Tariffs are pushing up prices while the economy stays weak, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. March's softer inflation data may not reflect the real impact of recent trade policy shifts. If a recession hits, the Fed could cut rates sooner than expected.
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The tariff war is fully underway and the repercussions are being felt across the world, not just in America. We saw lower inflation readings than we've seen in years for March and the market didn't even bat an eye. Goldman Sachs states that today's softer than expected CPI release feels backward looking given the large changes to trade policy seen in recent days. Going forward, the Fed is likely to face a difficult trade-off as tariff-driven price increases start to feed through to the inflation data and activity remains soft. We expect the Fed's initial reaction to be cautious, but the risks remain that a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the economy could result in a resumption to the Fed's easing cycle. So this is a likely outcome. The market slows down, many say that we're already in a recession, and this puts pressure on the Fed to cut rates sooner.