In this July 2024 market update, Naples real‑estate specialist Renee Hahn reviews the most recent Board of Realtors data, highlighting a continued slowdown in closed sales, a sharp rise in inventory, and evolving buyer behavior. Compared with July 2023, total closed sales fell 2.6% (608 vs. 624) and pending sales dropped 15.7%. Year‑to‑date sales are down 16% versus the pre‑pandemic benchmark of 2019, and July sales are down 29% versus that same month in 2019. Inventory has surged 50.5% to 4,352 homes, representing roughly 6.5 months of supply—up from 2.9 months a year earlier—and is especially high in luxury segments. Days on market increased 45%, while the median closed price slipped only 0.8% to $590 K, and the closed‑to‑list ratio fell to 94.8%, indicating broader negotiations. Cash transactions, historically around 70% of deals, fell to 51.9% in July, signaling greater reliance on financing and heightened sensitivity to interest rates and insurance costs. Hahn advises sellers to price competitively, rely on data‑driven agents, and avoid emotional, over‑optimistic pricing expectations. She also notes macro factors that could swing the market—interest rates, inflation, election outcomes, and home‑ownership costs—and invites viewers to contact her for community‑specific analysis.
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Hello, this is Renee Han, your Naples real estate expert, bringing you the monthly Naples real estate market update. I say this every month, but keep in mind that the market reports are always a month in the past to ensure that all transactions have been closed out and accurately reported. This market report we're going to talk about is reporting on data from July of 2024. Closed sales in properties in Naples during June and July 2024 declined compared to the same months in 2023, according to the July 2024 market statistics that Naples Area Board of Realtors produces. For all of Collier County including Marco Island, overall closed sales during July decreased 2.6% to 608 closed sales versus 624 closed sales in July of the previous year. Furthermore, pending sales activity also reported for July went through a decline of 15.7%. Given these results and the sentiments around them, we should expect to see similar closed sales performance in the month of July when we back this time next year to talk about this. Look, the reality is that we've been in such an exaggerated decline that it was only a matter of time before we started to see pricing and purchases settle back down. We know we still have buyers that want to be here and want to purchase. I watch the market closely every day, and I'm seeing roughly 15 to 25 homes go pending each day about this time of year right now. So while the market has definitely quieted a bit more than our typical summer slowdown, it has not come to a standstill. Given the fluidity of the market in the last handful of years, we often look back to 2019 because candidly, 2019 was the last year when our housing market activity was normal, or as we call it, pre-pandemic. If we compare year-to-date 2024 market results to 2019, we also see a decline though. So sales are down 16% for July. We're down about 29%, um, for the month of July. So year-to-date, we're down 16%. For the month of July, we're down 29%, again compared to 2019. So we're down compared to 2023, but we also happen to be down compared to the last normal pre-pandemic, uh, time that we've had. So think about what happened during COVID We essentially borrowed sales from the future during the, the mad rush to try to get property down here in Southwest Florida. And we know that was for a lot of reasons, right? During the pandemic though, it set a wave set in motion that based on the temporary increase in demand we were seeing, well, what was the natural response? Prices began to increase as inventory vanished. So if you think about the number of homes available for December of 2021, it was 1,042. That was pretty low. So it was a shortage of inventory, drove prices up, but this rush was short-lived and many sellers unfortunately have been slow to adapt to the new reality. Now let's talk inventory. Overall inventory has been climbing for about the last 28 months. For July, inventory increased 50.5% to 4,352 properties versus July of 2023, we were at 2,892. There are 6.5 months of inventory, and that's at a macro level for all of Naples. And I point that out because there are pockets of Naples where inventory is significantly higher than that. This is where it is so important to understand what segment of the market you're in, either by the style of house, the, uh, the particular area of Naples, your community, the price point. So overall, 6.5 months of inventory doesn't sound horrible, but I can assure you there are some areas, particularly in some of the luxury segments, that are experiencing much more inventory. But even at 6.2 months of inventory, or 6.5 if we round up, that's still up 59%. So July July of 2023, we were at 2.9 months of inventory. Conversely, overall closed sales have been declining since July of 2021, or 36 months ago. So priced right to sell, you know, is important, right? Inventory levels have returned to a bit more historic normal levels, yet well above where we were the last couple of years. So with additional competition for sellers, too many sellers are still expecting to receive aspirational prices when we have fewer buyers seeking greater values. On average, home values in Naples have increased 50% since 2019. That's not insignificant. So, you know, sometimes when you're on the drug of crazy, you know, value increase in your property, people get a little grumpy about what they're seeing as prices and they lose sight of the fact that these are still significant valuations over the property values in 2009. 2019. So I'm seeing sellers that aren't quite always ready to let go. I'll hear things like, you know, wow, I'm giving them a really good deal on this property, and— excuse me— they're not realizing that it really isn't a really good value when you look at what the market is willing to pay now. So yes, we're seeing price decline, but sellers should take assurance in knowing that their values are still significantly higher than they were if they had tried to sell pre-pandemic. So the pandemic still had some lasting effects that we can't discount. But sellers, we need you to really buckle down and think about, you know, home valuations. Unfortunately, because it's been so fluid, there have been relatively recent sales that are no longer attainable because of what's happening in the market. And the longer it takes you to come to grips with that, the the more— devastating is a hard word— but the harder it is going to be to get the price that you might have otherwise gotten had you just priced it right from the get-go. So again, due in large part to the buying frenzy of the pandemic, you know, that drove the prices up, but it's over, folks. Inventory has increased substantially, and sellers need to really hone in on their realtor's recommendations on pricing for their home to make sure it's competitive in today's market. You know, there's factors such as high interest rates, high insurance premiums, and these are all creating financial obstacles for a large number of buyers. Additionally, the number of cash transactions— so this is really important because in the past I've talked about how Naples is not— it's not unusual for us to be a 70% cash market, but cash buyers— cash transactions, I should say, not cash buyers— it decreased 51.9% in July compared to 61.2% in January. So we've had highs of being a 70% cash market. It went down to 61.24%, um, and, uh, the previous— I think this is wrong— in, I'm sorry, in January, and it declined even more to 51.9% in July. So that's about 20% difference. What does this mean? It means that a higher proportion of buyers had more those mortgages are going to be ultra-sensitive to some of the other factors that are influencing what's happening in the economy, right? Interest rates, cost of insurance, um, those are all driving up prices, and prices are coming down incrementally, not significantly, but incrementally. But there's an indication into the July report that more negotiations are taking place in both low and high-end price points. I'm seeing some of the closed-to-list prices, you know, in the 80s percents, right? Mid-80s. So the days when we thought we were getting 100%, I think everybody knows those are gone, but I still have sellers that are holding on to trying to get prices that are in the 98, 96. There might occasionally be that. I had one the other day get a full price offer, but we were smart in how we priced it. And we had competition for the property. So that can still happen in pockets, but the reality is the majority of the properties, buyers are going to expect to see negotiations off of their property values. It just is what it is. Does it mean you go set your price higher to give you more room? One could argue that, but remember, if you're overpriced, people aren't going to come and see it. So you've got to price it right if you're serious about selling Now, the one thing a lot of people forget about us Realtors and why I am somewhat sensitive to pricing— the day we sign that listing agreement, I start spending money on getting your home sold. If you're so far above what I think the market is willing to pay, it would be silly. I might as well roll down my window in the car and just start throwing my money out. So, um, you know, you may find an agent or 2 or 3 or 10 or 100 that are willing to take your listing too high, either because they don't know how to say no, or they don't know what's going on in the market enough to be an expert, or they just want the advertising to get their name on a sign. But agents that are really going to get the job done for you are going to be really smart about pricing and understand what to do with valuations. And if you're too far off the planet, you're going to pass up the opportunity to work with the agents that may be in the best position to actually get your home sold. So keep in mind, again, we're seeing negotiation at both the low and the high-end price points of the market. Um, the percent of list price received in July, uh, I think 2024 decreased 1.4%. So again, not surprising, you're seeing that come down. So the average closed price versus, um, list price— and keep in mind, this is versus the recent list price, so you're not even taking into consideration the original list price, so it might have had price drops in between— but closed closed price to recent list price, we'll say, was sitting at 94.8% of the list price. So keep in mind, um, that people are expecting negotiations. So now let's take a look at, um, median prices. What is that doing? So if you look at the median closed price during June and July, that also decreased, but it wasn't significantly. It was only 0.8%. In July, the overall median closed price was $590,000 versus $595,000 in July 2023. For both summer months, um, the— if you combine June and July looking, the reductions in the median closed price of single-family homes drove— really drove the overall median closed price decrease. So single-family homes were selling for less in relation to prior year than what you saw condo shifts doing. In fact, the, the median closed price for condominiums actually slight increase in June and July. So not surprisingly, given the other market measures, days on market also experienced an increase, and it was 45% increase in days on market. So as we look forward, there's going to be a lot of things that we want to keep an eye on that could nudge the real estate market in either direction. Things like interest rates, the election outcomes, um, homeownership costs, inflation, and other factors. So we'll continue watching those things closely and be ready to adjust accordingly. In the meantime, if you want to talk more about in detail about these high-level market, um, statistics and information, or you want to dive deeper into your community or specific area, reach out anytime and you can get me at 239-287-2576 or at yournaplesexpert.com. I'm certainly, uh, looking forward to seeing what happens. I have many properties that I'm still holding off market right now during these slow months. So how quickly the high season will bounce back, or how strong, um, I wish I had a crystal ball to know that. I think if I did, I'd be doing some crazy investing, um, both in real estate and other sectors as well. I wish I had that magic potion, but we're all kind of— again, when you've been in a fluid state for multiple years, none of which was very predictable. It's hard to know how the fall and the winter high months are going to play out, so we'll watch it closely. The key is going to be partner up with a knowledgeable, data-driven, sensible, and confident real estate agent so that you are equipped with a partner that can guide you through some of those tough decisions. And keep an open mind. I always say if you can try your best to push the emotion aside and focus on data, you'll usually make good decisions. It's when emotion starts to get involved and you're doing knee-jerk reactions and you're going off of gut instead of data, you're going to get yourself in trouble. We always like to think we know better, but you can't argue with data. So again, nice talking with you. Have a fantastic holiday weekend and we'll talk soon.
