Is The New Jersey Real Estate Market About To Change EVERYTHING?

Welcome to the deep dive. Today we're jumping straight into the New Jersey real estate scene.

Yep. Specifically Bergen, Essex, Hudson and Passaic counties.

Exactly. We've got the March 2025 report right here from the New Jersey MLS.

Our mission, as always, is to kind of cut through these numbers for you.

Yeah. Figure out what's really going on if you're thinking about buying or maybe selling or, you know, just watching the market in this area.

We'll be looking at the year over year changes, the specifics for March itself.

And also the trends for single families. Townhouses, condos, those adult communities, too.

And it's interesting, before we dive into the local stuff, there was that national report from nar, the national association of Realtors. Oh, right.

What did that say again?

Well, nationally, they're seeing a pretty big jump in the number of homes for sale compared to last year.

Oh, okay.

But, and this is the interesting part for you listening, when we zoom in on our four counties here in Jersey, it's. Well, it's kind of a different story.

Absolutely. So while maybe there are more options popping up nationwide here, particularly for single family homes, things look a bit tighter. Let's get into those numbers. Okay, so new listings for single family homes in March, they were actually up 6.6% compared to last March. That's a 1073 homes.

Right. A bit of a bump in March.

But here's the thing. If you look at the year so far, January through March, new listings are actually down 4.6%. It's a little confusing.

Yeah, it's a bit of a seesaw, like you said, it suggests maybe a late surge of sellers in March, but not quite enough to offset a slower start to the year overall.

So for you as a buyer, maybe a few more options right at the end of the quarter. But the bigger picture this year is still fewer new homes hitting the market.

Exactly. And then the question is, how many of those are actually going under contract?

Right. Pending sales, Those are the homes with accepted offers. They decrease down 2.7% in March compared to last year. So 765 homes and year to date, also down 4.4%. And closed sales, the ones that actually finish the process, tell a pretty similar story. Down 3.5% for the month and down 6.0% for the year so far.

Okay. So fewer homes going under contract, fewer deals actually closing. You might initially think, oh, the market's cooling off.

Right.

Last activity, you have to look at prices to get the full picture of the pressure. That's still there.

And yeah, the prices definitely tell a different story. The median sales price for single family homes, it jumped big time, up 8.6% in March alone.

Wow.

To $710,000. That's up from about $653,000 just last year.

That's a hefty increase.

And year to date, the median is up even more, 10.2%. The average sales price is climbing too, up 8% in March. And get this up almost 17%, 16.9% year to date.

So even with fewer sales happening, the price tags on those sales are significantly higher. That just screens strong demand relative to what's available.

Definitely.

Buyers are clearly still willing to pay up for the homes that are on the market. So for you, maybe slightly less competition in terms of sheer numbers, but you're facing much higher prices.

Which brings us to how much sellers are actually getting the percent of list price received, it edged up slightly, 105.2% in March. So still over asking on average. Yep, up from 104.2% last year. And year to date is also up a bit. It just highlights that, you know, if a home is priced well, buyers are still having to bid over the list price.

Absolutely. That competitive pressure hasn't gone away. Interestingly though, the days on market, how long homes sit before selling, it actually went down just slightly.

Oh, really?

Yeah. 40 days in March this year versus 41 last year and year to date, it's unchanged at 41 days.

So fewer homes selling, higher prices, but the ones that do sell are still moving pretty quickly.

Relatively quickly, yes.

Yeah.

But the impact of those rising prices, it really hits when you look at affordability.

The housing affordability index. Yeah, yeah. That went down to 59 in March from 63 last year. Year to date is also down.

And a lower number means less affordable. It's harder to buy.

Exactly. Your money just doesn't go as far as it did a year ago for a single family home here.

It's a direct result of those price jumps. It puts a squeeze on buyers, especially, you know, first time buyers. So connecting back to that national trend, what about the actual number of homes for sale here, the inventory?

Right. And here's where it really differs from that national picture you mentioned. Inventory for single family homes, it dropped significantly down 28.0% in March compared to last year. Only 3302 homes available versus over 1800 last March. That's, that's a huge reduction in choice for buyers.

And that dramatic drop in inventory is a huge reason why prices are up and why the month supply is so tight.

Explain months supply again quickly.

Sure. It's basically, if no new homes came on the market, how long would it take to sell everything currently listed at the current pace of sales?

Got it.

And that number, it's down to just 1.7 months for single family homes. Last March, it was 2.4 months.

Wow.

Yeah. That firmly keeps us in a strong seller's market. Very limited options if you're looking for a single family home right now in these counties.

Okay, cool. That's the single family picture. Let's. Let's switch gears. What about townhouses and condos?

Same story, similar themes, but maybe a slightly different flavor. New listings for townhouses and condos were up, but just barely 1.9% in March.

Okay.

And year to date, actually down slightly less than 1%. So the flow of new townhouses and condos has been, let's say, more stable than single family.

But what about the buying side? Pending sales?

That's where we see a bigger dip. Pending sales for townhouse condos dropped significantly, down 10.5% in March. Oof. Yeah. And year to date, also down about 5.6%. Closed sales followed suit, down 7.1% in March and 2.3% year to date.

So, like single family, less actual sales activity compared to last year.

Correct. But despite that drop in sales volume, prices still went up. The median sales price for a townhouse or condo rose 8.1% in March to what? Hit $500,000 on the nose. And year to date, the median is up 10.2%. Average price also climbed, just not quite as sharply as single family. Up 5.5% in March, 8.5% year to date.

So again, fewer units selling, but they're still getting more expensive for you as a buyer in this segment, still facing higher prices, even if things feel a little slower.

That's a picture. And interestingly, the percent of list price received, it actually dipped slightly for townhouses and condos.

Oh, below 100%?

No, still over. But down to 101.2% in March from 101.3% last year. Year to date, also down just a hair off. It's subtle, but it could mean maybe bidding wars aren't quite as intense here compared to single family.

Hmm. Okay, a slight easing there, maybe, Maybe.

But here's the really big difference we saw compared to single family homes. Days on market, how long they took to sell. Yeah, it increased dramatically for townhouses and condos jumped to 93 days in March.

93. What was it last year?

Just 47 days.

Wow. It basically doubled pretty much.

And the year to date figure also more than doubled, up to 95 days from 45 last year. That's a huge slowdown in how quickly these properties are selling.

Okay, that is a big change. What do you think is behind that? Why are townhouses and condos suddenly sitting so much longer?

Well, it could be a few things. Maybe buyers in the segment are just being a bit more picky now, taking more time.

Or maybe prices got ahead of what buyers are willing or able to pay right now.

That's definitely possible. You know, with prices still rising but sales activity slowing, buyers might just be hesitating more, not jumping in qu as fast as they were. And unsurprisingly, the affordability index here also dropped. These are getting less affordable, too.

Makes sense. And inventory for townhouses and condos, did that fall as much as single family?

It did decrease, yes, but not quite as sharply. Down 13.4% in March compared to last year.

Okay, still down, but not that 28% drop we saw for single family.

Exactly. And the month supply also decreased, but again, less dramatically moved to 2.3 months from 2.7 months. So inventory is tighter than last year. Definitely, but buyers, relatively speaking, have slightly more options here than in the single family market.

All right, good context. So that leaves one more category. The adult community market. What did the March data show there?

Okay, the adult community market. This is where we saw some of the most, let's say, pronounced shifts. New listings down significantly, 20% fewer in March compared to last year.

20%.

And down year to date as well. Pending sales, a really substantial drop. Down 37.5% in March.

Whoa.

Yeah. And down 18.5% year to date. Closed sales also fell dramatically, down 35% in March. Almost 12% for the year.

So across the board, activity, new listings, pendings, closings, all the way down in.

The adult communities, much, much less activity. So if you're thinking about moving into or out of an adult community right now, this data suggests things might be moving, well, quite a bit slower.

Interesting. What about prices in that segment? Did they follow the same upward trend?

Sort of, but with a twist. The median sales price did nudge up a bit. 4.4% in March.

Okay.

But the average sales price actually decreased down 4.8% in March. And year to date, the average price is down a pretty notable 8.1%.

Huh. That is different from the other segments. Why would the average go down while the median goes up slightly?

It could suggest a shift in what type of units are selling within these communities. Maybe more lower priced units sold recently, which would pull the overall average down, even if the price of the middle or typical home went up slightly.

Okay, that makes sense.

We also saw the percent of list price received dip a little here too. Again suggesting maybe less intense bidding.

And days on market, did they also increase like the townhouses?

They did significantly jumped to 64 days in March, up from 39 last year. Year to date, also way up.

So another segment where properties are taking quite a bit longer to sell. If you're selling in an adult community, seems like you need to be prepared for it to sit a bit longer.

Now that seems to be the case. Yes. Affordability index here also down slightly, following the overall trend. But here's another quirk.

Yeah.

The month supply of inventory, it actually remains stable. 1.4 months, same as last March.

Wait, even with new listings and sales dropping so much, how does that work?

It likely suggests that buyer demand in this specific segment has probably softened proportionally. So even though fewer homes came on the market, fewer people were buying them too, keeping that supply demand balance. That month supply number relatively consistent, even though it's very low.

Fascinating. Okay, so we've gone through single family, townhouse condos and adult communities. If we try to pull this all together, take a step back and look at the whole picture for these four counties. What are the main takeaways from March 2025?

Well, the big headline is still rising prices. Median and average sales prices are generally up across the board. That hasn't changed much.

Right.

It's still expensive, but underneath that, the dynamics are getting more varied. New listings, pending sales, closed sales. They're doing different things depending on the.

Property type and inventory overall.

Overall inventory is down significantly. That's a huge factor. It's contributing to that low month supply figure we see. When we combine everything, which was combining all property types, month supply was to 1.9 months. So still very much favoring sellers overall.

But, and this seems like a big but, those days on market figures for townhouse condos and adult communities jumped way up.

Exactly. We can't ignore that. That substantial increase in how long those properties are taking to sell, it really indicates some kind of shift is happening, at least in those market segments.

So what's the bottom line here for you? The listener prices are generally still climbing.

But maybe not uniformly across all types of sales activity.

Right. And the fact that pending sales are down across the board, plus those big jumps in days on market for condos and adult communities, it suggests things might be I don't know, transitioning a bit. It's not just a straightforward boom everywhere.

I think that's a good way to put it. That increased time on market, especially for those segments, it could signal buyers are maybe getting more cautious or perhaps more sensitive to pricing given interest rates and the broader economy.

Yeah. Are we starting to see those bigger economic factors really bite into buyer behavior, especially in certain parts of the market?

It certainly raises the question.

So that's really the final thought for you to chew on. Given these trends we've just walked through for Bergen, Essex, Hudson and Passaic counties. What could these shifts actually mean if you're planning to buy or sell in the next few months?

And maybe more importantly, what other factors? Things beyond just these MLS stats, like where interest rates go next or changes in the job market. What role will they play in shaping things here?

Definitely something to keep a very close eye on as we move through 2025. Thanks for taking this deep dive with us today.