Tom Burton breaks down the Fed's quarter-point rate cut and Powell's messaging that tanked December cut odds from 89% to 65%. One governor wanted a half-point cut, another wanted no cut at all. Burton expects employment to soften slightly before year-end.
Probably everybody knows by now there was a quarter point cut. Of the 12 people, the Fed governors, 10 of them voted for a quarter point cut. One voted for a half a point cut, you could probably guess who that was. And one voted for no cut. So Powell came out in his briefing afterwards and said that December is not a 4klong conclusion and he said in fact anything but that, which then resulted in poly market here. So if you'll notice here, prior to on the 17th there was an 89% chance of a quarter point cut in December. That is now dropped to a 65% chance, almost a 30 point drop and obviously a lot more now believing there could be no change, but still 65%. People are saying that there is still going to happen and take place next this month. Despite Powell's sort of, you know, hey don't get ahead of yourself response. I think there will still be a quarter point cut next month. I don't think we're going to see much change in terms of the employment picture. If anything it will probably get a little bit worse between now and the end of the year.
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