and it is Alphabet. Why have you picked Alphabet?

Well, Alphabet, I think, has got the best combination among the Big 7 of growth and valuation. Alphabet's actually been doing quite well the last week or so since our list came out, is up about 4 or 5%. But even around $140 right now, it's trading for about 20-ish times forward earnings. I mean, earnings could grow 15-ish% next year. It's got a great franchise, unassailable. There's some concern about the whole AI situation in terms of just how that's gonna affect their search business. It looks manageable. And this company's got a great balance sheet and it, and it's basically the leader in search. There's some to-do about antitrust, there's some to-do about the Apple relationship. I think both those things are manageable right now.

Where's the growth gonna come from? Just bigger and better things for the search business, monetizing some other businesses that it doesn't yet make so much money on? What do you think is gonna—

I mean, I think you have growth from their cloud business. They're basically a number 3 there. I mean, they're not nearly as big as Amazon and Microsoft, which are the dominant players, but they're building up that business. You have YouTube, you've got, you know, they've got their Android business. I mean, they're paying about $15, $20 billion. I mean, rumor to be paying for Apple to have their search engine be the default on iPhones. You know, there's some concern that goes away. If it goes away, they're gonna save $15 or $20 billion. So that could actually be a positive. If they broke this thing up, it actually might be a positive because some of the parts could be worth more than the whole.

You've got Barrick Gold on the list. So you have to like gold in order to like Barrick Gold. Would you prefer to have Think investors are better off with the metal or better off with the miner?

Well, they have been much better with the metal in the last 5 or 10 years than the miners. I mean, the miners have been flattish while the gold prices are up 50, 60%. Gold's above $2,000 an ounce right now. The miners have not been a good place to be. They've had higher costs. They've had a whole bunch of issues that have kind of stood in the way. Valuations have come down. I mean, Barrick, I think, could be one of the best of the bunch in the gold sector. Trading for about 15 or 16 times forward earnings. It's well run. They've got a swashbuckling CEO, Mark Bristow, who's a big game hunter. He's from South Africa. And they have mines in— they have their biggest mines in Nevada, which they share with Newmont. They've got one in the Dominican Republic. They're the biggest gold miner in Africa. So it's an interesting play on gold. I think gold could do well this year as interest rates come down. And I think the Fed really starts to pivot toward lower rates, and that tends to be a good environment for gold. You could see gold moving much higher, and this stock could play some catch-up versus where it's been.

When you say swashbuckling CEO, I have always wanted to be described as swashbuckling. It hasn't happened yet. I can hardly say it. What do you have to do as a CEO to be described that way?

Well, you have to be a— yeah, he's kind of a swashbuckler in the old Errol Flynn mode. I mean, I think, and Coffee sleeves, carries around a cutlass, go ahead. Yeah, I mean, he's like, he likes to go, he's a big game hunter. You can see him with a lot of like trophy trophies, which some of his kills, you can debate whether that's good or bad. But he actually, one thing he likes to do is he's a hands-on guy. He visits every one of the major mines 3 times a year. He'll sleep in the mines. I mean, he's not a prissy, fancy guy. And so And I think that's unusual for a major company right now. The valuation of this company is, it's pretty high right now. It's in the $30 billion range. It's one of the two largest gold miners in the world. It's them and Newmont. And I think, I mean, you can kind of do six of one, half dozen of the other, but I think both of them could do well this year.

Okay, let's do one more before we take a break. I know what people are thinking, by my math, that's only 4 stocks. We'll have done 4 stocks and that means we'll have 6 to go. Why aren't we taking a break after 5. You know what, maybe I am a bit of a swashbuckler because that's how I'm going to roll. And when we come back with 6 left, we're going to buzz right through them. But let's get to Berkshire Hathaway. Now, Andrew, you have followed Berkshire for a long time. You are the resident Buffettologist at Barron's. We were sad to hear about the death of Charlie Munger recently. Talk to me about a little bit about Charlie's passing and talk to me about what you like about Berkshire stock here.

Well, I mean, Charlie died recently at age 99. He was an influential person at Berkshire. He was kind of the right-hand man. He was almost a little bit of the Ed McMahon to the Johnny Carson, who was of course Warren Buffett. And no, his role though, I think in terms of management day-to-day was actually pretty modest. And especially in the last 5 or 10 years, it's Warren's show, it's Buffett's show. He's 93 right now. I mean, the problem obviously for Berkshire is that, you know, he has a limited tenure as CEO, but I think he could be doing this for 3 or 4 more years. He's sharp. Open, engaged, and I think loves the job. He said he tap dances to work every day if he could. He can't tap dance anymore because I think he's a little bit— I mean, in terms of mobility, but he gets around.

I'm not holding that against him.

No, you don't hold that against Warren. The stock is— I mean, that's actually been a laggard this year. It's up around 15% this year, about 10 percentage points behind the S&P 500. It's very well run. It's got a lot of cash, $150 billion plus in cash. It's got about $40 billion of earnings power. It's about 20 times forward earnings. The valuation I think is pretty reasonable at around 1.4 times book value and about, as I said, about 20 times forward earnings with some quote unquote optionality. If Buffett can find this elephant-sized acquisition, as he's called it, that he's long been searching for, for the last, you know, 10, 15 years. I mean, he could do a $50 billion, $50 or $100 billion deal. One possibility is Occidental Petroleum, which they already own almost 30% of. He said he doesn't want to buy it, but I think, you know, it's possible he could change his mind there.

The ticker symbols on the stocks we've mentioned— Alibaba is BABA, Alphabet is GOOGL, Barrick Gold, the ticker there is just GOLD, and Berkshire Hathaway of course is BRK.B if you want the lower-cost shares. If you're a big spender, it's.A for the, uh, for the pricey shares. Um, and those are the first 4 of the top 10 stock picks for the year ahead. We'll be back with the remaining 6. We're listening to Andrew Berry, on the Barron Streetwise podcast back right after this break.

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Welcome back, Andrew. Just after we left for the break, Jackson was telling me that I I sound like a radio guy. He said, I keep mentioning the name of the podcast and the guest. He says, you know, you don't really have to do that on a podcast. That's like what a radio person would do. But okay, you know, I'll try to be more podcasty. What do you think? Wait, now you're a radio— you've been doing some radio?

Yeah, I was just on John Catsimatidis' show here in New York, 77, the old WABC, which is like used to be the biggest AM station in the country.

He ran for mayor. Do I remember that right?

Yeah, he ran for mayor. He's big in the Republican Party in New York, which doesn't mean a lot 'cause the Republicans don't really have any power in this city. But I mean, he's a player with the Republicans. He's a billionaire. He owns a bunch of grocery stores here in New York and a bunch of other stuff.

Did you like doing that show?

Well, he's a pretty good radio personality. He's got a very highly rated show.

Yeah, how long were you on that show for?

We were about 10 minutes talking about my favorite topic, which is Berkshire Hathaway.

Was that better than this? Is that what you're saying?

No, I mean, I think, I think you're better.

You actually know, I can't promise to be, I can't promise to be as good as Ketsuma, uh, made us, but I can promise to keep you here longer. That's my, that's my vow to you. It's, I think it's already been longer. Um, next up is BioNTech. BioNTech, the ticker there is BNTX. And what do you like about BioNTech?

You know, I'm a sucker for cash-rich companies. I like cash-rich companies, and this is one of the most cash-rich companies that you can fine right now. It's the partner for Pfizer with the COVID vaccine. It's a German company. It's a biotechnology company. The problem for the company is that COVID vaccine sales are basically plunging, and so is the stock. Stock's around $100 right now, but they have about $80 a share in net cash and investments as a company. So you're paying a very little— a small price for the essentially the COVID franchise and for the pipeline, which is mostly oncology-oriented.

Wait, the cash came from the sort of COVID windfall, the sales of all those COVID drugs. And so now that COVID business must have fallen off quite a bit, right? So it's a question what they're going to do next with that cash.

Yeah, I mean, that's the issue. I mean, the company— again, the stock's about a $25 billion market cap. There's about $17 or $18 billion worth of cash. What do they do with it? I think that their vaccine sales should be significant enough to keep them Essentially around breakeven. The question is, how does their pipeline advance? What do they do with the cash? Do they pay out to shareholders? They pay much of a dividend, or do they do an acquisition? They made a big acquisition. That probably would be a negative because they would be blowing some of the cash on an uncertain prospect for an acquisition. And that's, that's one of the risks there with BioNTech right now. The stock was about $300 or $400 at the peak when people were crazy for COVID plays, and now it's back around $100. So to me, it's an interesting option on their pipeline. And, you know, there's some concern now with this latest strain of COVID so maybe people start getting the vaccine more than they have been before.

Everybody has turned their attention to the obesity drugs. No one is paying attention to the regular old vaccine makers, but I guess that has left shares cheap. Chevron. Big oil. You got to have some big oil exposure, and Chevron is your pick. Why Chevron?

Chevron has been the laggard in the group in 2023. It's down about 15%. It's been the worst performer among the super majors, which include Exxon, Shell, and BP. But it's looking reasonably attractive right now. The stock's around $150 right now. That's about 10 times forward earnings, about a 4% dividend yield. It's interesting. This company was basically viewed as being the best managed major oil company just about a year or two ago. Mike Wirth was gracing covers as being the top energy executive of the world. Some of the sheen has come off. I think we had—

He was on the podcast, right, Jackson?

Oh yeah.

Okay. Just a self-serving. Yeah.

I mean, you might've had him on because he was viewed as being the best energy exec in the world. Some of the sheen's come off the Chevron story. They've had some issues with production shortfalls in Kazakhstan and also in the Permian where they're a major driller for oil and a producer. And their deal for Hess, which is about $55, $60 billion, was viewed as kind of a Investors are lukewarm on that. So, you know, it's interesting. But, you know, the heat's on internally at Chevron. There was apparently a memo sent recently by the CFO to the staff saying we've got to up our game in 2024. We did not perform as well as we should have in 2023. So I like to see when companies actually acknowledge they basically have not been doing as well as they can be doing and kind of want to turn up the heat. I mean, internally and try to do better.

What happens with the price of oil from here? You have shale drillers in the US that have shown tremendous discipline and restraint on production that has kept the price of oil and profits in the industry, you know, somewhat robust. Is that going to continue going forward?

Well, actually, I mean, you've seen increased US production. I think some of the discipline seems to have faded a little bit, but you've also, you know, have a situation in the Middle East where you've got attacks in the Red Sea from some Iranian-backed rebels. So, Oil's around $75 a barrel now. I think it could go higher in the next year. I think the age of oil is going to last longer. Oil demand is about 100 million barrels a day right now. Supply is about the same amount. I think oil demand is going to remain at that level, even move higher for the next 10 years. And you've got to replace a lot of that production. And there's not been a huge amount of capital investment in this industry. So to my mind, the oil price could bias higher. And Chevron's got a pretty good reserve base right now. And despite some of the The story kind of not playing out as well as people hoped. I think Mike Wirth is still quite a good CEO. And I think it's one of the better stories in the big oil patch right now.

Hertz Global Holdings. What are we talking about here? Wasn't this a meme stock? This was like, it was a meme stock, but then it worked out, right? Did I get that right?

It was a meme stock. It was in bankruptcy. It was actually a successful story in bankruptcy, which almost never happens. Generally, investors get wiped out, equity investors, in a bankruptcy. Hertz was basically killing it during COVID because there was a shortage of cars and basically people were post-COVID, they were traveling. Profits soared and this company was able to emerge from bankruptcy. But the stock is essentially almost round trip. The stock was around $10 coming out of bankruptcy. Now it's back around and now it's back to $10 after hitting more than $20. The story at Hertz is it's essentially an oligopoly in the rental car business in the United States. Avis Enterprise and Hertz. They made a big push into EVs about a year or two ago. They wanted to have about a quarter of their fleet be electric. They had a big purchase from Tesla of Tesla cars. That's turned out to be a disaster actually. What's happened is that the repair cost of EVs has been high. The residual value of the cars when they sell them has been weaker than expected because Elon keeps cutting the price of the cars. So basically this much ballyhooed EV push, which got a lot of publicity, which goosed the stock, is turning into a bust. But I think they can get through that. And the industry should remain rational. You have 3 major players with about 90% of the market. It's trading pretty cheaply for about 7 or 8 times forward earnings right now. And the market cap is only a couple billion dollars right now. There's an investor group that owns about 60% of it right now. They can make an offer to buy the whole company. So, we'll see what happens during 2024. Wall Street's lukewarm on this story. I think it could turn out better.

Madison Square Garden Sports. What do you like about that stock? I can never keep my head around the ownership and the structures and the way all these different companies play together. It's like a big Jenga puzzle of traded companies. Where does this fit in and what do you like about it?

Well, you know, it's a complicated empire. This is one of the Dolan companies, is controlled by the Dolan family. Jim Dolan, James Dolan is the is effectively the head of Madison Square Garden. There are 3 companies, Madison Square Garden Sports, which owns the New York Knicks and Rangers. They have Madison Square Garden Entertainment, which owns Madison Square Garden, the arena in Manhattan. And then another company called Sphere, which owns the cable network. So, basically, essentially, the empire's in 3 pieces right now. Madison Square Garden Sports is essentially a pure play on the New York Knicks and Rangers, which are 2 of the most valuable franchises in their league, which are the NBA and the NHL. Right now, the story essentially is this. The market cap of MSG Sports is around $4 billion right now. Those teams are recently appraised for about $10 billion in total by Sportico, which does rankings and valuation of the teams. So you're buying it for about 50 cents on the dollar in terms of what the value of the teams are. The issue is this, the Dolans, Jim Dolan is not interested in selling this company. He's not been interested in selling part of the teams. You kind of got an asset, you're kind of waiting for something to happen here.

And that something is the share price going higher? What's going to push it higher?

You know, I mean, they could sell a piece of one of the teams. There's a lot of— there's one of the hottest areas right now for investment, particularly for wealthy individuals. They're pitching these funds where they buy pieces of sports teams and they put it into like effectively like a mutual fund, but it's private. And basically people are buying— people are paying record prices for minor league franchises and things like that. Here you can buy two of the best franchises in professional sports. There's really only 1 or 2 public plays on professional sports right now. The other one is the Atlanta Braves. And this, and this company is trading at a big discount from what the value of the teams is. Something good may happen. You can't force the Dolans to do anything. You could have an activist surface and the Dolans may finally wake up and try to, I think, reward shareholders more.

2 stocks left. The first is Pepsi. And I wrote recently about Utz. I've pronounced it wrong on this podcast in the past. It's not Utz, I've learned it's Utz. And that is a salty snack brand. That's a salty snack insurgent, and Pepsi is the salty snack incumbent. So what do you like about Pepsi and its Frito-Lay franchise?

Well, you know, Pepsi is like some of the consumer stocks, has been somewhat out of favorites, down this year. The stock's in the high 160s right now. I think it's one of the best consumer franchises in the world right now. The valuation's come down, used to trade for a mid-20s multiple. Now, it's around 20 times forward earnings, about a 3-ish percent dividend yield. As you point out, they're the dominant player in snacks with Frito-Lay, which is Lay's brand. They have Doritos, they've got Cheetos. I mean, the Utz and the others are trying to kind of nip at their heels, but essentially in supermarkets right now, they dominate the snack aisle.

You can't even find— first of all, I'm a Cheez Doodles man. I am not a Cheetos man. I like Cheetos personally, but that's—

Okay.

Oh, look, personal preference, but I'm just saying you got a hard time finding a Cheez Doodle these days. You go into a convenience store, it's like Cheetos as far as the eye can see. Where are the Cheez Doodles? I see a Cheez Doodle, I'm like, oh, lucky day today, looky here. So I'm basing this only on my personal Cheez Doodle observations, but I take your point that the distribution is really incredible for Pepsi and Frito-Lay.

I mean, they do, as you know, direct store distribution. They actually send their guys with trucks to the supermarkets and they literally put this stuff on the aisles. And so, it's a very well-run company. Their beverage business is actually pretty good. It's arguably better than Coke's. It's less dependent on sugary soft drinks and sodas. They've got Gatorade and they've got some other brands. So, I think it's a good package. It's well run. They project high single-digit earnings growth, which I think stacks up pretty well. They try to have like mid-single-digit revenue growth. It's a pretty good model. They've generally been able to hit those goals, and they're pretty confident for 2024. One of the big risks that people have gotten worried about is the Ozempic effect, which refers to the diet drugs. There's some concern that people— if more people go on diet drugs, they'll be eating less snack foods. And I tend to doubt that. I think the number of people who are going to be on Ozempic will be a small percentage of the US population. And I think betting against American snacking is not a good one. I think— I mean, Americans are Americans are overweight. They love to eat. They love snacks. And this is like the biggest beneficiary.

You're not— you're looking at me when you're saying that, but you're not thinking about me, right? The, the analyst at Mizuho Securities feels the same way. It feels that the Ozempic risk is overblown in snacks. And he points out he's done surveys and he says that the people who do diet and who are going to give up snacks, they're overwhelmingly more likely to give up their sweet snacks than their salty snacks. He just put out a report saying salty is the place to be. He thinks salty is gonna take share from sweet. We'll see, but I guess that would benefit Pepsi.

Yeah, I mean, we'll see. I mean, might be bad for Twinkies, it may be good for, you know, Doritos and Cheetos and Lay's, so.

Last stock is U-Haul Holdings. What do you like about U-Haul?

Well, U-Haul is a, everybody knows the brand and the trucks. They dominate the business where if you wanna move yourself and rent a truck, There really is not much competition. It's one of the original network effect companies. It's impossible to compete with it. They have like 20,000+ locations. They got 200,000 or so trucks. The trucks are actually moving billboards for the company because you see them emblazoned with all the— effectively an advertisement for the company. It's actually a well-run company. They have a self-storage business. It's trading for about 15 times earnings, family run. It's very low profile, run like a private company, not much Wall Street coverage. But if you look at the sum of the parts, look at it various ways in terms of valuing it, it looks pretty attractive and it's kind of off the map. I think Berkshire Hathaway would love to buy this company if they possibly could. So I think if the controlling Schoen family, which owns about half of the company, ever wants to sell it, I think they can make a phone call to Omaha and get a pretty nice reception.

If you're into dividends, the highest 2 yields on the list are Chevron at 4.2% and Pepsi at 3%. The tickers on the ones we just mentioned: BioNTech, BNTX; Chevron, CVX; Hertz, HTZ; uh, Madison Square Garden, MSGS; Pepsi, PEP; and U-Haul, UHAL.B. Andrew, you did all the work here. Are you exhausted right now? Give this man a towel.

After all this talking, I need the towel off and maybe take a break. But, uh, it's great always talking to you. I love talking stocks, and, uh, you know, I think about this all the time, so Well, we sure appreciate it.

Come back, come back often. Thanks, Andrew. And thank you all for listening. This has been The Barons. We don't need to keep telling people what it is, right? That's just on radio. You got to tell people. Jackson Cantrell is our producer. Listen wherever you listen, Apple, Spotify, you can subscribe or do whatever. And you can rate us if you listen on Apple. Thanks. And we'll see you next week. Next year. Oh yeah, next year. Well, it depends on when you listen. Yeah, it could be this. You know what, the whole— we ruined the whole thing. We got to do it. We got to do it all over again. Sorry, Andrew Jackson just screwed it up.

We're doing a redo on this, is that right? No, no, no, just kidding.

All right guys, Andrew, perfect. Uh, gold, gold as always. And, uh, thanks, and, uh, I'll talk to you guys soon.

All right.

Data is everywhere, but is it ready for consumption? Morningstar developed the language of global investment data so you have the right ingredients to help you shine. Morningstar, where data speaks.