In this February 2025 market update, Naples real‑estate agent Renee Hahn explains that the local market has shifted to favor buyers and challenge sellers. She outlines a 36% year‑over‑year increase in overall inventory (30% rise in single‑family homes, 40.9% rise in condos) while pending sales have fallen 28% and closed sales are down 10%, indicating a looming further decline. Days on market have risen 23%, and median closed prices have risen 4% due to ultra‑luxury sales, but single‑family prices fell 5.3% month‑over‑month and area‑code specific median prices (34104, 34105, 34116) dropped about 4%. An appraiser, Carolyn Carroll, warns that homes bought in 2022 are losing value, especially in oversupplied spec‑home markets like Old Naples, Vanderbilt, and Lake Park. Hahn advises sellers to price aggressively and be prepared for longer market times, while buyers can leverage abundant inventory, negotiation room, improving insurance options, and recent condo reserve studies. She concludes that Naples is performing better than neighboring Florida markets and provides her contact information for further assistance.
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Hello, this is Renee Han, your Naples real estate expert, bringing you the monthly Naples real estate market update. All right, you know with me you're gonna get the straight story. That's just how it is. That's how I am, um, even when it hurts your feelings sometimes. So we're going to dive right in. What I would say is this, um, the market right now is going to feel really good to buyers and it's not going to feel very good to sellers. There are some buyers— some markets rather— where that is the complete opposite. We enjoyed that when we got into the early COVID years where our sellers were singing from the rooftops and hallelujah while the buyers were crying. Um, we flipped the roles. What I would start this discussion with is saying that anything that's not in the equilibrium range is always uncomfortable, even to a certain extent if you're on the favorable side of that, because it's not an environment where both parties are ever going to feel good. Whereas in more of a balanced market, both parties can walk away and feel good about it. That's not the case here. So I want to say, be kind to your agents right now. I hear a lot of griping where I think You know, certainly an agent has a lot to do with how a listing performs, but there are some markets where even the best agents can't overcome the economic and real estate headwinds that might be in place. And I tell people, no amount of sophisticated, effective, high quantity of marketing can overcome a house that's not priced right. And the challenge we've got in this marketplace is the market is fluid, it's changing. So how do we price homes? We look at what's sold, we look at what, what other buyers have paid for homes that have been purchased recently. The problem is when we go back and look at it when you're in a declining market, you're already starting arguably from a price point that's too high. So I tell a lot of my sellers, look, we can kind of look at what the competition is right now, not even those that have sold, but who else is priced. But the reality is, if you look at how long things are sitting on the market, you could come on the market and on day 2, all of your neighbors could drop their prices. Because if you see the amount of price drops going on, that's what's happening. And so you've got to be really ready to face into the pricing, um, challenges that are going on right now. I, what I see happening is people into intellectually get that prices have come down. What they're not ready to accept is how much they've come down. So people are kind of inching their way down. They're like, okay, well, we'll go a little bit less than the house that sold last year. And then what happens is it doesn't sell, it doesn't sell, doesn't sell. You've missed your market opportunity because you've sat. There's very few buyers in the market right now, candidly. And what I would tell you is those buyers that are in the market are incredibly picky. Why? Because they can be. They can choose anything they want on the market right now. There's a fair number to choose from. And so things that maybe in the past wouldn't have bothered them, little nitpicky stuff that sellers are getting bent out of place on, are— the reality is they can pick at those things because they don't have to compromise on much. So anyways, I'm diverging a little too much. Let me hit the stats first and then I'll come back to the commentary. So overall inventory, if you look at, uh, we're comparing February to February because obviously we're at the month end of March and we always do a 1-month look back to make sure that all the data is up to date, that every agent's had the opportunity and time to close their listings out when there have been homes closings and sales. Um, so this is February inventory from February 2025 compared to 1 year prior was up 36%. Hold on to that number, please. Pending sales was down 28%. So what does that mean? That's a gap of— what did I say? 64%. The inventory is coming on 36% higher, pending sales are down 28% higher. That's a big gap. What does that mean? It means there aren't as many buyers and there's a heck of a lot more properties to choose from. You've got to be thinking about what that means. So holding on to old prices is just creating headaches for yourself. I'm telling you, I'm telling you, I'm telling you, it is really tough to swallow the pill of just how much, but the homes that are selling are either extraordinarily special or they are priced extraordinarily well. And unfortunately, everything in the middle is sitting. Uh, median close price, uh, did go up 4%, but what I will tell you, we have our ultra luxury market doing really, really well right now. So that mix of what's selling and what's listed is a little skewed. So what I would take away from that, um, the ones that are pricing and the ones that are selling are of a higher price in some cases, which is changing the mix. Um, so again, if you look at how long things are selling and how many price decreases there have been, you'll feel a little bit different. The number of new listings was virtually flat. So what does that mean? Well, if inventory's up 36% and new listings are flat, what does that mean? It means there's a lot that's not selling. That's how that number compounds, right? New things come on the market at the same pace they always have, but you've got extra inventory sitting there and it just compounds and grows bigger and bigger. Overall closed sales were down 10%. That's a delayed figure. So why do I say that pending sales are down 28% but closed sales are down 10%? What does that mean? Overall closed sales next month and the following month are going to be at a bigger drop than what they were now. So closed sales down 10%, but the leading indicator pending sales are down 28%. Days on market went up by 23%. So it is a harsh reality. If you don't need to sell your home, now might not be the time to do it. But if you're going to sell your home, you're really going to have to face into what you might need to sell it for. So I want to make sure I don't miss any other statistics that I wanted to pull in. I will tell you that, uh, there were actual price decreases in, in the closed prices for some area codes—34104, 34105, 34116, as an example. They actually were down 4%. Um, what else was I going to tell you? Uh, let's see here. Oh, I thought this was an interesting quote. So Carolyn Carroll is an appraiser in the area. They do a lot of work with Naples Area Board of Realtors. They do not do mortgage appraisals. They do more value appraisals, if you will. And Carol— Cindy Carroll made a statement that was quoted in the Naples Area Board of Realtors report that they released to agents. It says, we are starting to see values declining for homes that were purchased in 2022, especially in markets that are saturated with homes for sale. Selling a home can be especially challenging when the spec home market has produced an oversupply of homes for sale in many popular areas. And she specifically calls out Old Naples, Vanderbilt, and Lake Park. Those areas were booming, and because they were booming, builders were coming in building spec homes, and now those spec homes along with resales are sitting. Um, and so you're seeing some price declines. So what— again, people, I still see people trying to sell things for at or more than they bought them. And depending on when you bought it, this is right here telling you if you bought something in 2022 where you built something in '22, there is a high likelihood that it is valued at less now in 2025. I know, folks, you aren't ready to hear that. You've been used to seeing appreciation in the positive direction, and we got really, really greedy when it was going up really fast. In fact, I never heard a seller complain Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a minute here. There is no way my house is valued at that much. It can't go up that much. But I'm hearing that argument on the other side of, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, there's no way my value has gone down that much. And it is, you know, these listing appointments are tougher and tougher. You've got to face into that if you want to sell it. Let me see if there was anything else that was worth mentioning. Meaning closed price, if you look at single-family homes month over month, did decline 5.3% January over February. So, so just to keep in mind, and single-family home inventory January— excuse me, February over February. I said January, February, didn't I? So single-family home prices came down 5.3% year over year, and then if you look at single-family inventory, it was up 30%. Condominium inventory, by the way, up 40.9% year over year. Yeah, condos are, are a little bit tough right now. So again, I've gone on long enough. I wanted to keep this short and sweet. Here's my advice to you. I have a lot of buyers that I work with, and their biggest worry right now is making an offer on something when the market is going down. Kind of like people don't want to buy at the top of the market, people are worried about buying and in 3 months later their value in just 3 months have gone down. So a lot of buyers are sitting on the sidelines right now. So if you're a buyer, what I would say is this: right now you have a lot to pick from. You've got room for negotiation on most houses, not all. There's some sellers that still don't get it, but on some houses you can negotiate. You've got insurance situation is getting a little bit better. The insurance companies, there's more competition coming into the market. I think assessment costs for things like condos, now that we're through the milestone studies, the, the special studies on the reserves, that's done. And most of those buildings have a good idea of what their financial vulnerability will look like. So it's a good time to start thinking about selling. If you wait for the perfect moment, just know that there's going to be competition. There are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines, and they will eventually come back into the market when they think the time is right. And if you're looking at the same things, you're all going to come into the market at the same time. So it's— buyers, it's not a bad time to buy. I get that you're nervous that you might get an even better deal next week, But at some point you've gotta decide what the right time is. 'Cause again, the better it looks, the more buyers there are gonna be for competing. If you're a seller, my biggest advice is whatever you think your home is valued at, be open to the fact that it's probably valued at something less because we are now for the first time can say that values have declined over what they were as you saw here in 2022 in many cases. So to think that you're going to get a price, anything close to what it was in '22 and in some cases even subsequent years after that, it's just not gonna happen. So if you aren't in a position to price right in the face of that, then it might not be the right time to list because burning days on market doesn't do you any good. And it only really erases on the days on market, the cumulative will stay there. And as somebody who comes in and sells houses after other agents haven't a fair amount. It is not easy. It is tough. There is headwind that you pick up that listing with that you had nothing to do with. Those days on market are not good for anyone because it all raises questions about what's wrong with your home, why didn't it sell. Um, so again, if you're serious about selling, you're probably going to have to shuffle up to prices that you're not comfortable with. And that's just the harsh reality. So with that, I will close with some good news. We are doing better than the markets in Sarasota and some other areas in Florida. So be thankful to that. I wish you a wonderful, wonderful week ahead. If I can ever be of assistance, again, Renee Hahn, your Naples real estate expert. I can always be reached at 239-287-2576 or find me on my website, yournaplesexpert.com. Thanks and have a wonderful day.
