Paul BarnhurstFP&A Expert Empowering Finance Professionals to Excel Everday

The future belongs to adaptive thinkers.

14 May 2026 · 0 min

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In this excerpt from Paul Barnhurst’s YouTube video “The future belongs to adaptive thinkers,” the speaker contrasts generative AI systems (such as chatbots) with machine‑learning models used for forecasting. He explains that generative AI is probabilistic, producing new and potentially inconsistent outputs each time it runs, which can lead to hallucinations or outright false statements (e.g., “ChatGPT lied to me”). In contrast, forecasting models are deterministic: given identical inputs they produce the same output, which fosters a higher level of trust for decision‑making. The speaker emphasizes that understanding this fundamental difference is crucial for assessing the reliability and appropriate use of AI technologies.

The distinction between generative AI and machine learning that is used in a forecast is very different because generative AI, probabilistic, can create something new every time in your chatbot, but the machine learning can be very determined. I mean, given the same inputs, you're running it through the algorithm, and that's the trust that people have around AI could be based on ChatGPT lied to me about something, and it's different if you're looking at a machine learning forecasting model, and I think that's an important distinction to make.