In this March 2023 market update for the Greater Denver area, the speaker outlines recent macro‑economic pressures—personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core PCE rising 0.6% and mortgage rates climbing back to roughly 7%—and explains how they affect buyer affordability. He then presents the latest housing statistics: average single‑family home price down 2.3% YoY to $719,000, active listings up 68.1% YoY but down 19.3% MoM, new listings down 20.7% YoY but up 17.6% MoM, less than one month’s supply locally and under three months nationally, pending sales down 9.8% YoY but up 13.6% MoM, and list‑to‑close price ratios shifting slightly. The speaker interprets these numbers as a seasonal correction after the inflated 2022 market and anticipates a modestly lower‑rate environment in Q2‑Q3 2023 once new CPI data (especially the shelter component) are released. He offers tactical advice: buyers should act now to lock in rates, leverage contingencies, and seek concessions; sellers should focus on staging, professional photography, and pricing strategy to capitalize on renewed competition. The overall tone encourages listeners to ignore sensational news, rely on trusted real‑estate professionals, and consider referrals.
Chapters
What's up everybody? There's more panic in the marketplace surrounding inflation as personal consumption expenditures and core PCE rose by 0.6%. We also saw mortgage interest rates take another jump back to around 7%, creating fear for buyers about the market and hurting their affordability. We're seeing increasing competition despite these factors, but let's take a closer look at the fresh market stats that were just released, and we can dive deeper into those numbers so we know what to expect for Q2 of 2023. The average price of single-family homes went down by 2.3% year over year to $719,000, and I think for the following months we're going to continue to see this trend in lower year-over-year numbers and decreases in those average prices because it's going to be replacing those highly inflated 2022 numbers. Active listings were up 68.1% year over year, but they're down 19.3% when compared to January. New listings were down 20.7% year over year, but they are up 17.6% when compared to January. Now, it might seem from the news and things like that that we have high inventory, but that's just not the case. Here locally, we have less than 1 month's supply, and nationally we have 690,000 active homes about, which is less than 3 months' supply. Also, for new construction projections, they're projecting to be 1.9 million, but that's not taking into account the homes that take longer than 12 months to build and the ones that won't even be completed this year. Also, housing formations are on pace to hit 1.4 million this year. Pending sales and market demand are down 9.8% from last year, but they are up 13.6% when compared to January. Percent of close price to list price is down 5.8% from last year, but that's also up from January, up 0.7%. So that's just showing that sellers and realtors are pricing their homes better and more competitively. These increases are due to seasonality and also due to the mortgage rate rally that we had in January when rates came back down to 6%. Now they just came back up to 7%, but I think buyers got a taste of what that felt like to have the rates come down, and then they're just waiting for the next time that it happens. So I think we have another rough patch coming up here for the next couple months But definitely some good news coming as we enter into Q2 of 2023, especially after we get the April inflation readings from May 10th. I think those are going to be really important. And the reason being is that our updated numbers will be replacing high 2022 readings for consumer— core consumer price index, but more specifically shelter within that CPI reading. which accounts for 39% of those swings up and down. So I think that coupled together is— it just means that there's some light at the end of the tunnel and we're going to have a lower rate environment in Q2 and moving into some of Q3 of this year. So now with this information, how do you win as a buyer, as a seller? My advice as a buyer, I would buy right now. The opportunity is now. You're going to be able to have your inspection, your appraisals, your other contingencies. You're going to be able to get a good price on the house and you're going able to possibly get some other unique things as well through rate buydowns, closing costs, maybe some other creative things. As a seller, I think if you— we are having increased competition right now, so if you stage your home, if you have beautiful photography, if your selling strategy is, is well formatted and on point, I think you're going to do good with your realtor. But as we enter into Q2 and as we enter into that lower rate environment, I think it's going to be an even better time to sell. into that spring and summer selling season. But we still have low inventory on the grand scheme of things, so it's not a bubble. People are going to be buying and selling real estate no matter what. So unplug from the news, um, have a good real estate guide and real estate professional that you trust and that does research on these things. And as always, if you have anybody that could benefit from my services, any referrals, I will take great care of them. Um, hope you all have a great day and a great rest of your week. Okay.
