Tom BurtonCo-Founder, COO and CTO of LeadSmart Technologies

Are Prediction Markets more accurate than polls? #MarketTrends

Name: Are Prediction Markets more accurate than polls? #MarketTrends
Uploaded: 2025-11-30T18:00:06+00:00
Duration: 3 s
Channel: Tom Burton
Description: Tom Burton and a co-host compare prediction markets to polls, using Polymarket as an example. Academic research shows markets often beat polls at…

30 Nov 2025 · 0 min

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Tom Burton and a co-host compare prediction markets to polls, using Polymarket as an example. Academic research shows markets often beat polls at forecasting. They cite market odds giving a 90s-percent chance of a Fed rate cut, though they question how precise those numbers really are.

Questions this video answers

November 30, 2025.

Polymarket.

94%–97% (speakers' cited market-implied probability).

About 2% (described as a long-shot bet).

Powell says Fed confronts growing risk of higher inflation, unemployment.
So here's the question. Let's hold that Polymarket up there, right? So the people that are watching can see the stats. Polymarket started as an online betting platform, but it's really turned into as a prediction tool. And there's a few sites like this, this one's, this one is called the Presidential election, you know, like a week or so before and it just tends to be super, super accurate.
There's been a bunch of studies on this is that crowd sourcing prediction markets are way more accurate than polls and traditional prediction pieces that are there, which is why this is so intriguing. And there's just, I have to say I think the 2% no change is a little, you know, that would be a good long shot bet. But I do believe there will be a cut. But 94% seems quite high to 97%, basically saying there'll be a cut of some sort.
My take on this is right now is that no ifs, ands or buts, we get this cut in October.