In this solo vlog, Sensei Elliott (Niko Laamanen) provides a technical market update on Bitcoin, emphasizing that the short‑term bottom for January appears to have been reached around January 13th. He notes that his original 1:1 target of 34,055 was missed (price hit 34,079) and that the price subsequently fell to 34,050, a slight deviation from his forecast. While acknowledging the possibility of another leg down, he expresses low confidence that a further low will occur. Elliott maintains a very small long hedge in BitMEX March futures, with a stop‑loss set in the futures contract (not on perpetuals) and explains that he will not add to this position if the price dips further. His primary plan is to transition to a short position once the price stabilises, targeting a resistance zone around $4,525. He anticipates a significant move around January 31st that could form a large bear flag, potentially driving Bitcoin down to the $1,650–$2,050 range. To capture that deep move, he intends to ladder a new long position with very low leverage, stressing the importance of avoiding liquidation and accounting for slippage. Elliott comments on low trading volume, the need for green higher‑volume candles to sustain a bullish breakout, and the unlikely scenario of breaking above a $3,500‑$3,600 resistance line. Throughout, he repeats a disclaimer that he is not a financial advisor, urges viewers to do their own research, and frames the video as educational rather than a trading recommendation.
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TranscriptAuto-generated · 12 min
Good evening and welcome to Trading Academy in Consensus. I have my own channel where I also make, make, make my videos, but also here in this Consensus Academy. You definitely should subscribe yourself to this channel. There's good quality content also in English from time to time, and I also will be posting my TEAs in here from time to time. So that's that. I'm not a financial advisor, as I have said multiple times, so do your own research. And if you want to trade, learn it first. So as I have been repeating in my other videos before, there's not much, not much Again, that has changed. But let's take a quickie where where we are at the moment. Still, if you haven't watched the previous ones, so you can now catch up where I stand. So, in my opinion, we have now. Finally reached the short-term bottom for the— at least for January. But a good, good important thing to notice is that I also anticipated that we made the short-term bottom here at 13th January, where I, I was I was sad that we didn't hit that 34,055, which was my 1-to-1 target from there, there, and there. And we hit only 34,079, but I was, uh, I was quite sure we had reached the bottom then. And Even though I was, uh, of course cautious about us going one more leg down. But to be honest, if you would have asked me the probability for us to make a new low, I would have said that probably not. And the next point was here when we hit the 34,050, where I also said which was about $20 lower than the 13th day low, that okay, now we hit $5 difference from my original target from December. So now we have reached the short-term bottom. But also I was cautious there that we might take One more leg down, as we did. But if you would have asked me two days ago, will we make a new low today? I would have said probably not. But we made it anyway. Now we made it, and now our possible forming bull flag looks more in sync. with the upper line when we reach this bottom. I don't like this bottom because it's, uh, it's not much lower, but it's still $50 lower, which is 1.5% approximately from the original target. And that's why I don't, I don't like it. And if we will make a leg down, then, then it starts to worry me whether we will make more legs down. But currently I don't think we will, as I didn't think we will 2 days ago. Also, I'm still barely in long position, which was very small and is a very small position still, and I will not add on to that position if that price will make it one more low. It doesn't have to make it, to be honest, very— it only has to make a few dollars dip to make a new lower low, and then I'll get stopped. I will not move my stop loss, which is, by the way, in March futures in BitMEX, as I've stated. Stated before, it's not on perpetual contracts. It's in March futures. Futures. I mean scaled in there, and there was a killer killer week in there, which which almost stopped me out. But if it makes one more week like that, then I'm stopped. But like I said, I don't care if my hedge long will be stopped. I mean. No hurry. My main goal is to get into short position from this level, and currently that target as a sniper target is not valid anymore. Now we have to do a new one, and we do it similarly to what I've done in the past weeks. As a one-to-one, and again, why as a one-to-one? Because this area for four thousand five hundred, like I said in the previous video, is the resistance zone where I don't think we will breach through that. Not necessarily this whole year. It's very possible that even next year we won't reach that, but. Let's be optimistic for your, for you hodlers who want the Bitcoin price to go to million dollars. Yes, okay, so that's the target, $4,525 currently. If we make a new low, like I said, I start to feel suspicious about us going higher. And if I get stopped, like I said in the last video, this is the area where I'll try to get new longs with a bigger position. And if not, if not, we will go there and I will enter to short position. Uh, Basically, that's the only thing I have to say. No, wait, one one more thing I can say. As I've said this also before, but I will anticipate this movement to happen in in thirty first January, which will then start. The dump after it. And, uh, this would also form a very— if we— if the schedule and the price is nearly correct, it will form this very large bear flag here, from down— from up there to down there. And where will this green fifth wave go? And I anticipate it to drop into this area here, which is 1650 to 2050. So it's like I've said before, it's very percentually very large area. But I will get into long position and ladder myself into it with very low leverage, so I don't, I don't get wasted if bad things happen. Because if you trade on exchanges where you have a risk to get liquidated, you always have to avoid getting liquidated because liquidation costs you more than even if you manage to stop yourself out even by $1. But you shouldn't put your stop losses $1 from the liquidation because of the slippage that might occur. God, maybe, maybe if I talk, make these videos more, I learn how to pronounce better, and that's wishful thinking. So that's how I currently see it, and it looks pretty good. And the volume is not very high. There's basically, on the volume side, nothing indicates yet that we are going higher. If we get a nice green higher volume candle tomorrow, then it's— then I'm more hopeful. And also I'm more hopeful if for some reason, which I doubt, we would manage to close above this. I'll take that off. Above this purple line, 3,500 approximately 90. If we manage to close above it, but also I think that's wishful thinking. It would be too easy, easy for us to go there. And also it would be nice to form for the next two days two green candles here to make a nice solid daily capper here to give us a nice resistance point. But like I said, it's wishful thinking for this to be that easy. So I'm anticipating we have at least 2 days of pretty much sideways going with like this before we break out, if we will break out. And Otherwise, it's just too easy. Okay, so it's time to, time to put an end to this crappy video. And actually, I'm probably going to sleep soon, so don't trade, it's dangerous. It's a high-risk, high-risk thing, and you will probably end up losing all your money. So you just have to look at these videos as an educational— from an educational point of view. Okay, that's all I have to say. Good night.
