In this solo market commentary, Rally Academy analyst Simon Alagbe examines the USD/CAD pair on the hourly chart, identifying a nascent up‑trend that formed after a sharp decline from May 7‑11, 2020. He draws a trend line from the recent low to a new high and explains that a retest of this line will determine whether the trend holds. Alagbe outlines two pending‑order strategies: a buy‑stop at 1.40904 with a take‑profit (TP) at 1.41644 and a stop‑loss (SL) at 1.39397, and a sell‑stop at 1.39686 with TP at 1.39158 and SL at 1.40904. He stresses waiting for a breakout from a defined price‑range before entering either side. The commentary then shifts to fundamentals, noting that the day’s key USD‑related releases are the core PPI and PPI (both at 1:30 PM GMT) and, most importantly, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 2 PM GMT. Alagbe explains how a stronger greenback (bullish USD) would push USD/CAD higher, while a dovish tone would depress it, linking these outcomes to his trade setups. The overall message is a cautious, opportunity‑focused call to trade USD/CAD using the described technical levels and to monitor the upcoming economic data for confirmation.
Chapters
Good day, my name is Alagbe Simon, a market analyst with Rally Academy. Today, the 13th of May in the year 2020, we will be looking out for trading opportunity on USD/CAD. Observing this instrument on the hourly chart, we would see that from the 7th of May up to, um, the 11th of May. The instrument had a free fall and was stopped by this verified support. And right from this verified support, it has been trying to establish a new trend. So we had a high here, this is a low, then a new high. So based on this new trend, we're expecting this instrument to retest this trend line And then, in as much as it doesn't go below this trend line, then would be so sure of the establishment of a new trend. Let's so after the retest on this trend line, then we expect the trend line to act as a support and then push price higher. But will not be too safe for us to. Have the buy trade immediately this trend line acts as a support, because we have been able to also identify recently that this price range has restricted price from pushing higher. So we should wait until the instrument is able to push above this price range, somewhere around this region, and then from there we can have our TP target somewhere before this untested resistance on the hourly chart. And, um, for the other direction, if the instrument is able to go below the trend line, which means it has defeated the seemingly established trend, okay, somewhere below this region will show to us that what seemed to be a new trend has been destroyed, and we should be looking out to have a sell trade once that is done. Just as it was when we're looking out for buying opportunity, the same way we would not put in a sell trade immediately the instrument is able to go below this trend line. We also have to wait until this force acting around this price region is also defeated. So we should be having our sell trade around this price level and then have our TP— and should have our TP somewhere before this verified support. So we have 2 trading opportunities we are looking out for on this instrument. So we have our buy at this price level, and then we have our TP for the buy here. Then for the sell, we are looking out to sell around this price with our TP somewhere around this region. Also, and if you also examine these marked out points critically, we would see that until there is a breakout from this region, then one should not be looking out to have a trade on this instrument. And the points that we have marked out are beyond this marked out region. Shows to us that once this region is being broken, then a trading opportunity will be available to one to take advantage of. So you buy from this price level, then a sell from this price level with our marked out take profit targets also in place. So let's quickly, um, do justice to these 2 marked out points with our take profit accurately placed. So we move to the new order. The price at which you are looking out for the instrument— the instrument is yet to get to that point, so we would be utilizing our pending order. And, um, because we're expecting a continuation either side, so we would be taking advantage of the buy stop as well as the sell stop. So we start with the buy stop at this price level. 1.40904, and then we have our take profit at 1.41644, and our stop loss will be at the other side, which is the entry point of our sell trade, which is at 1.3939686. So we have this place, the buy trade. So the same way for the sell trade also. New order, pending order. Then we go for a sell stop at price level 1.39686, and our take profit will be before the support. Which is 1.39158, and our stop loss will be the entry point for the buy trade, 1.40904. So we place this trade also. So now let's also check, um, the fundamental, if there's any important economic data expected today. On this instrument. Okay, so this is, um, forexfactory.com, and today is the 13th of May. So we've had a series of economic data early in the day on some other instruments that is not directly related to USD/CAD, the one we are interested in trading. So for the, for the one directly related to our instrument, we are expecting a couple of economic data By 1:30 PM, we're expecting core PPI month by month as well as, um, the PPI month by month. So as a trader, you're expected to pay more attention to this core PPI data much more than the PPI data by 1:30 PM. And the most important one for today is the speech by Jerome Powell. That's by 2 PM, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank will be speaking about economic issues at a webinar organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. So later today by 2 PM, we're expecting this speech by the most important person when it comes to monetary policy in the United States. So a lot of questions will also be asked, and then at that, um, event, he is expected to also provide answers. Questions that are raised. So those questions, those answers will also have some impact on the USD/CAD because his speech will also either lend strength or weaken the greenback. When the greenback is strengthened, definitely USD/CAD will be bullish. And if the speech is dovish, then we should be looking out for a bearish USD/CAD. Around this time. So the point we have marked out will be a very good one for us to make some money off USD/CAD today. So let's take advantage of all this opportunity. Let's make some money off USD/CAD today. Thank you.
