In this solo video, Australian property investor and coach Todd Polke examines whether now is a good time to invest in real estate amid significant market shifts. He outlines a massive, government‑driven undersupply of housing, citing National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) data that shows Australia builds about 138,000 homes a year but needs 180,000, leading to an estimated 106,000‑unit shortfall by 2027. He adds that 400,000 people are expected to immigrate in 2023, further inflating demand. Todd notes that interest rates have risen twelve consecutive times, intensifying a rental crisis. He critiques recent government measures—particularly a $2 billion plan to add only 9,000 social‑housing units—as short‑term, insufficient, and a distraction from the 41,000‑unit annual deficit. Concluding, he argues that a well‑chosen, well‑managed property in a good location will generally outperform a lifetime of renting, provided investors have a clear strategy, cash‑flow analysis, and long‑term perspective. He invites viewers to comment on policy effectiveness and personal investment decisions.
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Hey everyone, it's Todd here. So as an avid property investor myself, I've been coaching literally thousands of property investors over the years. One of the questions I'm getting asked a lot literally right now has to do with, is it still a good time to be investing in real estate? Based on all the changes that the government is making right now. Now, if you haven't been watching some of the media and just let me tell you some of what is going on right now. So here's a bit of backstory. The reality of the matter is, is that the government over the years has been very, very, very inept at actually bringing any type of supply to the marketplace. What it's basically meant is that we are sitting in this massive undersupply of real estate at this point in time. And what this actually suggests to come to is by 2027, they're suggesting we're gonna be 106,000 properties undersupplied compared to what we currently need right now. According to the National Housing— We've got some stats up in front of me. According to the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation of Australia, every single year currently we're building about 138,000 new houses are being built, but we need 180,000 a year just to keep up with the current global demand. And we have this absolutely massive level of immigration going on. So to the point that, you know, 400,000 people are due to move, are moving, or if not already, are due to move to Australia in 2023 alone. Now that is absolutely massive. Now, at the same time while this is going on, we've got interest rates that have gone up 12 times in a row and we've got this rental crisis happening and the government effectively has to be seen to be doing something about it. Now, some of the policies that have been coming out have been quite frankly ridiculous. They're really short-term thinking. This is one of my biggest challenges I have with housing policy driven by the government in Australia. It's all just short-term thinking, which isn't delivering a long-term outcome in any way, shape, or form, right? It's really about like show voting and popularity voting than it is actually then providing a legitimate solution for people for the future, right? So that's what the, one of the biggest problems are. Now, some of the ways they're doing this right now, most recently, most recently they've announced this, I think it's a $2 billion deal or $2 billion something or other to actually build 9,000 new social housing properties in Australia. So 9,000 new. Now keep in mind, I just said a moment ago that every single year we need 180,000, but we're only building 138,000. So we're 50,000 properties in the red every year. And so this big deal of this social housing, housing thing is that we're going to be creating 9,000 more social homes, right? Sorry, government, we're still, you know, 41,000 properties in the red compared to what you're currently delivering. Now we've got this massive undersupply going on and the reason we've got this massive undersupply again is the government's used property as a big tax grab over the many, many years that they used property investors as a bit of a tax grab along the way. And so there's all this stuff that's going on and people are bringing up to me, well, should I still invest in real estate or is it going to be a good thing, right? So here's my overall thoughts around that. There's a really simple question. Are you going to be better off investing in real estate or not investing in real estate? Right, if you fast forward the outcome of that, should I invest in real estate? What's my outcome if I did that, potential outcome? Or maybe I just don't invest in real estate because of these different changes going on. What's my outcome associated to that? Okay. Now, overwhelmingly, if you're buying a good property, you're buying in a good location, you're smart with what you're doing, you have a strategy, you have a plan, you know your cash flows, obviously owning real estate is gonna benefit you far more than the fact of not owning a piece of real estate and being a lifetime renter, which is where the reality of the market is going for most people. Those are my initial thoughts. I'd love to hear what you think. I would love to hear what you think about some of these policies which are coming out from the government and are they doing enough to actually handle this rental crisis even though the interest rates have just gone up kind of 12 times? You know, by the Reserve Bank and stuff. And are they doing enough? Are they not doing enough? What do you think they should be doing? And I'd love to hear what you guys think about all of that. Other than that, go and have a gorgeous evening, everyone, or morning, wherever you're dialing in from right now. And I'll see you in the next one. But put in the comments, let me know how you guys stay this. All right, ciao.
