Konstantin Buehler of Sequoia notes that major tech trends peak 5-6 years after they start, long before hype hits. Precursor Ventures says the next big wave after AI has already begun but only insiders know about it. Investors struggle to fund unfashionable categories when AI dominates every pitch meeting.
LinkedIn post from Konstantin Buehler over at Sequoia. Top companies are almost never born from the hype of their founding year. New trends also appear to announce themselves 5 to 6 years before they peak.
Whatever is coming after AI, which by the way, I don't think is robotics, whatever it is, started happening a couple years ago and a handful of people probably know it and the rest of us don't yet. But it's really hard to go to LPs and like, hey, I'm spending a bunch of my time in a category that no one else is talking about, that no one else thinks is valuable. And I just think it's so much easier to say, I'm working on the thing that everybody else is working on. To go to a cocktail party today and talk about your inference or harness or model companies is a lot easier than to go talk about some consumer company that you're investing in that nobody cares about.
