Tom Burton bets $100 on no interest-rate cuts by year-end, expecting a 10x payoff at 8% odds. He argues this outcome is plausible if the Federal Reserve makes decisions based on data rather than political pressure.
Questions this video answers
$100
8%
About 10x
Zero (no rate cuts)
Chapters
I think I told you before we went on this. Eight percent to me is the bet of the century. I'm going to put $100 on this and when I. And when I win my thousand of the century and you're only putting $100 on it, well that's like rounds of drinks and some calamari. But I figured. Yeah, but I figure if I win, right. Which I will or like you could pay off the stake from last year. I can pay off the stake from last year. Right. This is my strategy for this. Love it. I think, I think $100 bet would mean if they take the zero I get almost. They don't like to use the word vet. A hundred dollar investment would at 10x if they in fact do no rate cuts. But I do think that this is a very low expectation given what I just talked about is if the numbers stay the same and they continue to use the objective view of the decision making and they don't get pressured from the political aspect of it, zero is a very real outcome before between now and the end of the year in my opinion, much higher than 8%.