In this Rally Academy Daily Market Analysis video recorded on May 22, 2020, market analyst Simon Alagbe provides a technical and fundamental outlook on the USD/CAD currency pair. He begins by reviewing the daily chart, noting that the pair is trading near a recent support zone (approximately 1.3864‑1.41896) and has shown bullish candles over the past two days, suggesting a potential retracement of that support. Moving to lower timeframes, Alagbe examines the 4‑hour and 1‑hour charts, identifying a confluence of resistance formed by a trend line and a horizontal resistance level on the 1‑hour chart. He proposes two pending trade setups: a bullish buy‑stop at 1.40283 with a take‑profit (TP) at 1.40494 if price breaks above the resistance and trend line, and a bearish sell‑stop at 1.399‑1.3928 with TP at 1.39669 if price fails to break the confluence and retraces. The analyst explains the rationale for each entry, the expected price movement, and the risk‑reward considerations. Finally, he reviews the fundamental backdrop, highlighting the upcoming Canadian Core Retail Sales release (forecast –4.8% at 1:30 PM), and suggests that a larger-than‑expected decline would weaken the CAD further, reinforcing the bullish scenario. The video concludes with a call to action to monitor the trade and capitalize on the anticipated move.
Chapters
Good morning, welcome to Rally Academy Daily Market Analysis. My name is Alagbe Simon, a market analyst with Rally Academy. This morning, the 22nd of May in the year 2020, we'll be looking out for trading opportunity on USD/CAD. This is USD/CAD on the daily chart, and just as it was pointed out by the last analysis that the instrument was currently trading around a support region and we should be expecting some retracement of that region. And in the last, um, 2 days has been the testimony to that. Yesterday and, um, currently this is, um, today's candle still trading bullish, which still confirms the analysis we had about 2 days ago on this instrument. Um, so looking at this instrument on a lower time frame so that we'll be able to pick our entry point for some bullish move, especially before this instrument is able to get to this resistance on the daily charts, because the instrument has been consolidating within this price region as 1.41896 and 1.38640 in the last couple of weeks. So we should still expect the consolidation to continue for a while pending some breakout of this region. So in line with that, let's pick our entry point for a buy on this instrument. Let's check, um, on the 4 hours also. Okay, so it's approaching what used to be, um, a support at this price region, was currently a resistance for it also before our time frame. So let's look at it on the 1-hour time frame. Okay, so this is the instrument on the 1-hour time frame, and here I can pick a trend line on this instrument. Okay, so I can pick that currently. I should also look out for the resistance. On this instrument. Okay, so around this region we have a confluence of resistance for, um, USD/CAD, this trend line. Well as this, um, resistance on the 1-hour chart. So before one would be able to pick a buy trade, the instrument should have successfully overcome this resistance as well as this trend line. And price region above that side, somewhere around this side, will be a very good entry point for a buy because at this point it would have been able to successfully overcome the resistance as well as the trend line. So you can have a buy at this price region and then target somewhere around this price region. The overall target on the buy would be this resistance on the 1-hour chart, but for today, let's just target this point for our take profit. So let's quickly place the trade so that we'll be able to take advantage of this opportunity once it breaks above both the resistance as well as, um, the trend line. And, um, another way, if the instrument fails to overcome both the trend line as well as the resistance, what we should be expecting is some retracement of these 2 confluence of resistance on the hourly chart. So the instrument would retrace if couldn't overcome this. And then we can have our sell trade below this current candle, somewhere around this price. And then we target some pips away from that region. So somewhere around this side too will be a very good point to have our take profit. So let's place a trade in line with these 2 directions, and, um, we should be able to take advantage of this opportunity and then make some money. Profit. So let's place the trade. Come to new order, and because the instrument is not currently trading at the true price level stated here, so we'll be going for a pending order. And then the type of trade for the buy will be a buy stop because we expect it to touch this price level and continue to trade higher until it gets to our take profit. So we go for a buy stop at price level 1.40283, and we have our take profit at 1.40— okay, 1.40494. 1.40494, that's our take profit for the buy trade. So place the trade and then also place the sell trade peradventure the confluence of this trend line as well as this resistance resist price and price could not overturn it, you should be expecting some retracement. And you can also make some money from that retracement from this confluence of resistance. We'll go for a new order also, the same pending order, but this time around a sell stop at price level 1.399 1.3928, and our take profit will be at 1.39669. So we place the trade and we await the movement on USD/CAD for us to make some money off it today. So let's also check on the fundamental front. Is there any major economic data that will be coming out that would affect movements on this instrument for today? Okay, so this is forexfactory.com, and then today by 1:30 PM we're expecting core retail sales data from Canada. If we check the forecast in comparison to the previous, it's already sending a signal, um, to traders. The previous was 0.0%, which means there was no growth, um, the last time Core Retail Sales data was released. Well, this time around they're expecting, or they're envisaging, there will be a decline, a decline to the tune of 4.8%. So if the decline is above 4.8%, let's assume, or let's say we have -5%, um, decline in Core Retail Sales, then Canadian dollar will become extremely weak and the bullish move we have envisaged on the instrument will even be stronger. So let's look out 1:30 PM and make some money also from USDcard. So thank you very much for listening. Let's make some money from USDcard today.
