Michael RushReal Estate Broker, Keller Williams Realty DTC · Real Estate Broker at Keller Williams Realty DTC

🎄 After years of frozen activity, the market is finally showing signs of a thaw. 📊

24 Dec 2025 · 1 min

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In this market update, the speaker explains that after a prolonged period of inactivity caused by high interest rates, the housing market is beginning to thaw. As of mid‑December 2025, purchase mortgage applications have risen 10‑15% year‑over‑year, indicating a strong resurgence of buyer interest. However, closed sales have only increased modestly (2‑4%), suggesting a large amount of "shadow demand"—buyers who are pre‑approved and actively looking but are either unable to find suitable homes or are waiting for rates to dip further. Refinance activity has surged as well, with applications up 30‑40% year‑over‑year, as homeowners who locked in 7.5% rates in 2023‑2024 seek to refinance into the current low‑6% rates. The overall tone is analytical and cautiously optimistic, highlighting both the renewed demand and the constraints that still limit transaction completions.

Chapters

After years of frozen activity due to high rates, the market is finally showing signs of a thaw. Here is the current state of the market and the outlook for 2026. We're seeing a notable surge in buyer interest. As of mid-December 2025, purchase mortgage applications are up roughly 10 to 15% compared to this time last year. The gap, interestingly, while applications have jumped, closed sales have only risen slightly. about 2 to 4%. This suggests a high level of shadow demand— buyers who are getting pre-approved and shopping but are struggling to find the right home, or they're waiting for a final dip in rates. Refinance applications have also spiked, up nearly 30 to 40% year over year, as homeowners who bought at 7.5% in 2023 or 2024 rush to lock in the current rates, which are in the low 6%.