Market Review 9th November - 13th November 2020

Good morning, good morning, good morning to everyone. So if you can hear me, let me get our yes in the box, in the chat box. If you can hear me, let me get the yes from us. Okay, so that is good, that's good. Let's quickly start with Forex Part 3 this morning. So I Okay, so we have a rundown of the major activity for this week, but it's no longer news that former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden was able to prevail over incumbent President Donald Trump in last week's presidential election in the United States. So that is still a major factor that will dominate sentiments for this week. But let's have a rundown of other major economic events expected for this week. So by 10:25, that's in the next 19 minutes, we'll be expecting the President of the European Central Bank in the person of Christine Lagarde to speak at a video conference at the Green Horizon Summit. That's by 10:25. And anytime she speaks, we expect some volatility on the European. So we should look out for a statement by 10:25 this morning. And by 11:35, that's a couple of minutes after the speech by the European Central Bank's president, uh, the Bank of England governor, that's in the person of Andrew will also speak at the same summit. That's, um, the Horizon Summit, uh, by 11:35 later today. So for those of us that trade the pound pair and those of us that might also be considering having trades on the euro pair, you should try as much as possible to be on the lookout for these 2 speeches, uh, later today. Um, on Tuesday, which is tomorrow, there is no major economic activity. So sentiment will basically be dominated by how investors are able to digest the presidential election in the United States and the expected impact of the presidential election on trade as well as on relationships among nations of the world. Then we move to Wednesday. Wednesday by 2 AM should be the time of, um, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, starting with the official cash rate, the Reserve Bank monetary policy statement, their rate statement, and then by 3:00 AM, we'll be having the press conference by the governor of the bank that will be explaining to us the reason behind whatever decision the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to take on Wednesday. At their last policy meeting, the bank decided to keep their official cash rate, that's the OCR, at 0.25%, just as we were expecting. So they were just able to keep their rate constant at the last meeting. Also, this meeting on Wednesday, we're also expecting them to keep rate constant. Yeah, we are expecting them to still keep rates constant and then to also continue with the $100 billion asset purchase program of the bank. So we'll be looking out for more information with respect to the asset purchase program of the bank on Wednesday by 2 AM. And then the speech by the governor of the bank also give us a better clue as to the direction of the New Zealand dollar. for the week. But we should also keep in mind that with the victory of Biden in the United States, we expect trade disputes to reduce around the world because we do not expect him to continue in the trend of President Donald Trump, who has actually been on the forefront of trade wars with some countries around the world. So with better trade agreements, we expect currencies like the New Zealand dollar as well as the Australian dollar, which are commodity-supported currencies, to benefit from the victory of Biden in the United States. Okay, so, um, there is going to be a bank holiday in France on Wednesday, bank holiday also in Canada, as well as a bank holiday in the United States. And whenever there is bank holiday, we expect a thin liquidity from countries where the banks will be on holiday. But is it everyone that cannot hear me? I'm seeing no sound, no sound, no sound. Is everyone that cannot hear me? If you cannot hear me, let me— is everyone that can't hear me, or just these few that said they cannot hear me? See everyone. Can anyone hear me? Yes, uh, he said he can hear me. Yeah, okay, so that's fine. So that means those that can't hear me, they should check, um, their audio settings, the audio settings of their device. Okay, that's good since, uh, majority of us can hear me. Okay, so that's, that's great. Um, then on Thursday to be the turn of prelim GDP quarter by quarter from, from Britain. Yes, from Britain by 8 AM. So this GDP is not expected to have a decline like what we had the last time. It came out at 19.8% to the negative, the last release. But this time around, even if the GDP is not able to meet up with the expectation of a growth of 15%, 6%, it should still be better than the previous, which was, uh, -19.8%, a decline in GDP in Britain. Then by 9 AM, the Bank of England governor will also speak, and we expect a lot of volatility in the market as at the time he will be speaking by 9 AM. Thursday. Then by 2:30 PM on Thursday, to be the turn of CPI and core CPI month by month from the United States. So this is a major measure of inflation in the United States. The last time, uh, okay, let me quickly admit people are waiting. or just a few of us? Is everyone that the sound is breaking at our end? Okay, so no, no, no, it's not general. Okay, so that means the network is from your side, the break in sound is from your own end if there is any break in sound. Okay, and because the CPI and core CPI will be released at the same time, the core CPI is Believed to be a better measure of inflation because it is less volatile compared to the CPI. So we'll pay more attention to the core CPI month by month compared to the CPI month by month by 2:30 PM on Thursday. And at the same time, we're also expecting unemployment claims from the United States. The last time, 751,000 individuals filed for jobless insurance in the United States. But for this week, they are expecting 745,000 individuals to put in for the jobless insurance in the United States. By 5:45 PM, it will be a number of speeches by the head of central banks. The European Central Bank president will lead the line. That's Christine Lagarde. Then the Bank of England Governor Bailey as well as Jerome Powell at the ECB Central Banking Forum that will be holding on that Thursday. So it's— we are expecting a lot of volatility in the market on EUR/PSD, the pound, as well as the USD/JPY by that— around that time. So Christine Lagarde starts, then Bailey follows, to be rounded up by Jerome Powell around the same time. So we need to pay attention to around 5:45 PM on Thursday for some clue as to the direction of some of the instruments to be trading in the market. And on Friday, to round off the week, we have the Producer Price Index, the core PPI, as well as the PPI month by month. And because we're having core PPI and then PPI at the same time, core cores of PPI or CPIs are more accurate, give us more accurate insights into inflation compared to the flat PPI. So we pay more attention to the core PPI on Friday compared to the PPI month by month. And by 4 PM, it will be the turn of preliminary UOM consumer sentiment from the United States, and then we round off the week by checking the BOE, um, the speech by the Bank of England governor. But that's by 5 PM on Friday. So today we are expecting the new president or the president-elect of the United States to introduce his 12-member committee to be able to look at what they can do to control the outbreak of coronavirus in the United States. If we look at the way President Trump has actually managed this virus, President Trump is someone that is somehow not so fearful of the virus. He sees the virus as just a normal virus. But Biden, on the other hand, feels there's a way he could have managed the coronavirus pandemic better than the way he did. So we should be looking at a bit of a difference in approach. from the way President Trump was able to manage the coronavirus compared to the way the president-elect is going to do the same. So at this time, it will be the turn of the chat. So I turn to the chat so we have a rundown of what we're expecting on some of the instruments we trade for this week. But if you have any question, we can quickly drop our questions in the chat box. So that I look at that before we move to the charts for the week. Any question? Any question up until this point? You can drop your question. Okay, Mr. Pedro is saying he can't hear me. Then that would be from your end. You need to connect with your audio device. I got a question here from Mr. Ola. He said, um, can he have access to the support and resistance indicator for his mobile phone? Also, external indicators are not available for mobile. So mobile, we have to restrict ourselves to using the indicators that are part of the setup on the mobile MT4. So we don't have the opportunity to add external indicators to the mobile phone. Okay, so Mr. Cheese is asking that how can he use the Forex Factory to analyze the markets? That's basically what we have just done. We have checked the major economic events expected for this week and how we can plan our minds ahead of those economic events. So Soft Mind Digital, um, is requesting for the indicator for his system. Okay, so you can just send the email to feedback@rally.academy, then you'll be able to have access to the indicator. feedback@rally.academy to get in touch with you if you have a need for the support and resistance indicator. So I'm seeing a number of persons in the waiting room. Let me quickly admit them before we start checking the technical setup for the week. I'm so checking the Australian dollar against the US dollar on the daily charts. So would notice that this instrument was able to close successfully above a key resistance that was on Thursday last week, and there was a retest on that resistance-turned-support on Friday, and we would also notice that this instrument is currently surging higher. And from the victory in the United States for Joe Biden, we're expecting commodity-supported currencies like the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar to benefit because he's not expected to continue in trade tensions with China and some other countries. as Donald Trump has been doing the last 4 years. So currencies that are supported, that are commodity supported, should be able to benefit from this victory. So I expect the Australian dollar against the US dollar to continue the bullish move, especially this week. So we should be looking at some of this proven resistance as take profits for this week on this instrument. So looking at the price level Okay. Okay, so for— just as I said earlier, we are looking at a bullish move on commodity-supported Aussie against the dollar for this week, and the take profits before this proven resistance around 0.74004 will be the targets for this week. So a buy trade on Australian dollar will be a good one. And if you check on the 4 hours, you see that, um, the instrument is currently retesting this resistance, which is giving us a very good room to have a buy trade on this instrument. In as much as this current candle does not close below this resistance on the 4 hours chart, in as much as it doesn't, it's going to give us a good room to have a buy trade on this instrument. For USD/JPY, looking at this instrument, this instrument has been on a downtrend for a couple of weeks now, and on Friday the instrument closed bearish, and then the candle for yesterday too was slightly bearish, and this morning, which is today, we are having a very strong bullish candle on the USD/JPY pair. So we just have to wait for the close of today's candle. If today's candle is able to close as it is at this point in time, then the USD/JPY pair will likely end bullish for this week, especially if the candle for today is able to close as it is now or even higher the point where it is at this point in time. So if today's candle is able to close bullish, that is higher than yesterday's candle, then we'll be looking at a bearish move on USD/JPY for this week with our take profit at around this resistance. Let me get the price level for us. We'll be looking at around 104.186. for this week in our small charts. The current candle for today is able to close bullish. Once it closes bullish, then we are looking at a buy trade for this week and the take profits at around 104.186. There is a lot of optimism in the stock market based on the victory of, uh, Biden in the United States. So the optimism, we can notice that on all the index, with most of them gapping up today. But checking US 500 on the daily chart would discover that this instrument is very, very close to the all-time high, which at around 3580. That's around the all-time high, which is— which also coincides with a resistance on this instrument. So 3580.2 is the all-time high on this instrument, and the instrument is trading very, very close to that price level. And based on what happened on the instruments the last time it got to around that price level, so we can have a sell limit at around this price level, that's 3576. You can have a sell limit at 3576 ahead of the instrument trading to that price level where we'll be expecting some retracement of that resistance. So, but for now, we still continue to buy S&P 500 up until around 3576, which is very, very close to the resistance and the highest point the instrument got to in recent time. That's 3580.2 is the highest price, but we have our sell limits at 3547. 3547 for our sell limits on the instrument because we expect the instrument to retrace slightly From around that resistance. So for EUR/USD, EUR/USD has enjoyed some bullish run in the last couple of days, especially last week. We had some bullish run on this instrument last week, but if today's candle is able to close below this resistance If today's candle is able to close below the resistance on this daily chart, which means which will be which means that we will be looking out at an opportunity to sell euro USD if and only if it closes below this resistance. So if it closes below 1.18673 today, if euro USD is able to close below 1.18673 today, then we expect euro USD to. Be a sell for the week because as the dust of the election settles, um, the greenback is expected to regain some of the lost ground in the last couple of weeks, um, to— in the last couple of days to, um, the election. So if it's able to close below 1.187— 1.18639, around that price region, then EUR/USD is going to be a sell trade for this week and with a take profit target of 1.16164. The sell is based on, um, the proposition that it's able to close below 1.186394, something around that price. If it's able to close within that range, then we expect EUR/USD to sell for this week. But if it doesn't, which means EUR/USD close above this resistance today That means the bullish run will continue on this instrument, and then we'll be looking at a target very close to this resistance at around 1.19743. So today's closure on the daily chart is very instrumental to the direction of EUR/USD for this week. Close below the resistance, we are looking at a sell for this week. But doesn't close below the resistance which would have been a support at that time, then we'll be looking at a buy trade on EUR/USD for this week. For gold, with the return of the second phase of lockdown around the world, especially in some countries like England, Germany, France, and Australia— although the lockdown in Australia is gradually being lifted— so with lockdown around the world, so we expect the lockdown to still favor the price of gold for now. So a bullish move on gold will not be a bad one for this week. Even as at this point, you just need to allow this current bearish candle to retest this moving average. So after the retest on this moving average from this morning, which means you can even have a A buy limit at around 1954.54 on gold for today. 1954.54, a buy limit around that price for today. So gold for this week, uh, bullish in as much as we do not get a very concrete, um, vaccine for coronavirus, and countries continue to shut down and then restrict businesses. So we still continue to see gold pushing higher as a result of that. So coronavirus weighing on gold will likely push gold prices higher for this week. So basically, we'll be looking at buying opportunities on gold for this week. So US 100 is also very similar to what we had on US 500, trading pretty close to an untested resistance from where the last time we got there we had some very sharp retracements of that resistance. We had some very sharp retracements of that resistance. So despite the optimism from the elections We should still be looking at having some similar reaction around the same region where US100 is currently trading. So a sell trade on US100 for this week will not be a bad move, especially if it's not able to close above 12,472.48. Failure for US100 to close above 12,472.48 today means that you should be looking out for sell opportunity on US100 for this week. Okay, so checking D30 on the 4-hour time frame. So, um, the instrument gapped up just as we have seen on other index around the world, which is a very smooth momentum on the instrument. But I even checked DE30 on the monthly charts, and the view on the monthly chart is still looking very bullish generally on the instrument because if you look at it on the monthly chart, last month we had a bearish candle, and then at the inception of this month, the instrument gapped down, and currently it has covered above 50% of last month's bearish candle. If this instrument is able to close this way for this month, so we are looking at a longer-term buy on D30, a longer-term buy on D30 if this is able to close this way and then next month is able to close above this month's candle. But that one is a very— a longer-term trick. But for this week, checking the instruments on the 4-hour time frame, we have This current candle struggling with a support which was previously a resistance, and this current candle will give us a very good clue as to what we are expected to do on D30 for this week. Despite the optimism, if this current candle is able to close below this resistance, which is currently support based on where price is trading, so a close below. This supports at around 12674. 12674. A close below 12674 would give us a very clear host for a sell trade on D30. But in as much as D30 does not close below that price region, then it will be a very safe one to have a buy trade. But we should watch closely the close of this current candle. It closed below 12674. Means we should be looking at selling the thirty for this week. Well, even though the bearish. pressure on oil is not yet over. Lockdown from coronavirus is currently weighing on the commodity, supporting a glut in the market, which means price of oil might still continue to fall. And with the expectation of investors that Biden might be someone who goes more for renewable energy compared to fossil fuels like oil, that might also still further pressure this commodity towards the downside. So for oil, we need to watch closely this resistance, I think on the H4. Let me check clearly. Okay, so checking oil, just as I told us, that it's currently very close to resistance. There is a resistance around this price level that's about 40.60. So if oil is able to close above 40 points— so if it's able to close above 40.60, then we might be looking at a bullish move on oil. But basically, based on the view of analysts on Biden, we should be looking at a sell sentiment on oil overall, and then coupled with the coronavirus lockdown, that should still further weigh on oil generally. But if it's able to close above 40.60, then we might, we might consider a buy trade on oil. For this week, bearish pressure on USD/CAD is expected to continue for this week. That's been on a smooth sell for a couple of days now, and this is expected to continue because the instruments on Okay, so the instrument is currently hovering around a support on this, um, 4 hours time frame. So a close below this support will give us a very clear coast on USD/CAD for a sell. A sell on USD/CAD will be on the card for this week. So a sell at around price level 1.29941, because as at 1.29941, it will mean that USD/CAD has been able to close below the untested support we have on the 4-hour time frame because the instrument has been able to break the previous low. This was the low we previously had on USD/CAD, and then last week Friday, the instrument was able to go lower than the previous low on the instrument. So a sell trade USD/CAD for this week will be a good trade. For pound against the United States dollar, um, the current candle on the 4-hour time frame is looking like a bearish engulfing, especially if this candle is able to close this way because it would have successfully engulfed 1, 2, 3 previous bullish candles on the 4-hour time frame. So if it's able to close this way and further below this support where it is currently trading So close at around 1.31280, we further confirm a bearish move on GBP/USD for this week. So GU for this week should be looking at a sell for the week based on the Brexit sentiments weighing on the pound because it's not looking as if United Kingdom will be able to get a deal from the Brexit negotiation. They have up until October— November 15th to be able to agree on a deal, and if not, then there is going to be a no-deal Brexit, and that is expected to further weigh on the pound. So a sell trade on GBP/USD would be a sound trade for the week, especially if the instrument is able to close below 1.31293. So this current 4 hours candle closed below 1.31293. It goes to be very clear for a sell trade pound against the dollar. Just like most of the other index we have checked. Um, US— UK 100 is also very close to a resistance, and every single time UK 100 specifically has been getting to resistance, we've been seeing some very sharp retracement of that— of the resistance because it has actually been on a downtrend for a couple of weeks now. I was checking UK100 since around the 16th of June. You see that it has been making a series of lower lows since, um, the 16th of July. So with that in mind, um, it will not be a bad one if one is able to consider a sell trade on UK100. And considering the fact That is very is very close to a weak resistance on the daily chart, and the last time it got to that same resistance, UK 100 fell sharply from that resistance. So a repeat of that around the resistance would likely be on the card for this instrument. And with the fresh restriction also in the United Kingdom. that is what I expected to weigh on this index. So generally the momentum is looking bearish on UK100. If there is one instrument that has a very clear direction for a couple of weeks, it has been USD/South African rand, because I think someone asked me about this instrument the last time. So for USD/South African rand, the coast is very clear for a sell trade. So it's very obvious The instrument was able to close below this support that was on Wednesday last week. So, and since it closed below the support, that's just been rushing to the downside. So a sell trade USD/South Africa rand for this week is on the card, on the card for this week. Someone said GBP/AUD. Once I'm done with the instrument I have opened, then I might consider some of the instruments we'll be making requests for. So for EUR/JPY, EUR/JPY is currently struggling with this verified resistance on the 4-hour timeframe. The resistance is a very strong one because it was previously support to price around this price level. And at this point, it's a very key resistance to EUR/JPY. So we should not have a buy trade yet. We should wait for EUR/JPY until it's able to get to around 123.208. So we can have a buy stop at 123.208, a buy stop at 123.208. Then from there we can target this weak resistance for this week. That's at 124.151, 124.151, but a buy stop at 123.216 and I take profits around 124.065 or around that price region. So commodity-supported currencies like the New Zealand dollar is envisaged to be further boosted this week by the election of Joe Biden in the United States. So a buy trade on NZD/USD, AUD/USD will be on the card for this week, and especially if NZD/USD is not able to close below this current support that's at around price level 0.67 947. Even though I'm expecting a retest at around that price level, but I'm not expecting the instrument to close below that, uh, region. So in as much as it doesn't, then NZD/USD for the week is looking more bullish. So I'm more bullish on NZD/USD and AUD/USD for the week. There is a mild rejection around this price level on USD/CHF, a mild reaction, a rejection at 0.89 829. There's a rejection around that price level, and that rejection is what is currently pushing the price of, um, USD/CHF to the upside. But we can consider having a buy trade if and only if USD/CHF is able to trade to around 0.90133 today. If USD/CHF is able to trade to 0.90133 today then we might be looking at a buy trade on USD/CHF, even though I am more to, um, the bearish side on this instrument because I expect the instrument to eventually go lower than, uh, the force preventing it from pushing lower around this 0.89799. I expect the instrument to go lower than that price level and then continue the bearish run. So I'm more bearish on USD/CHF for this week. So USD/CHF, let's look for sell opportunities on it in as much as it doesn't close above 0.90133. 0.90133 is very crucial on this instrument. Okay, we checked gold earlier, so I can close gold. We checked US30. Also earlier. So let me quickly go to the chat now and take our questions. Okay, so US30. So have we not taken US30? I thought we are. Oh, let me quickly open the US30 chart. Another instrument, someone says GBP/AUD. GBP/AUD also, I think we checked. So for pound against the Australian dollar, pound against the Australian dollar, I expect the Australian dollar to have an upper hand against the pound for this week owing to the Brexit negotiation and a seemingly non-successful outcome from the negotiation, because I'm not expecting them to be able to strike a deal with the European Union. And as much as UK is not able to strike a deal with the European Union we expect the pound to, um, lose some strength. And if that eventually happens, that means you should be looking out for a sell trade on pound against the United States— against the Australian dollar, because the Australian dollar is a commodity-supported currency and is expected to benefit from reduced trade tension and better trade agreements between nations and among nations of the world. So in as much as, um, pound Australian dollar is able to get to around this price, that's 1.179617, 1.79617 for this week, then we'll be looking at a sell trade from around that price. And our first take profit will be before the next verified support, which is around 1.1784 1.78490, but we can only sell if the instrument is able to trade as low as 1.79542 or around that price level. So if it's able to trade lower to that point, then you can have a sell trade on pound Australian dollar. Overall, I'm looking at a bearish move on this instrument for this week. So we also have US30. So US30 is also looking very similar to the other index. The only difference is that it's still a bit far away from the all-time high on the instruments, but it's trading very close to verified resistance also on the daily chart. So we should, uh, be looking out for some retracement of that resistance, retracement of that resistance. So sell limits at, um, 28952, uh, will be, um, in order on this instrument. Sell limits 28923, that's overall for the week. But we can still buy up to around this price level. So 28923, you should be expecting some retracement from around that price level on the instrument. AUD/CAD. Um, okay, for Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar, there are 2 commodity-supported currencies, so there's going to be a lot of struggle On that, um, soup here. There are commodity supporters. Someone said I should go over the oil. Um, so for oil, the bearish, uh, momentum on oils looks very strong. So we can only buy oil if and only if oil is able to close above 40.68. That's when we can buy oil. In as much as oil does not close above 82.68, it's better we are on the sell trade on oil owing to the current sentiment around the world on this commodity, because it is looking more bearish generally than being bullish. So I'm more bearish on oil for this week. Okay, so it seems, uh, let me just check Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar, then we can call it a day from that point. Do you have any other question? You can quickly ask our question. You have any question? You have any question? Any question? Any question? Any question? Any question? Any question? Any question? Gold, sir. Thanks for the oil. And so for gold, we are looking at gold being bullish for this week because of the lockdown supporting the safe haven metal known as gold. Uh, for Mr. Batunde saying that he needs the support and resistance indicator, you can just send an email to feedback@rally.academy. Also, is there any way I can learn more on setting stop loss and then take profits? And then Mr. Wilfred requested that we should send the trade alerts to the Telegram app, that it will be faster. All right, but I guess you usually receive the trade alerts on your email. I guess you do receive it on your email. Or even though we are going to work on making it readily available on the Telegram app so that you can also have access to it as fast as possible. So for Mr. Olufemi, it's good to have your TP on a buy trade before a resistance, and when you're on a sell trade, your take profit should be before the support. So that's the best way to have your take profit. And for your stop loss, when you are on a sell trade Your stop loss should be above the resistance when you're on a sell trade, or recent high on the instrument, or a recent high on the instrument when you're on a sell trade. And when you're on a buy trade, your stop loss should be below the support or below the recent low on this, the instrument. Okay, so for Mr. Alushegun, he said he doesn't receive the trade alert on his email. You might check other folders in your mail, the trade alerts will definitely be there in as much as you have been able to fund your account. Let's say in the last, um, anytime before last month, in as much as you have been able to fund your accounts as at that time. So you should be able to get the trade alerts in your email. I would also work on making it more available to us on the Telegram chat or the Telegram channel so that we'll all be able to utilize the trade a lot. So thank you very much everyone for being a part of today's market overview. So we look forward to having us all around same time next week Monday. So I wish us a very profitable week ahead. So thank you very much and let's all stay safe. Thank you. Thank you.