TJ Walker predicts pundits will hate Obama's 2015 State of the Union while voters like it. He explains why these speeches become long, unfocused lists instead of coherent arguments, and asks whether Obama can find an issue powerful enough to move people when Congress is controlled by Republicans.
Tomorrow night is the 2015 State of the Union address. What can we expect from President Obama? Here are two quick predictions for you. Number one, pundits will hate the speech. Number two, voters will love the speech. Now, before you suspect that I've turned into Nostradamus, let's be honest here. Those are simple, easy predictions because they basically come true every single year. State of the Union addresses sound like they were put together by a big committee. There's no great theme. Typically, it's a huge laundry list of stuff. It sounds like that because that is what it is. And compared to State of the Union addresses, keynote speeches at political conventions, they typically don't have the themes and the poetry to them that other speeches do. So that's why people like me and other pundits don't like State of the Union addresses. However, the one thing that is notable is that State of the Union addresses are very popular. The voters, I think voters get tired of all the insider chatter and the horse race tittle tattle that passes for political journalism. So when they hear a president actually talking about substance policies that will affect their lives for a sustained period of time, it's really a breath of fresh air for most voters, especially voters who are not political junkies. Typically, you see a president's poll numbers bounce up in the week or two after a presidential State of the Union address. However, it reverts to the mean, typically a couple hours, excuse me, not that soon, but a couple of weeks later. So there isn't typically long lasting benefit. Now here's what is going to be interesting about the State of the Union address. What is it that President Obama puts the spotlight on? Because this is one of the few powers of the President that is undisputed. The President has the ability to get the whole world, or at least the world of voters who pay attention to any kind of news that isn't just entertainment news. The President has the ability to get people to really focus on that for a sustained period of time. Not just that 15 minute speech, but for the next day or two. That's what people are focused on. So what is he going to put his attentions on? So far what's been leaked has been his tax proposal that would reduce taxes for the middle class, lower classes, increase taxes on the wealthy. Now of course, given the makeup of the new Republican controlled Congress, that's a complete non starter. So the bigger issue for me is will President Obama use his power, and this is real power, to put a spotlight on an issue that will mobilize the public that will force the Congress to do something they might not otherwise do? That's the real question. I don't know the answer. Tune back here after the speech for a full analysis. I'm TJ Walker.
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