Florida Returning

Good morning, this is Renee Han with Caine Premier Properties, and this is the first time I've used this software for my own broadcast, um, and not an interview. So don't forget to tune in later, I believe at 1 o'clock, when I'll be on with, um, the owner of Rejuvenations. So, um, but what I wanted to come on this morning— I've been, interestingly enough, after the 5 o'clock newscast yesterday with DeSantis coming on and talking about what Florida's plans were to start reopening businesses in line with Level 1. I've been getting a ton of calls, just people that are curious, some customers, some just asking my opinion because they know I'm in real estate, and I thought I'd just come on in and do a quick message on this topic. Now, my disclaimer: is that I by no means have a crystal ball. So when we're talking about it, and quite candidly, it's been harder when you're doing listing appointments and doing comparative market analysis right now because traditionally we use not just what's going on in the market, but we use real data from the last 6 to 12 months to give us an idea of what we think things will sell for. Well, we're in unprecedented times, and because of that, um, you know, things are changing by the minute, by the hour, by the week, and it's a really fluid environment. So again, I'm happy to share my thoughts here, because I do think about it. But my disclaimer is, I'm not a psychic, I'm not a crystal ball reader, and we'll learn this together. What I have been sharing with folks is, first of all, you know, I'm happy to see businesses being able to safely return back to work, because I know this COVID situation has been, you know, both a financial and emotional hardship on many people for a variety of reasons, health being an obvious one, but even beyond those that haven't been impacted directly because of their health, if they work for businesses or they own businesses, it's really affected it and so I'm happy in that regard to see us returning to being able to open the doors of some of the businesses. Now for those of you that watched the broadcast or read about it, I posted the actual order this morning on Facebook. You'll note it's a slow opening, which is probably as it should be. There are lots of different views on what should be open and shouldn't, and some people are kind of scratching their heads because in similar categories, one thing may be allowed to be open but not in another. So right now it looks like, you know, hospitals are being able to do a little bit broader, particularly when it comes to surgical procedures and stuff. Restaurants are going to be able to reopen with some considerations, you know, outside dining, an obvious one that's going to be allowed, but patronage inside will have to be in fewer numbers. So again, I think that is good. What that means is we as consumers and as people who live and travel to places like Naples and other places will start to get to be more comfortable venturing out, and so certainly when it comes to real estate, although there are some customers I have that have purchased things sight unseen during this, this time period. Most people want to get in a house and see it. So yes, there will be a level of comfort that will start and grow over time, which will impact the real estate market positively. What I want to share that I think is important is a couple of things on the positive side. When COVID hit, We in the Southwest Florida area were actually lower than usual on inventory, which is good because we didn't go into a slowdown with, you know, an abundance of inventory. So that's goodness. Now, I think when the market picks up, we'll see the numbers jump, not just with homes that may have been delayed in getting listed, but new listings as well. So that's good though. Low inventory going in was a good thing. What I want to make sure people know, and I, and I say this particularly to sellers, because look, we want— if we're in a position where we need to sell our homes, we want to look for goodness, and we're looking for signs that now is the right time. I've got several of mine that we're kind of sitting on for a while because my thought is this: yes, inventory was low, it's likely to go up as things start to come back together, but I think there's going to be a slow return to real estate. And there may be those that disagree with me, and they may be right, But my rationale is this: we're heading into what's typically in Naples the slower time of the year. Now that can vary by community, so there are still some communities that sell year-round, but there's also many communities that don't see a lot of activity in the summer. So low inventory, however, we're going into what would normally under normal circumstances be a slow time. Now you overlay COVID and I think it's going to be slow. I also think it's going to take a while for people to be comfortable unless purchasing a home is a true necessity or selling a home is a true necessity. Well, we'll focus on the buyers because sellers could have properties on the market all day long, but if you don't have buyers, it doesn't do the sellers any good. So let me focus on the buyer part. Those buyers may start to get comfortable that it's getting safer for them to be out looking for property, but I think there's two things that will still be at play that will cause this to be a slow return for the real estate market, in my humble opinion. One is that even though they're seeing signs of, from the leadership of the, the U.S. and the leadership of the state of Florida, that it is safe to return, um, it's not— the light didn't just go on. And so again, depending on your appetite for, we'll say, health risk, some people, even though the gates have opened a little, may continue to be reserved for a while. Again, necessity may change that. So that's one reason, even though things are slowly starting to open, it doesn't mean that everybody will be ready to return to regular activity right away. They may be apprehensive, they may be taking it slow, letting others go first, seeing how it goes, making sure the numbers don't jump back up, all of those things. That's one. The second thing that I think is at play is, look, all of us have been hit in our financial pocketbooks, whether it's through investment, whether it's through job, whether it's through income. So where we're at today, financially as individuals is not as strong as where we were when COVID hit. So that's another reason why I think it's going to be a delay. So if you are trying to make decisions about your finances, income versus expense, now may not be the ideal time to be taking on a big ticket item like homes. Again, there are still plenty of, of buyers that have a lot of liquidity that will want to buy. I'm just suggesting don't everyone think overnight that the real estate market is going to turn on a dime now we're starting to have signs of returning to normal here. I think there's still going to be a lag. Now, having said that, and being Debbie Downer there, I do want to tell you that I remain incredibly optimistic that as we head towards the end of the year, get closer to our higher season, give more time for people to fully assess the true impact that COVID had and the recovery plan that's in place and have some momentum, I believe we'll have some pent-up demand. So when people are more financially happy, that's not the right word. I'm, you know, when you hit 49, you get a little bit— your brain doesn't keep up. But when people are financially confident, that's the word I was looking for. When we start to feel like we are in a good place to make investments, whether it be in homes or other big-ticket items, and we start to feel that our health won't be at risk to go out and, and look for things, I believe we're going to have a strong comeback towards the end of the year. So again, the world according to Renee, which might be worth a rusty penny, I think I'm optimistic that things are starting to show signs of returning. I think that the real estate market will continue to be slow for a while. I think that as we get to the end of the year, I expect to have some pent-up demand show in some, um, you know, big, uh, upside in real estate. But I think it's going to be a slow slope to get there. So if you're trying to think about when the right time is to buy or sell, I always encourage you to talk with a, um, you know, an expert realtor so that you can assess for your price point, for your community for your condition of your property, the demand that they're seeing, when's the right time. It's not a blanket answer for everyone. I'm just looking— good morning, Mandy. Um, Bridget says the summer is going to be stronger than ever before, don't you think? I do think there's some pent-up demand, but I think it will all depend on as we start to see businesses reopen. I think, again, I think there's going to be a big part of the population that's going to go slow Not that everybody's not going to go run out and sit outside and dine, because I think that will happen, but that's very different than getting back to normal. And so I think there's going to be a slow uptick. I think a lot of it will depend, Bridget, on whether we see health in, you know, occurrences of coronavirus tick up with this opening. And if things go smoothly, I think consumer support and interest in purchasing will certainly be stronger in the summer. But I'm, I'm going slow. I think that I don't want to be overzealous and, and guiding any of my sellers to be too aggressive about it at this point because I think it's going to be a slow uptick. So I'd love to hear what you think, Bridget. Do you think it's going to be a strong summer? Mandy, what do you think? Again, I just wanted to come on because perhaps others had the same questions. I had an influx of calls last night about this topic, and then even first thing this morning, again, both from my, my own sellers and some buyers, but also from friends just wanting to catch up and pick my brain about that. So I hope this has been helpful. Again, this is not endorsed by my broker. This is not endorsed by anyone. This is just my humble opinion about what I see happening and what I expect to see as an outcome of that. I hope everybody has a great day. And again, a very intended plug, join me at 1 o'clock when I'll be coming on and talking to one of our local business leaders. My doing these daily connections is to help people get a jump start, to help people remember what businesses are out there and the great services they provide. So I hope you'll join me at 1 o'clock today. Thanks and have a fabulous, fabulous day despite the rain that we are looking out our windows seeing this morning. Thanks everyone.