The World Is Safer Than Your Brain Thinks

Less violent death than our brains assume. It feels like the world is getting more violent. I understand it feels that way. But long term data from prio, UNODC and WHO tell a different story. Worldwide battle deaths fell from 24 per 100,000 people in in 1950 to around 2 per 100,000 in 2015. That's a drop of roughly 90 to 95%. Yes, I know we have situations in the Middle east, we have situations in Ukraine, but still it's dramatically lower no matter how you slice and dice the data. Global homicide rates also declined. UNODC reports a drop from 7.2 homicides. You know, your neighbor kills your neighbor or wife kills husband. Husband kills wife. 7.2 people per 100,000 in 1992. It fell to 6.1 by 2017, with many wealthy countries experiencing their lowest levels in decades. In this case the United States being one of them. Now, the world is far from peaceful and current conflicts are horrific. But compared with the 1960s and especially compared with earlier centuries, your odds of dying violently have fallen dramatically. I know it doesn't seem like that, but those are the stats. Okay, what's the real message here? Yes, you can see headlines about war in Ukraine and destruction in the Middle East. Death, death, death. The reality is you as a normal human being have never been safer from violent death than right now in 2025. Violent deaths from combat from murder are lower than they have ever been. That's something to be thankful for. Let's look at the data in a little more detail. This is an issue I do talk about a lot because fear sells. You don't have to look any further than New York City crime is lower than it's been in 30. It's dramatically lower than it's been in 30 years. By some metrics, violent crime is lower than it's been in 60 years. But, but that's not what the news report. Especially if you look at conservative outlets like the New York Post or, or Fox News Channel. Any one death is given so much media coverage to scare people because it helps political agendas. It helps certain political factions, say other political factions that control the cities are bad, evil, out of control, will destroy the world, therefore vote them out of office. And yet no one looks at the facts. You will never see a giant, giant, giant headline in the New York Post saying violent crime down for 10 straight years on average or violent crime dramatically lower than it was in 30 years ago in New York City. You won't see that headline. It's not going to sell because it doesn't create fear. Let's look more at the stats again. In 1950, there were 24 people dying in wars for every 100,000 people on the planet. By 2015, it had gone to two people. From 24 people to two people for every 100,000. That's huge progress. In general, there's been a 90 to 95% decline in people dying in wars. That's great news. Armed conflict is rare versus disease. Homicide now gone from 7.2% down to 6.1%. Be nice if that were better, but it's still headed in the right direction. Most countries are safer than in the 1970s. Violence is concentrated in more specific regions than it used to be. It used to be kind of everywhere. Now it's more concentrated. You therefore hear about it more because the TV cameras can go to that one spot. So when I hear people say, well, I'm thinking about having kids, but you know, you know, the world today, that's insanity. If you don't want to have children, don't have children. I'm not here to tell you. Elon Musk is telling. Everyone's got to have five children. No, if you don't want to have children, don't have children. But to use the rationale that somehow the world is worse than when you were a kid, you're lying to yourself. You're letting so many biases penetrate your brain, and it's completely irrational. Now everybody's irrational. Otherwise we wouldn't get married or take care of children or be nice to other people. Sometimes we don't know. It's nothing wrong with being irrational, but you need to recognize when you're being irrational. So, no, if you tell yourself you'd like to have kids, but the world's too dangerous or crazy or out of control, you're not being honest with yourself. Maybe you just don't want to have kids, and that's. That's okay.