Muhammad Umar discusses RAND research showing Claude can estimate whether its answers are correct before generating them. This self-reflective confidence reduces wasted retries, saving tokens and energy compared to systems that just guess and try again.
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So second news is how AI models are showing self confidence. What's happening? Basically the calibration researchers at Rand Corporation reports that Claude models can increasingly estimate whether their answers are correct or accurate before executing code. And this capability is being described as self reflective confidence as well. So the main question here is how does that different from hallucination and why should people care about this?
It's very interesting. So, so basically this, where do you get these terms self confidence and all that anyways? So basically what Claude said, Rank Corporation shows that like thought can really predict the outcome before actually giving the result. Right? It exactly. It's calculating the probabilistic outcome before it executes the outcome. That is very powerful because it means a lot less brute force retries and when you talk about lot less brute force retries it means a lot less token usage and when it means a lot less token usage means a lot less energy.