Tom Burton assesses a 29% probability the Supreme Court will rule for tariffs, after pushing back a decision originally expected in 2025 to early 2026 or later. The delay has caught observers off guard.
29%
December 15, 2025
The prediction is a 29% that the Supreme Court rules in favor of the tariffs.
This is about Trump getting squashed by the Supreme Court and getting rid of tariffs. And it's about just the mechanism and the statute that was used. To me, it's every day that this goes on. Further that the Supreme Court doesn't rule on this is a higher likelihood that they support it and allow it.
So here's what's a little, I don't know, interesting, but potentially a concern is that Supreme Court started the hearing arguments this week at the earliest. Now they're saying that a ruling will come. They were originally hoping for something in 2025. They are now saying a ruling will come in early 2026 at the earliest. It could even be later. I mean, it could be in the first quarter.
I didn't realize that. Thanks for looking at it. I thought this would be something that would move pretty quickly.
Well, I think that is quickly for them, but it's not like quickly like, hey, a week or two and we're done.
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