Market Review 12th-16th Oct 2020

So good morning, good morning, good morning everyone. If you can hear me, let me quickly get our yes on the chat box so we can start this morning's review. Okay, okay, that's good. I'm getting some yes from us. Okay, okay, that's great. So let's start with forexfactory.com. Okay, so that's great. This is forexfactory.com. So today there's going to be bank holiday in the US as well as in Canada, and by 5 PM today we're expecting a speech by the Bank of England governor, that's Bailey. Bailey has about 30 years experience at the Bank of England and has actually been able to spend about 3 years, 3 out of those 30 years experience at the Bank of England as the Deputy Governor of the bank. So he's someone that is well experienced when it comes to central banking. And his speech later today is expected to give some direction to the pound ahead of the Brexit deadline, which has been fixed for next Tuesday, if they're able to get a deal through. Or a no-deal Brexit. By next Tuesday, we are going to know if it will be a deal Brexit or a no-deal Brexit. So tomorrow being Tuesday, we're expecting, um, claimant count change from Britain. So claimant count change is just like the unemployment claims from the United States. So we're going to get to have an idea as to the state of the labor market in Britain. And by 1:30 PM tomorrow will be the turn of CPI as well as core CPI from the United States. In recent time, the CPI has actually been growing and We're expecting a 0.2% growth for last month. That's due to the fact that CPI has been growing in the last few months in the United States. So I expect that to also continue when the data is released tomorrow. So anything above 0.2% would be a very good one for the dollar. So the dollar might be able to get a little bit strengthened if the CPI data tomorrow comes out good. And because the 2 will be released at the same time, that's by 1:30 PM, CPI month by month as well as core CPI month by month, I would advise us to pay more attention to the core CPI month by month because it is less volatile compared to the CPI month by month. So core CPI month by month is more important compared to CPI month by month. So on Wednesday, we'll be looking out for, um, the core PPI and then PPI month by month also from the United States. So just like I said about the core CPI the other time, so the core PPI is more important at this time also compared to PPI month by month. So we pay more attention to the PPI month by month. And by 10:45 PM on Wednesday, that's when, um, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe would be speaking. Um, over the weekend, the People's Bank of China decided to, um, short the yuan. Uh, they discovered that the yuan has actually been on a very strong bullish movement, especially against the dollar since around the month of May. And China is not particularly happy whenever the yuan is gaining strength, especially against the dollar, because they feel it places them at a disadvantage in their trade deals with other nations. So a weaker yuan is what the People's Bank of China has actually been looking out for, and they were able to come up with that decision on Saturday, which, uh, is also expected to weaken the Australian dollar as well as the New Zealand dollar, especially for the trading day like today. But as from tomorrow and then ahead of the speech by Lowe on Wednesday, we would have been able to have a clearer view of where the Australian dollar will be going for this week. Then on Thursday, we'll be starting with the employment change as well as unemployment rates from Australia. I still have to admit people. Okay, so employment change measures. The total number of persons who are able to be gainfully employed in Australia in the previous month, even though the forecast is negative, which gives a lot more room for the Australian dollar to be strengthened if you're able to get a positive actual data. So anything above -35K, so -34K, -30K, -25K, or even the positive figure of 1K, 2K, 3K, 4K, be a very good one for the Australian dollar. Then unemployment rate also at the same time. So unemployment rate is expected to have grown by 0.3% from, from the last time, which was at 6.8%. So if unemployment rate will come out lower than 7.1%, then the Australian dollar would be able to gain some strength, especially against the dollar, as at 1.3030. AM. Then by 1:30 PM, to be the turn of— okay, someone is raising his hand. If you have any question, you can just put it in the chat box so I'll be able to look at the question. Then unemployment claims by 1:30 PM. So 1:30 PM to be the turn of unemployment claims. So 810,000 persons are expected to file for jobless insurance in the United States for last week. So any figure lower than 810,000 would be good for the US dollar and, uh, will lend some strength to the greenback by 1:30 PM on Thursday. Then finally on Friday, it will be the turn of, um, retail sales month by month. As well as retail sales month by month. So the core data are more important compared to the flat one, which is the retail sales month by month. So we should pay more attention to the core retail sales much more than the retail sales data, even though the 2 is coming out at the same time. So core retail sales more important compared to the retail sales. And then by 3 PM will be the turn of preliminary UAM consumer sentiment. So this one is a medium impact economic data, so not so important. A lot of attention would have been on the core retail sales data to be released by 1:30 PM. And the IMF meeting is also commencing on Friday. All through the weekend, we'll be looking out for the outcome of the IMF meeting to give us a clue as to the direction we'll be looking out for some currencies for next week. Okay, so at this point I think it would be the right time for us to go to the charts. Let's look out for trading opportunity for the week on the chart. But do you have any question before we go to the chart? If you have any question, quickly drop it on the chat box so we attend to that and then we move to the MT4. Okay, so we have a question here from Mr. Ayelaboshino. He's asking that, can one solely depend on Forex Factory For fundamental news? Well, not actually, sir. It's actually very good for us to have view from as many sites as possible. We have tradingeconomics.com, we have investing.com, we have bloomberg.com, we have cnbc.com. All these sites are very good for us to be able to have as much information as possible because the more informed we are, the better decision we'll be able to take in the market. information is really, really important in this market. But Forex Factory is a good place to start, and then we get more information from the other sites. And then another question from Mr. Steven from Anambra. He said if there's going to be a training for newbie. Yes, Mr. Steven, an online training is currently on at this moment, which you can also be a part of. And so you can quickly reach out to your account manager to get the link for you so that you can also be a part of the beginners class, which we call the Classic Financial Trading Program. Please, that is also ongoing at this moment, which you can also be a part of. So for today, I'm expecting the instrument to trade as low as around this price level, that's 0.72000. So we can have a pending buy limit from around that price so that once Australian dollar against the US dollar is able to trade to around this price level, then we can target overall around 0.73350 for this week. We expect it to trade bearish for today. Overall for the week, um, should be bullish, so it should retrace to retest at least This support, and, um, there's a likelihood of it even retesting the moving average. Yes. But you can have a pending buy limit, or a buy limit from around 0.72000. Okay, but can you hear me now? Someone is saying there's no audio. Can you hear me now? Can you hear me now? What of now? Can you hear me? Is Giorgio back? Okay, so let me, um, rephrase what I said earlier. I, I said I'm expecting the Australian dollar Against the USD, that's AUD/USD to test this price level. That's 0.72016. So from around this price level, we can have a buy limit on this instrument because I'm very bullish on AUD/USD for this week. Why? Based on the decision of People's Bank of China over the weekend, the Australian dollar as well as the New Zealand dollar is expected to be weak for today. So for us to take advantage of that, we can still, uh, go in on a short position based on that decision. But I would not want us to be on a sell trade on the instrument. Let's just wait for it to get to this price level, 0.72016, and then we can buy from there. Okay. This is USD/JPY. So in as much as this instrument does not close below this moving average for today, so it's currently struggling with the moving average. This is EMA 21, and as much as it doesn't close below it for today, then USD/JPY should be bullish for the week. But if this instrument is able to close as it is at this moment, if it's able to close this way at the close of today's candle, then USD/JPY is going to be a sell for the week. That is only if and only if it closes this way. So notice that this instrument has been on a strong bullish move since around Monday last week. The only bearish big candle we had rested on the moving average. That was on the 29th September, I guess. And then since then, there's been a very strong bullish move on US 500. So I still retain the bullish trend on US 500 because if you look at this particular candle, this one was formed on 4 stellar streak. This is a marubozu, bullish marubozu. on US500 on the daily charts, and that can only signal one direction. So US500 bullish for this week. So if you can even buy right away, uh, US500, so it's going to be a smooth buy for this week. Okay, so on EUR/USD, the euro has rallied significantly against, um, dollar, especially in the session last week. The pair was trading virtually between 1.17010 and then 1.18034 until early hours— late hours on Friday when it was able to close above the range that has been trading for a very long time. For about 2 days, it was trading narrowly between that 1.18038 and then 1.17010. So I expect the euro to continue to surge higher against the dollar, especially looking at the expected success of the stimulus package from the US. The stimulus package from the US is expected to weaken the dollar. The dollar has actually been acting as a safe haven currency In recent weeks, so if the stimulus package is eventually passed, then it should further weaken the dollar. I would see that the bullish run on Euro USD will continue. So Euro USD for this week still remain a buy trade. We can buy even right away because it's currently around the support where I expect it to push higher. And for gold, with the return of risk sentiment into the market based on the expectation on the signing of a fresh US stimulus, so gold might be negatively affected if there's no tension around the world. So, but with the US presidential election around, knocking around the corner, and with a lot of uncertainty around that election, So the commodity might be able to benefit from that uncertainty. If the uncertainty around the US presidential election is able to weigh on the greenback, then we should be expecting to see a bullish run on gold. But for today, I expect a bearish move on gold, even though overall I'm expecting gold to trade bullish for this week. Because if you look at the last 3 candles on the daily chart on gold, It's sending a very strong bullish signal on this instrument, just that I expect a little bit of retracement for today before the instrument continues the bullish move. So for gold, for today will be bearish. Overall for this week, should be looking out for buying opportunity on gold. So gold bullish for this week, bearish for today. Just like most of the index, index has actually been enjoying a strong bullish move in the last couple of weeks, and the bullish move is still expected to continue also this week, especially with the positive sentiment around the US stimulus bill. But for now, I expect the US30 to try to find a support, especially on the 1-hour time frame. So once it's able to get a support, then it should push higher from around that support. So I expect it to look for a support, get the support, and then push higher from that support. But for now, you should trade a bit lower for this moment before continuing the bullish run. For this week, so US thirty bullish for this week. But for now, we should still expect the instrument to retrace a bit before pushing higher. So the next stop will be on US hundred. So just like my view on other index, I still expect it also to be bullish overall for this week. But just as I was able to inform us on US30, uh, yeah, so the same thing is also expected on US100. So retracement around this level to retest this resistance, especially on around this price level. So I expect it to get to around this price level before trading bullish. So US100 should retrace a bit to around that price level, that's 11,817.25, before continuing the bullish move. So we can just wait before we buy. Don't buy yet, just wait for it to retrace a bit to give you better entry points for a buy position on this instruments. Yeah, okay, so we would notice The retracement has already taken place on D30. So D30 has actually had the retracement I'm expecting on US30 as well as on US100. It's already creating opportunity for us to have a buy trade on this instrument. So right away, I think we can actually have a buy on D30 because it has actually had the retracement I'm expecting on US100 as well as The US30. So all of them, I'm still bullish for the week. And this one has had the retracement, so you should start buying from around this moving average which is currently trading around. Okay, and then for the week, we should be looking at a take profit around this untested resistance, which is at about price level 13,369.6. So D30 should be able to trade as high as 13,369.6 for this week. So the next stop would be on oil. We see oil gapping down earlier in the early hours of today, and that could be basically attributed to the sentiments around the second round of lockdown around the world due to the outbreak of coronavirus. Some countries especially in Europe, especially in Europe, further dampening sentiment that the economy would have fully recovered by the second quarter or by the second half of this year. Of course, during the peak of the first round of coronavirus, analysts were of the opinion that by the second half of 2020, consumption should have fully recovered. And then, um, OPEC supply cuts as well as, um, further reduction in oil production from the United States would have been a very strong boost for oil markets. But from what we are seeing on the chart, we would see that even though the instrument is trying to push as high as possible, the sentiment around the world With respect to coronavirus, it's not really giving a lot of momentum to this instrument. So the instrument might still, especially for today, might still continue, might still trade a bit bearish. Because if you look at it on the daily charts, you will see that oil has been trading between price level $43.62 and around price level 39.22. So it has been between 43.59 and 39.22, around that price region. So for this week too, I expect it to still trade within this bound, especially if we are not able to get some concrete information with respect to the vaccine for coronavirus, which might help push demand for oil to the upside. So oil should still trade narrowly between $43.55 and $39.31 for this week. Okay, so for euro pound, if there is instrument with a very clear move for this week. One of them will be EURGBP because I'm looking at this instrument on the 4-hour time frame. You would see that this current retest on this support will be the 3rd time in recent time on this instrument. And in the last 2 other periods that EURGBP has tested this support, it has failed to go below that support. Showing to us that the name verified support that is being displayed by this indicator is not just a name; it is as a result of the strong support that this price level has actually been to euro pound. So owing to this very strong support on this instrument, so it's an instrument that is even very safe for us to have a buy trade right away on, and we should be looking at a big profit around this verified resistance, especially for today. That's 0.91499. For today, you should be looking at taking profit around that price level. And then overall for the week, you should be expecting the instrument to go above this verified resistance as a result of the Brexit sentiments weighing on the British pound. So the British pound is expected to be weakened as we look forward to further negotiation between the Eurozone as well as Britain. So euro GBP buy for this week, and you can buy right away. Okay, so looking at, um, USD/CAD. So I'm expecting USD/CAD to trade higher for this week. Looks like— looking as if the bearish momentum on this instrument is exhausted, especially if the candle for today on the daily chart is able to close bullish. If today's candle is able to close bullish, then USD/CAD will be a very strong buy for this week. And we can also see that oil, the major export product for Canada, is not also doing so fine at this moment. So the Canadian dollar might not be able to get extra strength from oil for this week. So USD/CAD, a buy for this week, especially if the instrument is able to close bullish for today. So that's it, closes bullish today. It is very safe for us to have a buy trade on USD/CAD for this week. Um, so at this time, if you have any question, let me check if there is any instruments, um, someone has dropped for us to look at. Okay, someone says, um, GBP/USD. We have checked, um, D30, Mr. Wisdom. Someone said oil and GU. Yes, we have looked at oil, and then we have— so we are going to check, uh, GBP/USD now. So someone is also asking of EUR/JPY. Let me see if there's another question. Okay, gold. Yeah, we've checked gold, checked gold. So I expect gold for today to trade bearish even though the overall sentiment on gold still remains bullish. And we've checked D30. I said D30 would retrace slightly before continuing the bullish move. So D30 for this week is bullish. but you still trade slightly bearish for this moment before continuing, uh, the bullish move. Okay, let me open GU. Let me put the chart of GU. Which one timeframe are you looking at, sir? Uh, mostly daily charts as well as, um, 4 hours. Mostly daily charts as well as 4 hours. Someone said NZD/USD. So NZD/USD and AUD/USD is expected to trade, um, similarly for, for today especially. People's Bank of China are looking at further weakening the yuan, and that is expected to weigh on New Zealand dollar as well as Australian dollar for today, especially before the instrument can then look out for continuing the bullish move on the two. So NZD/USD as well as AUD/USD bearish for today before maybe tomorrow it can recover some of the lost ground in this session today. But for today Should not buy NZD/USD nor AUD/USD. UK 100, please. I need to verify some resistance in the book on your chart. Can you please provide the link? Uh, good morning. So I'll try to still open as many of these instruments as possible. Someone said UK 100. Ah, because Mr. Ray, because index generally moves, um, in similar ways, but I'm still going to check UK 100. So I will see if the chart is a bit peculiar from that index we checked. Okay, so for the person that requested for UK100, so UK100 has been trading somehow to the downside in the last couple of months. I think since around June, it has been trading somewhat to the downside because since around this price level, That's around 6504.7. You see that it has not been able to make that high and has been gradually forming lower high as well as lower low, and is currently on the upper channel of this trend line. So I expect UK 100 to still continue to obey this channel in as much as today's candle is not able to close outside of this channel. So if UK 100 is able to close outside of this channel, then I will be looking out for a new direction on it. But in as much as it's still trading within this channel, then, uh, to be looking out for sell opportunity on UK 100 for this week would be the best bet. So looking out for sell opportunity on UK 100 would be the best bet. So that shows that there are some things that are peculiar to UK out of The index class. So in as much as it doesn't trade outside of 6,025, 6,025, in as much as UK 100 does not trade outside of that range, you should not buy UK 100. Yeah, so currently looking at the formation, this is on the hourly charts. On Great Britain pounds against the United States dollar, so a sell on GBPUSD for today or for now will not be a bad idea. So we can still sell GU to around this support. The support is around 1,000 1.29866, but the best bet will be for us to wait until it retests this support before it continues the bullish move. So it's expected to retest this price level, that's 1.29879, before continuing the bullish move. So if you can wait for it to retest, beautiful. Just wait for it to retest that region before it continues the bullish move. So every instrument is expected to, uh, floor the dollar for this week generally due to the expected weakness in the greenback. Okay, someone is still requesting for W20. Well, I hope I'll be able to check that, but let's look at, um, I think USD/CAD. We have checked USD/CAD. Let me see if I'll be able to check W20. That's, um, the Polish index. With the way this index decides to leave these 2 candles, um, this far away From others, what we should be looking out for on W20 is just a retest on this support before it pushes up. So W20 might push down to around this support before pushing up. I expect it to push up for this week eventually, but should we test this support before continuing or before pushing up? But should push up eventually for this week. Should push up eventually for this week. For today, a retest around this support region will be in view, and it's very close to that support now. So just a retest before it continues to push. Ah yeah, so Mr. Obishi is asking that, so does it mean the USD will be weak this week? Yeah, it's likely. It's likely we'll be having a very weak pullback. This week as, um, the possibility of fresh stimulus looks brighter and brighter daily. So most likely the dollar will be weak for this week. Okay, and finally I will check EUR/JPY. Although someone is requesting for USD/South African rand, well, I'm not so vast with South African rand, so I will not be able to check that except maybe just technically. But let's check EUR/JPY and then Maybe USD/ZAR, that's the South African rand, and then call it a day. Okay, someone says I should call the support region as we might not— is it for W20, Mr. Wisdom? Is it for W20? So I just give you the price level. Uh, so if it's for W20, we should be looking at 1674. So W20 should retest 1674 before pushing up. Should be test 1674. That's where we have the support on W20. And we checked GU. Okay, is this support also on GU that Mr. Oluseyi is requesting for? Okay, okay, okay. As regards to all that is moving forward, okay, yeah. So it's 1674, that's around The support that W20 should retest. Okay, for the person that requested for Euro JPY, so Euro JPY is still obeying this channel on the 4-hour chart. So I expect it to just test this channel before continuing the bullish move. So EUR/JPY will just trade slightly lower to around this trend line and then continue the bullish move. So EUR/JPY for this week still retain a bullish direction. So you should be looking out for opportunity to buy EUR/JPY for this week overall. Okay, so this is USD/South African Rand as requested. by one of us. So let's just wait for this particular candle to close. If this particular candle is able to close this way, if it's able to close this way, then USD/South African rand for today will likely be a buy. And if you check the instruments in the last few weeks, it has only been able to trade between this price level, that's 16.7179 And slightly below the supports, but returned back to around 16.3919. So you should still continue to look out for its trading within this range. That's 16.3935 as well as 16.7162. That's that's still the current bound for USD South Africa Rand, and that's around that's the bound. should still be looking out for, for this week. You should still trade within that bound except there is a major fundamental from South Africa which I am not aware of. Just as I said, I am not very familiar with the South African rand. Okay, so Mr. Temidayo is asking that, uh, do I advise that they should scan for trade opportunities on all currencies? or they should stick to some major pairs? Well, this decision actually depends on you, Mr. Christopher, but I would generally advise that you should try as much as possible to focus on the major currencies. The major currencies because the spread generally is lower and you have access to a lot of information on the major pairs. And out of the major pairs, it is also good to Identify the one that, uh, you are very good at when it comes to analysis, then focus on the one you are better at. That way you'll be able to record better success in the market, which would really help every one of us. Okay, okay. Someone said, yeah, Mr.— is it Mr. Young? Yeah, you did not miss the opportunity. It's very fine that you were— you didn't even sell the instruments as at that time. because it's still expected to push up. What just happened there was a slight retracement, which we expect across all the index for the moment. So once they retrace to locate the support, from that support they will continue to push higher. So it is at this point I would appreciate everyone for being a part of today's, uh, Monday's market review. So I believe we had a very enlightening moment during the whole session. I want to appreciate every one of us. Thank you very much for being a part of today's edition. So we look forward to having you around once again next week Monday at the same time, that's by 10 AM. So thank you very much. Do have a very profitable day and let us make some pips from the market. Thank you.