Who Won the 2016 VP Debate?

Speaking with TJ Walker, dissecting the communication skills and practices of world class leaders.

So who won the vice presidential debate? The answer is Tim Kaine and Mike Pence. Now that may sound like a cop out, but I give it to you like I see it. This is not a debate like what happened last week between Donald Trump and and Hillary Clinton in that particular case. All the Hillary Clinton supporters thought that she had won. Every single independent analyst said that Hillary Clinton won. And for the most part, all the Donald Trump supporters when speaking off the record, said that Donald Trump lost and Hillary Clinton won. Polling data soon reflected the vast majority of the country believed Hillary Clinton won. The she was simply much more forceful. Here's my prediction. When it comes to this debate, the people who support Hillary Clinton and like Senator Tim Kaine, they're all going to think that Tim Kaine destroyed Mike Pence. They are extremely pleased with his performance. They liked very much everything about how he came across. Now here's what's different from last week. The Donald Trump supporters are going to really like Mike Pence's performance. People who are pro Republican, pro conservative feel good about Mike Pence's performance. They are not sort of laughing nervously, awkwardly or putting on a fake smile when talking about his performance. They genuinely believe he came across as articulate, his intelligent, compassionate and forceful. So it's a bit of a wash. My prediction is that this campaign debate is not going to have much of an impact. It didn't change a lot of people's minds. Now let's dive a little deeper into how this debate will be analyzed. Tim Kaine will get some marks against him from interrupt. He did interrupt and he did interrupt more often than Mike Pence did. And that strikes some people as rude, even obnoxious. However, Tim Kaine did it in a way with such a smile on his face that he just came across as likable. Again, not to everyone, but I do think that when subjected to focus groups, most people would not view Tim Kaine very negatively. For those who are not particularly partisan in one camp or the other and are just viewing this debate on points, clearly Tim Kaine won on points. He factually stated clearly, quoting accurately things Donald Trump had said and then asked Mike Pence to defend it. Mike Pence continually dodged, weaved, bobbed and refused to do that. So anyone really tracking this carefully I believe would say Tim Kaine won on points. However, and here's where I'm going to alienate the other half of you. I do think Mike Pence had better style points he has a much, much better voice than Tim Kane. Tim Kaine doesn't have a bad voice, but Mike Pence has a fantastic voice. He looks presidential. Mike Pence has better hair than Tim Kaine. He certainly has better hair than Donald Trump. Some of you who are just tuning into this program for the first time are perhaps shocked and appalled at me making such superficial analysis. Well, this is a program about communication skills, public speaking skills, body language. So the superficial things have to be taken into account. There's something eminently soothing about Mike Pence's voice, and frankly, it's a bit shocking and surprising and even jarring in a positive way to be hearing a Republican at this stage of the year talking in whole sentences, saying things that even if you don't agree with them, are somewhat rational and coherent because that isn't how Donald Trump sounds when he talks. I think many voters across the spectrum saw Mike Pence thinking, wow, he would be a lot better than Donald Trump. Now many people are saying that about Tim Kaine, that he would be better than Hillary Clinton in that sense. Both candidates won tonight in that a lot of voters could look at them and visualize either one of them becoming president. As a vice presidential candidate, you don't want people getting nervous, shaking in their boots, quivering at the prospect of you becoming president. Because that has happened in the past in my lifetime. It certainly happened when Spiro Agnew was nominated by Richard Nixon in 1968 and again in 2008 with Sarah Palin getting the nomination for vice president. A lot of people just said, can't imagine this person becoming president. So both men helped themselves a great deal as far as introducing themselves to a much larger audience. This is the biggest audience either one of them has ever had, probably much larger than their acceptance speeches at their respective conventions. So they both, I believe, burnished their reputation, helped their standing within their own party. I really cannot imagine the campaign stats of either campaign being disappointed by their guy tonight. Tim Kaine, win or lose this November, I think he has to be considered a top tier presidential candidate. On the Democratic side, Hillary loses. Tim Kaine I think could be the front runner. Regardless of how Hillary does this year, four years from now, Tim Kaine would be the likely frontrunner because he does have so much respect within the Republican Party. A lot of people thought Mike Pence would be a strong Republican candidate. In 2016, he decided not to run. Some thought he would even run in 2012. He opted for the Governor's mansion in Indiana. How does this debate affect him? Things are a little trickier for Mike Pence because if Donald Trump loses, and if he loses in an electoral landslide, which I'm not necessarily predicting, but is certainly more likely than Hillary Clinton losing an electoral landslide, I think you may have a situation where anyone and everyone associated with Donald Trump is so tainted that the Republican Party tries to run far away from that person. And that sort of. If, for example, Trump does lose by a lot, Pence is not going to receive much attention, money, funding or backing if he were to go for the nomination in 2020. Now, if Trump wins, then obviously if Mike Pence is the sitting vice president, he would have a leg up running for the nomination in four or eight years. And something like tonight I think goes a long way towards making people feel comfortable with him. He certainly came across as a serious, credible, competent, intelligent, articulate person, which is a lot more than can be said about some people at the top of certain tickets. Mike Pence did have the harder challenge of the two candidates tonight because so much of the debate, fairly or unfairly, and you can question the moderator's choice if you want, but so much of the debate tonight really came down to this. Hey, Mike Pence, Donald Trump said this wild, outrageous, crazy thing that's sort of against everything you've ever stood for your whole career and is against what almost everyone in the Republican Party has stood for. Now, will you defend that? That's a tall order for Mike Pence or for anyone. And certainly there were times when he seemed like he was just having to dance away or come up with awkward phrases like, well, Donald Trump's not a politician or an experienced politician like you and Hillary. I don't know if those were great answers, but I can't think of any better answers. Those were tough, tough issues. So in sum, I do not predict that this debate really changes the fundamental dynamics of this political campaign. I don't think either candidate is going to be declared by a huge majority in the way Hillary was declared the victor of the first presidential debate. Could it spin based on pundits and the enthusiasm of campaigns one way or the other? With a slight plurality in polls a week from now, it's possible I think both candidates helped themselves, but didn't really help their campaigns in any dramatic way. I'm TJ Walker. Thanks for joining me.

Thanks for listening to speaking with TJ Walker. Where the communication skills and practices of world class leaders are dissected.