More Lessons from Elon Musk (Not) Buying Twitter

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I want to say Musk said this, that like the good about a recession is that it kind of weeds out all the companies that didn't deserve to survive. How much more successful would you be.

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Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Business Lunch with Roland Frazier and Ryan Deiss. Ryan, how are you doing today?

Well, I'm doing better this week than I have been. You know, you and I have a slightly different perspective maybe on our investing. Right. Like, so you like to keep all of your money tied up in, like, cash and companies. I will more put money in the market. I don't do individual stocks or anything like that, but I will put money in index funds and things like that just to kind of park it there. And man, it has been brutal the last few weeks. And I've made the mistake of going in and checking it, which is the worst thing to do. The only thing dumber than that is to actually sell, you know, at this point in time, which we talked about in the previous episode. But it was nice.

Last week I thought you were supposed to sell the dip. I thought that was like what most people did.

Yeah, buy the high, sell the dip. All the cool kids are doing. No, that hopefully everybody knows that's a joke. This is not investment advice. So anyway, last week it was better and that made me feel good. But then two articles came out that I that I saw. One of them talked about how apparently strippers exotic Dancers, whatever you want to say, they have decided that the recession is upon us. It is real because there's considerably less people in men's clubs, I guess, and apparently this is something that they've seen in the past. And similarly, Yahoo, I'm looking at right now. Yahoo Finance reported that the fluffy puppy indicator. The fluffy puppy indicator is flashing red for the U.S. economy. And this is apparently, you know, pet stocks and just generally how much people are spending on their furry friends is down.

Those are indications of like stalls. But you know, the true indication of a recession is when the strippers stop having their puppies fluffed. So that's when they stop cleaning their dogs and buying toys from them. Then we're in a recession. That's, that's science.

Yeah. So anyway, I guess, long story short, I was happy and then I read these and, and now I'm worried and basically I just, I'm in this state right now and it's really healthy for me where I essentially let the news cycle dictate my emotions and I don't see what could go wrong with that.

Yeah, no, I mean, hey, that's for a whole week you can be up, right? That's cool. I like it.

Well, unless it, unless it, you know, goes, drops down. But no, I mean seriously, so where we are right now, and we talked about this before, I don't, it is really hard to tell. You know, I was pretty convinced like hey, it seems like things are slowing down, right? And arguably they needed to now slowing down from where they were at these artificial highs and pulling back to like the five year average, arguably where it should have been all along can feel like a slowdown when really it's just kind of where it should be. But I cannot figure out like so have we sort of bottomed out to the average and now we're going to continue back to kind of that upward pace or is there still more room to fall out of the system? Is there still more, more bottom to be had? And I'm not asking, you know, as a fearful investor or anything like that. I'm asking in terms of like deals, you know, deals and things like that.

So what do you think?

You got any crystal ball projections?

They, yeah, and they're worth all, all, all that we are paying each other for this advice, safety's opinions, about as.

Much as the fluffy puppy indicator or the strip club indicator. Okay.

Yeah, combined. So yeah, it's interesting to me like if you study kind of, if you say, well 20% basically puts us into bear territory. 20, 25%. But there's no like official rule. It's just kind of a feeling that everybody has that that's an indication of, you know, of it. Looking at the other things that are going, it seems like everybody is nervous, which is good because that tends to cause people to slow down just a little bit. And even here we were out looking at houses in the Southern California area this weekend and for the change between just two months ago and now in terms of the offers that are coming in, no inspection, name your firstborn after the person who's the seller. Why you want that, I don't know. And 16 cash offers that are over market with no inspection, no nothing, sight unseen is now. And by the way, you're going to pay significantly over list price is now we're seeing price reductions on properties and I mean significant ones, you know, 5, 10%. That hasn't been the case for a while. So that given the interest rate, roughly doubling the mortgage on, you know, rate for a 30 year mortgage over the past few months, that is what generally works very effectively to slow the economy down. And the concern I think is that if the Fed keeps going then they did that in 74. They basically raised rates, raised rates, raised rates, but it basically threw the economy into a recession. And then we had rallies. There were two 10% rallies, two 8% rallies and two 7% rallies. But 20 months of bear market. So those like up small bump up weeks can be very maddening for people trying to figure out which way the wind's gonna blow. But the bottom line is that, yeah, what you said initially I think is all that matters is that the good news for investors is that people who are scared and want out to stop any losses that they are concerned about, they are getting what they want. And so this is something I think is important from a mindset standpoint is that you're not taking advantage of people that sell when they're panicking and the market is going down. They actually need to do that for their emotional sanity and security. And so more and more people we see moving in that direction and deals that were commanding higher multiples I think are going to fall particularly in the larger and in the tech sector. But in the small and medium sized private owned company as we talked about I think last time, the multiples are actually up. So there are a lot of opportunities for the people who aren't sophisticated sellers who just want to get out now and don't want to go through another recession and have priced accordingly or are flexible to price accordingly. I think there's tremendous opportunity.

Yeah, I was talking to somebody who kind of, I don't want to say a friend that makes it sound like we like hang out super socially, a business friend, colleague who was interested in perhaps selling her to us. And I didn't tell you about this because, you know, the price that she wanted to sell it was so incredibly, I was like, God, like, no, like if you can get it, great, you're not going to get it from us. Well, she just circled back around and I heard through a friend of friend like, hey, did you hear so and so think about selling their company? I was like, yeah, I heard they were thinking about selling it like a year or so ago. It's like, yeah, well, I think now they're getting pretty, you know, interested in selling it. I still don't know if there's a good enough deal to be had, but I'm betting, I'm betting that it's half of what they were going to. Just like knowing kind of where the market is right now, knowing kind of the level of urgency. And I think we're going to be seeing a lot more of that. So both on the buy side with, you know, with respect to deals and the other interesting thing that we're seeing is from a labor market perspective, there's considerably less just craziness right now. I saw Harvard Business Review put out this article about kind of what to look for and you know, how to go about testing a four day work week. Right. And I looked at that and it was supposed like May 27th. And I'm like, I don't, I wonder if anybody's actually asking for this right now. Like this is such a, a remnant of the we don't want to come back to war, we don't have to work, the government's giving us all this money. You know, I don'. Think I want to have to do that. I cannot imagine right now somebody coming out being like, you know, well, I'm not going to work. Unless, I mean, you're seeing layoffs right now happening at a lot of companies, especially funded startups. Layoffs galore. I can't imagine somebody being like, well, I refuse to come into work unless you go to a four day, you know, workweek kind of thing. You're just not seeing it. So I think for entrepreneurs, especially for bootstrapped, self funded entrepreneurs who aren't just overwhelmed by a ton of debt that could be called any minute, like I think it's going to be a really good, a really good time, a whole lot of noise is about to get sucked out of the market.

Well, I think I want to say Musk said this, that like the good about a recession is that it kind of weeds out all the companies that didn't deserve to survive. And I know we talk about that. I agree 100%. This is a great opportunity to get the noise out of the market and the people who are overfunded and spending stupidly and driving ad costs up and taking labor with crazy salaries and benefits packages and things like that that they can't sustain because you can't like. So it creates, it does great harm, I think, to the labor market because it tells the labor pool, hey, you can command these crazy salaries and benefits and things, but the truth is none of that is sustainable. And it's only going to damage everybody if we try to kind of fake sustain it. Or, you know, it's, it's all funded from investors who ultimately are going to lose their money. Right. It's, you know, that's a, I think it's a good thing from that standpoint.

Yeah, I can't imagine, you know, so as a company, let's say as a company you're kind of struggling. Like let's say you're a funded startup, right? And you're struggling and now you know that growth is probably going to be a little tougher just because there's going to be some compression in spend. You know, also that that next round of funding is probably not going to be as easy as the previous one. And if it is, it may be a down round. So you're trying to push it out as far as possible. There's no freaking way you're going to switch to a four day work week. Right? And this is why you've got to be so careful in the boom times, the really, really good times of just throwing first principles out the window. And look, I know there's got to be some kind of balance, but this idea that, you know, I really only want to work, you know, 20, 30 hours, you know, a week, but still get paid a full time wage. Because it was funny that if you go and read the Harvard Business Review, they were like, the big problem with the four day work week is employers are basically saying that, okay, you can work just four days instead of five, but they didn't reduce their workload. So they basically said you have to work harder in the four days. And people are like, this is, this sucks, this isn't fair.

Let's put two hours more a day on each of those four days. That Then it equals the same thing.

But, but they're saying that's not, that's not fair. If you do that, that doesn't work. Right? That doesn't work. That, that. And obviously not because nobody's actually going to be productive over an extended period of time working 10 hour days.

That's the challenge. Yeah, exactly. Right.

You're just not.

It sounds kind of actually like it would work, right? It's like, oh, well, you just put two hours more. Yeah, I'll work two hours more a day to have a full, you know, three day weekend every week, you know.

But the big takeaway from the article was basically if you're going to do the four day work week, you essentially need to reduce your output by 20%. Okay, so we're going to reduce our output by 20% at a time when everything just got harder. No, you're dead. Like what just happened is you make the decision to do that, you make the decision to go out of business because your competitor won't, because they can't. Right? And so it just creates this kind of bizarro, unsustainable, unscalable expectation among the labor force. So I just, for so many reasons, I think this is going to be cleansing. It's going to get a lot of just the absolute noise that is just pure noise. I mean, so many businesses have been started that just sucked. No good products, man. Think about all the craziness in like the crypto and NFT world, like all the money that's been flowing into that, right? Come on, man, like that's not going to be normal. So anyway, I think it's long term going to be good. I think as business owners, you know, it's probably going to be a good thing. In the, in the meantime, keep, you know, don't watch your portfolio too closely. You know, the 401k. I want to get your opinion, by the way, on this Elon Musk Twitter deal. From a deals perspective. Not necessarily like, is it going to happen? But from a structuring of doing deals. But yeah, I think you're going where I'm going. Before we do that, do you want to show, do we want to show some love to one of our sponsors?

I think that sounds like a very good idea.

Ryan here. And look, if you're an entrepreneur, you're busy, right? Whether it's replying to emails or scheduling meetings, whatever, there is a lot of work and a lot of hats that we need to wear as entrepreneurs. And that's why as entrepreneurs, especially if you're a visionary founder.

You need help.

Right? And I don't know about you, but at one point for me, I was getting so overwhelmed with all the little day to day tasks that, let's face.

It, they got to get done, but.

They don't necessarily need to get done by you. And so when I came to this realization, I said, I got to get help. I need to get a virtual assistant. I got to get a social media manager. And that's when I called my friends at Belay Solutions. Belay Solutions are an incredible organization. Now, look, I don't know about you, but I tried to work with VAs in the past. It was always a disaster. And so I was really, really suspicious of being able to make it work. But their process was fantastic. They found out the type of work that I need done, the type of people I like to work with, and they really did match me with a perfect virtual executive assistant. And this person's been with me now for three years and counting. So obviously it worked for me, and I think it's going to work for you. So here's what you need to do. All right? The good folks at Belay, they're actually giving listeners to this podcast $300 off the startup cost for their virtual assistants. So you'll pay less than I did.

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Awesome. Okay, so what about Mr. Musk?

Yeah, so you were telling me how the way he structured this deal, because my guess now I'd give it a 80 20. Well, 80%. It's not going to happen.

Oh, you think? You think 80? It's not.

I don't think it's. I don't think the Twitter deal with Elon's going to go through. I don't.

It seems like the stock is priced as if it is not.

Yeah, it seems like it's probably not going to happen. And I'm not going to, like, speculate on his sincerity in buying it. Or was it just pure strategy? I don't really know. But you were telling me the way that. Because everybody's like, well, he's got to go through it, because if he doesn't go through it, it's going to cost him a billion dollars. Because that was the thing that was reported.

Right?

He put in this offer. But as is the case with almost anything, right. If you enter into a contract to buy a home and you back out, you're going to lose your earnest money or something like that. In this case, the quote unquote earnest money was a billion dollars. But the way that he structured the contract was such that you think he's probably going to get out of that. So I'd love to get your kind of insight on that and what this could mean for somebody if they're looking to do maybe a smaller deal than, let's say, acquiring Twitter.

Yes, I was going to look. So I was trying to see the market cap of Twitter. Right now I see it's trading at 40 and I think wasn't his offer at like 54? Oh, there it is. So the market cap of Twitter right now, if you bought every share, is 30.7 billion.

Yeah, 30.7 billion.

A full 14 billion or 13, three less than his buyout offer. So if you think about it, I mean, just like straight math, if you could buy it out for its current market cap, you would be well advised to lose the billion. Say, screw that deal. I want a new deal. I'll pay the billion and I'll still buy it. And you would still save 12.3 billion. So, like, just straight off the top, that's an interesting thing to think about. Right? And then the next thing to think about is that what he really did, it was actually really smart. And what's funny is it's one of the kind of contrarian ways that we look at how we make offers to people. So he said, a billion dollars is the breakup fee. But I'm not going to require any due diligence. I'm going to rely 100% on publicly available, provided that that information is correct. And the board said, cool, right. And what it effectively did, I think, is it gave him a billion dollar option to buy at 44 billion. Number one, if that was something that he decided made sense. Number two, if the market dropped dramatically as it has, he'd be better off to take the billion dollar loss and go ahead and buy it at the lower amount and still be billions and billions ahead. And number three, though, that's super, super cool about what he did, was all he has to do is find some publicly available information that is not accurate to get out of the billion also, and then go buy it for 30 billion and save $14 billion. Right. So that to me is pretty amazing because they found, and I don't know if they had this as A thing. But it was mentioned early on how many fake, how many bot accounts exist. And if there's a certain number of them that were estimated, but then that estimate was very low, that would create a significant deviation in the publicly available information from the. You know, the actual. And therefore give him a.

And I think Twitter's estimate is. It was 5%.

Yeah. And I think he's saying it's.

Which. Anybody who's ever used Twitter is like, that seems low. Quite low, you know.

Right. So really, for him, it was a pretty safe bet, because I would bet that some smart attorney or investment banker or he himself was thinking, you know what, we got this in our back pocket just in case we need it. And you know what? If There are only 5% accounts that are fake, then maybe it's a good deal at 44, but this gives us an out. Our biggest exposure is a billion. But the truth is, I don't even think we have that. And so maybe what we do is we go in, we find out, we then get everything that we want. Maybe they make some changes on the board, maybe some people leave, Maybe they, you know, do put us on, who knows? But then effectively, for no money out of pocket, you know, we get the ability to have had a look at it and see if it makes sense. And then when it returns back to the 30s and 40s, where it ought to trade and where it had traded, we just buy it like that. And by the way, he still owns this. You know, his percentage that he bought. That's kind of interesting. I think so.

Just mathematically, statistically speaking, most of our listeners are not Elon Musk.

I disagree.

I don't know it to be true, but I believe it to be true.

Do you have any research on that or you're just guessing?

I'm just guessing. I'll be honest. Most of them are not. But, yeah, I think we have more than two. And I'm not sure Elon even listens. But anyway, so for those who are not Elon Musk, but maybe they're doing deals. I mean, we talk a lot about buying and selling of small businesses. You've got an entire training course, we've got whole accelerators, groups on, you know, we help people buy and sell businesses. We do it.

What.

What are some tips based on kind of this Elon Musk strategy? How can people do more deals like Elon, where you got this awesome opportunity if it works out, and if it doesn't, you have basically no downside.

Yes. What we teach with, which is kind of it's a little bit against the common expectation. The common way of doing things right is that typically they say, let's go in, let's see, let's find a company we're interested in and then let's agree on some rough terms and then do a bunch of due diligence to agree that the things that represented actually are the case before we close the deal. But because of the way that we typically do deals, we typically will structure where you don't have to come out of pocket. We're letting the assets of the company and seller, financing and earnouts and things like that all pay for the company. And so if you're not bringing in third party capital and you're not personally liable and you're using an entity like a special purpose vehicle to go in, that's just basically any company you use only for the purpose of the acquisition, then you effectively can say, you know what, I'm going to get all of the representations and warranties, all the things that I expect to be true about the company. I want the seller to say that they're true in the document. Then we can go ahead and close the deal and we'll do the due diligence after, because in the agreement we'll have the right to offset and we won't have just given the seller a pile of cash to write off in the sunset that we'll probably never get back if things aren't the way they were represented. Instead we're saying, hey, seller, why don't you have some skin in the game and finance part of this yourself? And then we could offset. If we find something that's not true, we might be using the assets of the company itself to provide some of the funding, or we might have the seller wait to receive money based on the performance of the company in the future over the next couple of years, which is called an earnout. And so when you're using those types of things, you can close deals really quickly and avoid the breakup fee. That basically is implied because you have to pay accountants and attorneys a bunch of money to go through the financial statements and the documents and stuff of the company. You can skip all that stuff and say, hey, these are the things that must be true for me to continue to go forward with the deal after we close. Close the deal and then you have the deal done. So you know that it's going to close, you know that it's, you know it's done. And then have your accountants and attorneys do whatever they need to do to make you happy? And if you find that something isn't as represented, you basically get to say, I'm going to offset that against what we owe under the various financing terms that we did. So you're really not risking any of your capital or any investor capital, and you're getting to know that the deal is going to actually happen before you run up attorney and accountant fees. I think that's the biggest thing that, that, that you can get out of this. So he did that in a very clever way and it's, it was validating for us because that's actually kind of how we teach to do it too.

Yeah. And I know another thing that we do, and this is, it doesn't have all the same protection of what you talked about, but something that I've heard you say, and it's, it's pretty common when you're dealing with institutional buyers, is your, your offer can be based on a, on a multiple of EBITDA or based on a multiple of, you know, earnings or something like that. So as opposed to saying, I'm going to buy it for X, it's, I'm going to get it for this multiple based on this number. And then if that number winds up being wrong or different, then, you know, the number changes. Well, and I guess that, you know, if it winds up being wrong to the high side, then, then that could perhaps be problematic. But that's only never the case. Right.

This isn't like, it's really funny though, because we do use that, and it actually was in a deal that we were buying a big company in Australia that was operating in Australia and New Zealand. And we had agreed on everything and all of the legal and accounting and all that was done. But, and we had agreed on the multiple of ebitda, but the EBITDA came in significantly lower when the audited financials got released for the most recent quarter. And it caused the price to fall to the extent that the seller basically backed out of the deal. And so we still ended up all of the flights to go to Australia and fly over the country and New Zealand to the checking out, meeting with accountants, attorneys, all that stuff. And all the time, it was about six months of time, all got wasted because the seller, you know, if it fell below a certain level, the seller was able to have an out in this, this way of doing things that wouldn't happen. And so we would not have lost the money that we lost there. So I kind of like this better. That's, that's really why we do it the way that I'm mentioning these days.

And in this case it's not, you know, it's because you're basically allowing the business to kind of fund itself. What you, you know, teach, what you talk about in the Epic accelerator. Right?

Correct.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

So kind of cool.

Very cool. And I think, you know, it's fun to look at these examples, people like Elon Musk, and to just see it as a news story. But as entrepreneurs, y', all, there's, look, there may be more zeros attached to the end of these deals, but it's amazing how similar they are, right? Business is still business. People are still people. Deals are still deals. And so, yes, look at it to a certain extent for the entertainment value. Fine. But also look at it for the lessons that can be learned. I think when it comes to getting in and out of these deals, making sure that you've got those protections is going to be, is going to be really an important thing for anybody who's out there doing these kind of deals. Also understanding the types of requests that might be made if you're the, the one on the sell side.

Yeah. And so it's on the buy side, I think the takeaway is you can do due diligence after the fact, and if you do, it can protect you against having a seller that wants to back out of the deal because the deal will already be closed. And then you're just in an offset situation. The other takeaway would be don't put yourself in a situation where something that you could find out wasn't the case is greater than the amount of the offset that would want you to still, you know, that would make it still a doable deal for you. On the sell side, be careful to not like in this case. I think the board was kind of surprised at Twitter that they thought they had this breakup fee. And so they agree on this. And then I don't think they thought about the fact that the stock price might go down to the point where the breakup fee would be inconsequential to the buyer. In this case, Musk's like, I could make 14 billion or lose a billion. So it's like that's kind of a no brainer for him. I would eat that breakup fee every single time and go back to the table again. But as the board, you got to be careful because is that a good move? And actually, I think that board may have opened themselves up to some liability from the shareholders because it's like, did you get enough? You know, was that a big Enough fee. And they did a lot of things like allowing that out of relying on the public information for a, you know, for that company, that was a pretty crafty thing that he did. So be careful as a seller that you actually have the deal that you think you have and that you don't provide outs that would allow somebody to take a look, let the world know, and then maybe go back and have a second bite at the apple.

Yeah, certainly don't provide outs for data that either, you know, you don't have, or if you do, because they're saying that they do have it, they're just not willing to give it to them.

Right.

So certainly don't provide outs on data that you're not willing to provide. You know, unless, who knows, maybe they, you know, the board sitting there going muhaha. As well, because they never wanted this deal to happen either. They just wanted to be able to show that, oh, we tried, we upheld our fault. Fiduciary into the bargain. And everybody just goes back to their respective corners. I think the big takeaway for us is deals are not risky if you structure them properly. Deals like doing deals, acquisitions can be one of the fastest, least risky ways to scale based on everything, you know, and the stuff that you don't know, if you're smart, you structure the right way, you can put little provisions in place to make sure that those don't come out and bite you too hard.

Exactly.

Hey, Roland, if somebody likes all this deal stuff and they want to do deals like Elon, where could they go to learn how to do those kind of things?

Well, what a fantastic question. They could go to the. So we basically have a challenge that we run, and typically it's every month or so, and it's called the epic challenge. It's@getepichallenge.com you can definitely go there and check it out, or you can go to the website where we have our trainings, which is ethically profit dot com. So it's all about how we do these deals, how we do acquisitions with little or no money out of pocket. And it's really funny because Ryan and I were talking the other day, and it's like we were both sitting on quite a bit of cash, and it's like in anticipation of doing some deals, and we just kept not needing the cash because of how we do the deals. And so it's kind of funny that you really. I mean, there are traditional deals and we have a program that's coming out to talk about that. But the truth is, like, for us and these private companies that we've been buying, it very often just doesn't take any money as long as you know all of the different financing sources and we've got about 221 of them we've identified now. So if that is something that you're interested in playing with, you should definitely check out getepichallenge.com and ethically profit.com and if you like the podcast, you should maybe think about subscribing so you don't miss out on any of the issues. And you might want to leave us a five star review. Just saying that you do actually enjoy the kinds of things we talk about with that. Brian, unless you have anything else, I think we'll sign off for today.

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