Tom BurtonCo-Founder, COO and CTO of LeadSmart Technologies

Why the Fed’s rate cut isn’t what it seems #EconomicUpdate

Name: Why the Fed’s rate cut isn’t what it seems #EconomicUpdate
Uploaded: 2025-11-04T18:10:02+00:00
Duration: 59 s
Channel: Tom Burton
Description: Short commentary by Tom Burton explaining the Federal Reserve’s recent quarter-point rate cut vote breakdown (10 for 0.25pt, 1 for 0.5pt, 1 for no cut)…

4 Nov 2025 · 1 min

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Short commentary by Tom Burton explaining the Federal Reserve’s recent quarter-point rate cut vote breakdown (10 for 0.25pt, 1 for 0.5pt, 1 for no cut), Powell’s post-vote remarks cooling expectations for further cuts, and how market-implied probabilities for a December cut fell from ~89% to ~65%. Burton predicts a likely 0.25pt cut next month but expects employment to weaken slightly through year-end.

Questions this video answers

10 of 12 voted for a quarter-point cut.

1 voted for a half-point cut; 1 voted for no cut.

It fell from about 89% (prior to the 17th) to about 65% (after Powell's comments).

Chapters

Probably everybody knows by now there was a quarter point cut. Of the 12 people, the Fed governors, 10 of them voted for a quarter point cut. One voted for a half a point cut, you could probably guess who that was. And one voted for no cut. So Powell came out in his briefing afterwards and said that December is not a 4klong conclusion and he said in fact anything but that, which then resulted in poly market here. So if you'll notice here, prior to on the 17th there was an 89% chance of a quarter point cut in December. That is now dropped to a 65% chance, almost a 30 point drop and obviously a lot more now believing there could be no change, but still 65%. People are saying that there is still going to happen and take place next this month. Despite Powell's sort of, you know, hey don't get ahead of yourself response. I think there will still be a quarter point cut next month. I don't think we're going to see much change in terms of the employment picture. If anything it will probably get a little bit worse between now and the end of the year.