Podcast Predictions For 2019 - The Podcast Report Episode #151

It's my podcasting predictions for 2019 and how they actually affect your podcasting bottom line. It's the podcast report episode 151 show notes, links, conversation and more@thepodcastreport.com 151 one of the things I hate about prediction shows and people who make predictions is that some people seem like they can get away with anything. I've made predictions in the past about podcasting and I have not gotten it 100% right, but I've gotten pretty close at times. We actually examined that on the previous episode and this season, the podcast report. I'm doing a Facebook Live every week and then I'm doing a traditional podcast every week. And in the Facebook Live this week, we took a look at my 2017 and my 2018 predictions. If you want to go back to the previous episode, if you haven't listened to that, you can. But yeah, don't. Don't take predictions too seriously unless the person predicting actually has some experience in making it right. I think that's obvious, but I want to say it. And again, if you didn't listen that past episode, go ahead and do that now. First big prediction for 2019 is simply that the podcast industry sees an exponentially bigger impact from Pandora than from Google. Google made all these claims, Google made all these ideas. Google made a lot of people happy, made a lot of people excited. The industry has become in love with what Google is doing, and the fact of the matter is it's not doing that much. And I think Pandora impact's gonna become exponentially bigger than Google very quickly. Now, I chatted about Pandora in the last episode, so I don't want to go too deep into that. Long and short of that is go to where your audience is. Pandora listeners are people who go to their devices to get audio from the Internet. These are people who already have the religion. If you've listened to past episodes, the podcast report, you know that that's where you get your audience, the people who already have the religion. That's what Pandora is. But again, Pandora is people who are looking for their phones to do something else than make phone calls. Pandora is people who are looking for their phones to give them audio. This is huge. And it could be Pandora on an Android device, it could be Pandora on an iPhone device, it could be Pandora. I don't know if they're on the other platforms. I'm going to assume that they are, but I really don't know. And really, all seven Microsoft phones don't matter. But Pandora is people who are looking for audio from their phone. That's huge. Now Spotify is doing the same thing, but Spotify not as big as Pandora here in the us not the same demographic as in the us And Spotify definitely has a stronger association with Music Stick. We're going to hit Pandora versus Spotify in a later episode, but again, really important now. One of the episodes with Pandora that we need to discuss. One of the issues of Pandora that you need to think about in your strategy is do remember that Pandora is only usa. Every time I mention Pandora in some sort of online forum, Facebook, that kind of thing, everybody goes, ah, they won't accept me. They won't accept me. And the fact of the matter is they're from another country and Pandora doesn't have that. As of right now, as of the time of this recording, Pandora's capacity to go international with this bank of free content that they, you know, do either ads on or charge people to access. It would not be unwise for them to go out to foreign areas, you know, let's not call it that, areas outside of the usa, North America. It would make a tremendous amount sense there. My Spotify numbers are going down and they really weren't much in the first place. And my Pandora numbers are really high now. Part of that is last week we promoted Pandora and we did these things. But the fact of the matter is Pandora is my number two right now, which is an interesting idea. And back and forth between number two, number three. But, you know, guys like Stitcher, guys like Iheart, guys like, you know, Spotify, Pandora's seeing it. I think it's gonna be interesting. I think their impact at the very least is going to be more expensive. It's going to be not more. Is going to be exponentially bigger than goog. The bottom line where this is important for your business is this. The bottom line is that podcasting is a distribution game, not a platform issue. Think about who is going to get your content to your audience. Podcasting is a distribution game, not a platform issue. Pandora is a distribution game, not a platform issue. These two go together, make use of it, pay attention to it, act on it. My Next prediction for 2019 is major changes at Apple Podcasts. And there's been rumblings of this. I've heard of this and there's actually been some to point towards this. A couple years ago, Apple introduced the whole Apple tags thing. My prediction for last year was that people outside of Apple wouldn't necessarily grab hold of them. The fact of the matter is Apple hasn't necessarily even grabbed hold of them. But Apple's been trying to make some change. Apple's been doing some things for the industry that are a little bit different. I chatted more about that last week, but I have a theory about Apple, about itunes that I haven't shared yet. And I want to do that on this episode. And you can call it a tinfoil hat moment, you can call it a, you know, whatever you want conspiracy theory, but I believe that Apple is purposefully and strategically moving into a service company. I'll say that again. I believe that Apple is purposely and strategically moving into a service company. Let's take a look at things. The iPhone. I have bought a new iPhone every year. Not necessarily because I needed to, but first of all, I got a family of four. So, you know, my wife gets the old phone, and then my eldest gets her phone, and then my youngest gets her phone. And by the time the four years are up, the phones are pretty well beaten, and we go through that process again. So I'm able to get a new phone every year. And I love the gadgets, and I'm definitely what one would call a nerd in this area. So I tend to grab the most expensive version of the phone. And I've done that because my excuse, for lack of a better term, has been, well, I need the good camera. I need the good camera. Well, one of the things that's interesting is these new phones. And the new phones are definitely over a thousand bucks, but the xr, the one, the cheap phone, which, you know, around Christmas and thanksgiving was really going after rebates and that kind of stuff for three, 400 bucks. I mean, it's a cheap phone, has the same camera as the expensive phones, has the same chip as the expensive phones, has the same speed as the expensive phones. Why would apple give the same camera as the expensive phones, the same chip, the same speed? Why would they do that? Well, maybe the money isn't in the phone. Maybe the money isn't in the chip. Maybe the money is in the services that can do that. Iphoto of a better picture. Storage online is going to make more sense if I take a better picture. Just a thought. That by itself doesn't say that Apple's changing some things, but now let's take a look at iTunes, iTunes on the desktop. And I've chatted about this a little bit previously, but let's go more in depth. Itunes on the desktop now is a very different experience than itunes on the phone. And of course, what's funny is itunes on the phone actually doesn't include podcast. Itunes on the phone is a separate podcast app. But if you look at the podcast apple on the phone, on the tablet, you know, on the iPad tablet and on the Apple tv, it's a very different story than itunes on the desktop. Almost as if podcasting is getting some new focus and getting some new attention. And I think you want to think that through. And why would they separate out podcasting if they didn't have plans for it? And why would the desktop not get it other than they're realizing that their future are these devices that bring these services? And we'll check about this in a second. I'll probably call it by the wrong name and the little device on my table will begin to speak. But itunes not the same as it used to be. The desktop version is almost a graveyard. Whereas the device version doesn't distinguish between audio podcast and video podcast anymore. We chat about that in the last episode. I think that's it. It's not just iPhone and itunes, it's iPads. If you look at it very carefully, with the way money works and the way finance works, you know, the new iPad was basically 250 bucks pretty much the entire season for, you know, this holiday season. Putting it about the same price as the Alexa. Why Apple? I'm sorry, Oops. She almost spoke. Putting the same price as the Kindle Fire. Why would Apple do that? Why would Apple, who's always distinguished themselves on the more expensive product, why would they be the same price as the cheaper guy? Well, because Amazon has realized that they can use Alexa to sell product. They can use Alexa to get people to take action on things that make them more money. And they've realized that maybe the Alexa is a means whereby which to make the device that delivers it a loss leader. Cheap tablets, cheap speakers. Interesting. So the iPhone isn't doing what it's always done. You could blame that on better services. The itunes certainly isn't doing what it's done. You could blame that on better services. The Apple music, which we'll chat about in a section turning off podcasts. Why would they do this? The focus on health Apple is very, very, very much spoken to the fact that they really want to focus on health. This year the Watch 4 is fantastic. That one is not cheap by any sense of the imagination. But again, those services of connecting it to a phone so that if someone falls and they can't get up, Apple can essentially save lives. Definitely focus on health. Part of health is a focus on services. I think one of the biggest ones really, is that Apple music is now available on the Alexa. Now, I've been an Apple music user for quite some time and I've been a big fan of it. And I could have gone to Spotify. And the fact of the matter was we just had our playlist, the family was sort of embedded in it. But I was looking at buying an expensive home pod or buying a couple of expensive homepods because it was the way I could get a smart speaker that played my music. Well, all of a sudden Apple stopped saying I can only get Music on this $550 device and says I can now get Apple music on these $30 devices sold by what many would call their competitor. Why would Apple do that? Except that maybe selling Apple music music is a better profit margin than selling an expensive speaker. All of these speak to selling services is potentially more profitable than selling devices. I don't know. Two different iTunes. I don't know. Let's talk about why they do this. Number one, Apple inherited the name. And I know there's been this long running decade plus debate if podcast is a good name or not. But their podcast, this is the podcast report. And people who think pods think ipods, which Apple was once associated with. Now most people think of iPhones. I don't even know if some kids today even know or care what an ipod is. But the fact of the matter is they inherited the name. And this massive industry that's big enough for a guy like me to try to do a weekly, multiple weekly, multiple times per week show about the fact that they inherited that name, that's a windfall that you don't want to toss away. A lot of people associate podcasting with them. I've told the joke many times about my mom not believing that she or believing that she can't listen to my stuff because she doesn't have an Apple. A lot of people associate podcasting with Apple. You look at the Apple tv, you look at the iPhone, that's a content delivery mechanism. And music, they're kind of, you know, they're doing an interesting place and this move to Alexa makes it interesting. But a lot of people doing podcasts on the Apple tv, which is why I think the video podcasting thing is going to be huge. A lot of people doing podcasts on the iPhone, which is why people want to grab that it's interesting stuff on the services thing. Could Apple one day come up with a phone company? There have been chats about that. I don't know. Interesting. It could be the thing that they're working on right now. It could be. And again, conspiracy theory, propeller head. But I still think we're going to see major changes at Apple in the podcast arena. This could be a skunk works thing. And what's interesting is the ipod was. I'm reading an interesting book right now. I actually just finished it called Valley of Genius, and it is, for lack of a better term, a narrative history of Silicon Valley. And it's funny, I've read many, many, many stories of where the ipod came from and what was happening. And this one gave a different story a story of it being a skunk works. And that's how it got through so quickly. The complaint, the understanding, the realization is that some, in some ways, and in some times, Apple's gotten too big for itself, can't move as. Can't be as lean as it once was. And maybe podcasting is a spinoff, becomes a skunk works, I don't know. But I believe that we're going to see major changes at Apple podcast. I believe we're going to see them try to grab more of it than they already have. Fact of the matter is they got 80% of it anyway. But I think you're going to see them grab more. At least try to keep on to their 80%. And the bottom line to that is simple. Never forget who owns the playground. I'll say that again. Never forget who owns the playground. Make sure your podcast works on Apple, because despite all these prognosticating geek types who love to talk about how Apple's going down with people like Pandora and people like Google and people these other places, I think the number is going to stay. I think it's going to get bigger. I think Apple's going to fight for it. And you want to make sure that your stuff is optimized for Apple because you never want to forget who owns the playground. My final theory for podcasting in 2019 is that Instagram is going to become a primary podcaster marketing vehicle. Instagram in 2019 is going to become a primary podcast marketing vehicle. What does that mean? Well, if you're not on Instagram, get on Instagram. Even if you don't want to tell anybody your account or anything. Follow a couple people, see what they do, see stories, that kind of thing. Take a look at podcasters. I'm starting to play in this slightly and I would recommend you follow me. I'm@instagram.com get this, Paul Calligan. Nice and boring. I definitely recommend that you follow me because we're trying Some things I've been working to bump my audience up and bring my audience up and we'll be in an interesting place. But what happens when you get 10,000 followers is Instagram gives you something called the ability called swipe up. And basically on your posting, people can swipe up to get more information. So a lot of people will do that to swipe up to read more for my blog or you'll see people who are advertising on Instagram swipe up to order. But podcasters can use swipe up to listen to my episode. And this is not a gimmick because if you think about it intelligently, a podcaster or a podcast consumer, you know, if they're on a mobile device, which all Instagram users are, there's a possibility to do the web, Instagram on the web, but it's just not that good. Most of your people, a huge, you know, 99 plus percent at least the active real ones, are going to be on a mobile device. And if they see you and you've got something of interest to them and all they have to do is swipe up to listen to it, this is really, really, really powerful. This is really, really viable. The swipe up is perfect. We've got several clients, you know, who have the 10,000 plus space. We're seeing some really interesting results from it. We've got access to the numbers. The numbers are really, really interesting. If you don't have access to, you know, 10,000 followers, you can actually play Spotify now gives you the ability, if your show's on Spotify and it should be, to share your Spotify episodes as a Instagram story. And if you share your podcast as an Instagram story, then at least you can see that and click and that kind of thing. And it's, it's, it's absolutely fascinating. So I think Instagram's gonna be huge. Getting a decent following. Not that hard. If you want to buy the following, you can pay for ads. Not that hard. I'm at like, I think 2,600 with just a little bit of effort. Not that hard. Again, if you want to see how I'm doing it, follow me to Instagram. PaulColligan. Hopefully we'll be making some announcements a little bit later during the year. My goal actually is April, but we'll see what happens. But I think they're gonna become a primary podcaster marketing vehicle because there are people on devices. Remember that thing about distribution game, not a platform issue. People on phones are the great place to distribute to. There are people on phones who are interested in you, who can swipe up to get more to get the content. The bottom line to this whole idea simply is that you want to market where your market is. I'm not trying to sound like Forrest Gump there, and I guess I probably just dated myself in terms of that reference. But the fact of the matter is you want to market where your market is. Your market are people who are interested in what it is that you have to say on a portable device. Instagram is people who are looking at you and what it is that you have to say on a portable device. So the swipe up feature makes it real. The numbers on the younger demographic is huge. Facebook's getting too noisy. The fallout from Facebook, I mean, you don't need to be. Yeah, it's obvious what's happening over at Facebook. Instagram continues to grow. It's not as corny or as cheesy as some of the other options. I think it's become a primary podcast marketing vehicle. That will be a bit hard to judge as I try to look at how we did in 20. Oh my God, 2020 next year. Wasn't that a sci fi book? Yeah, crazy stuff. But bottom line, market where your market is. So again, the three podcasting is a distribution game, not a platform issue. I think Pandora is going to become exponentially bigger than Google in this space. We're going to see some major changes at Apple podcasts, which is going to make them more important, which is going to cause me to remind you to never forget who owns that playground. And then of course, if Instagram gets bigger and bigger and more and more important, I think it's going to. You want to market where your market is. So I'd love to hear from you. We are doing the podcast report differently this season. That's what we do. We do them differently all seasons long. But you can reach out the podcastreport.com Facebook, the podcastreport.com Twitter, the podcastreport Instagram. That'll take you to all those social places. I would love to hear what you think. If you want to go to the podcastreport.com 151-that-is the. The page where we'll have this episode with the player and all that stuff. We take blog comments, but I don't know, not a lot of people, let's face it, that's the whole power of podcasting. Not a lot of people are going to be going there to make comments. I think the best chance to have others and to engage in this whole idea and is on social, you can go to all the links and all those links will help you subscribe as well. I don't care how you subscribe to the show. You can subscribe to it on Google, you can subscribe to it on Pandora. We chat about that last week. You can do you know, I don't care. The podcastreport.com iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn, iHeartRadio. You know they're all there. Pick follow up so that you get the latest episode when it is released again. I want to say one more time before we close off this season, we're doing something a little bit interesting. On Monday. I'm doing Facebook Lives that we repurpose as a podcast episode. The interest in that's been fun and the ability to come on and interact with me is definitely there. We do that. And then on Thursday we release the more quote unquote official episode that would be what this one is. It's going to be interesting to see engagement downloads, access, that type of thing. It'll be fun to watch that. And of course, we will report some of that on following episodes. The next episode, which will come out in a week from now, we're going to actually talk about podcast strategies for Spotify. Despite the fact that I'm not necessarily seeing numbers there, there's some interesting things to look at when it comes to Spotify and we will be exploring that next week. Thank you so much. Chat with you soon. Bye.