Precursor Ventures argues that billion-dollar exits barely move the needle for large venture funds. To meaningfully return capital, firms need stakes in 30 to 40 outcomes worth tens of billions, not just a few unicorns. Ownership is zero-sum: not every big fund can own 20% of every major exit.
"30 to 40 billion dollars"
"20%"
The only way to do that, I believe, is through really large outcomes. Two things have to be true. There have to be 30 to 40 billion dollars outcomes, and your specific venture firm needs to be in those. And my hunch is that it's zero sum. Since there's only 100% to buy. It is impossible that every large venture firm can own 20% of every meaningful exit. Interesting thing will be of those really large firms, who does the best job of capturing meaningful ownership in the companies that ultimately matter? And I think if you're a really big venture fund, that's the only game that matters to you, because it's the only that moves. And as the post does, the median exit doesn't do anything for a big venture fund. It simply isn't big enough. Even if they own 200% of that company, it wouldn't matter.
