Steve D. Valentine argues that buying a house at the end of 2023 / early 2024 can save buyers a large amount (he estimates roughly $40k–$50k) because sellers are more motivated, there is seasonal slowdown, and buyers have negotiation leverage despite higher interest rates. He gives a concrete recent example: a home listed at $395,000 negotiated to $385,000 plus $5,000 in closing costs (he frames this as the buyer receiving about $15,000 off). He contrasts this with a pre-COVID 2018 buyer who paid $200,000 and later refinanced to a ~2% mortgage after prices rose. The conclusion: price paid is permanent while rates change, so current buyer leverage can produce long-term savings if one plays the long game.
Questions this episode answers
January 12, 2024
About $40,000 (speaker also references saving up to $50,000 in the long run).
Listed at $395,000; negotiated to $385,000 plus $5,000 in closing costs (speaker frames this as the buyer getting about $15,000 off).
Bought for $200,000 in 2018 and later refinanced to about a 2% mortgage.
Chapters
There's probably a $40,000 spread in buying a house right now between buying one in 2023 and maybe buying one in mid 2024. So what do I mean by that? It's real simple. See, right now, at the end of 2023, number one is the holiday season. We're a little bit slower because the interest rates. Sellers are a little bit more motivated. You just have to find the right one. So, you know, right now you can go in and maybe negotiate on price and maybe some closing costs. And, you know, I'm talking 20 grand, you know, on the 4 to $500,000 price range and maybe less on a lower, maybe more on a higher. But it's still one of those pieces where you, the buyer, are a little bit more in the driver's seat than you were during COVID And if any of you remember that, you know, the sellers were completely driving the bus and the buyers just had to hang on for dear life and hope they had enough cash from their piggy bank to scrape up to have enough money to overbid on a house. And I'm not overpay. Overbid. Right. There's a difference. So and so here's what's going to happen is right now you might have some negotiation. Well, not. You might. You do have some negotiating power. Right. We just sold a house yesterday that's been on the market for, you know, 45 days. It was listed at 395. We finally get a contract on, and the seller's like, hey, let's try to make this work, because I don't want to lose the buyer. You know, we ended up negotiating from 395 to 385 and $5,000 in cost. Buyer got $15,000 off the price of the house and some closing costs included. Right. Now, one step further on that. During the inspection period, that buyer may be able to ask for a few more things because the buyers kind of know they got the sellers by the nuts. And so maybe they get a little bit more repairs in that deal because there's nobody fighting over that house. And the seller's a little bit more motivated to go ahead and go, hey, I want to go ahead and get rid of this. And if it cost me a couple thousand dollars, that's what I want to do. So it could be about a $20,000 swing. Now, if you take that same house and we go into mid 2024 and that house goes on the market at 410, because all of a sudden the rates are lower, there's more buyers in that medium price range and you know, there's multiple offers on and it gets bid up to 420. The spread is a lot different because the seller's probably not going to pay closing costs. They're not going to budge much on their price if you don't have to overbid on it. And they're probably not going to do a whole lot in repairs because there's a line of people potentially waiting for that same property. So if you buy in 2023 right now, even though your interest rate is higher, you have more power in the market and you potentially, for a long term play and, and a long term strategy, you are looking at potentially saving like 50 grand. Now, let's take this in perspective. Somebody that bought prior to Covid, right, We have no idea what's going to happen in 2024. But let's go back to prior to Covid. Somebody bought in 2018 and they got a great deal on something. They paid $200,000 for a house and they still had a 5% interest rate. And then all of a sudden, the price has shot through the roof. The house that they bought doubled in value over the next couple of years and they refinanced it and got a 2% mortgage because they bought when things were kind of average. And right now things are kind of average and they pushed through it and they were okay with it. So it's all about being at the right time at the right place. And right now, as a buyer, it is the right time in the right place because one thing you can never change is the price you pay for the house and negotiations you have the, the rates will always change. So just keep that in mind. If you're sitting on the sidelines, you have more power as a buyer at the end of 2023 and into the beginning of 2024 than you will going forward when the interest rates start to move.
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