In this concise video, Tom Guarriello answers questions from non‑U.S. viewers about the U.S. presidential primary system. He explains why the Iowa caucuses matter as the first real test of voter preferences, contrasts Iowa’s caucus format with New Hampshire’s secret‑ballot primary, and outlines the early primary calendar—including Michigan, Nevada, Florida, and South Carolina—highlighting expected candidate performances in each state. Guarriello then describes Super Tuesday’s massive delegate haul, the role of party conventions in selecting the Democratic and Republican nominees, and speculates on a possible third‑party candidacy (e.g., Mike Bloomberg) if a candidate like Mike Huckabee were to win the Republican nomination. He invites further questions and encourages viewers to watch the upcoming New Hampshire primary.
Chapters
Well, hi, it's Tom Guarriello. Last week I had several questions from, uh, on Twitter and on my blog and here on YouTube from people who do not live in the U.S. who wanted to understand why is Iowa so important. So, quick primer about U.S. presidential politics. First of all, Iowa was so important because it was the first time that politicians actually heard from voters about their preferences. Of course, what we saw was Senator Obama and Governor Huckabee were strong winners in the, in the Iowa caucuses, but that didn't tell us as much as perhaps tomorrow will tell us in New Hampshire. Why? In New Hampshire, we have actual secret ballots being cast tomorrow. Now, if Senator Obama and Governor Huckabee do well there, not as likely maybe for Governor Huckabee given the fact that Senator McCain and Governor Romney are likely to be strong candidates there, we move on after that to two what I'll call minor primaries in Michigan and in Nevada. Those are going to be, I think, kind of toss-ups. Michigan, Romney is his favorite son there, it's his home state, and probably Obama has some support because there are probably more African American voters in Michigan than there are in any of the previous states. Then we get into some bigger states: Florida, South Carolina, and Florida on the 26th and 29th of January. Also interesting on the Republican side, in both of those states because Rudy Giuliani is probably going to get his first real test of whether or not he's a viable candidate in those two states. By the way, I think he's in trouble. He's waited a long time to really make a stand. All of which takes us to Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday, 20-something primaries to be held with hundreds of delegates to be decided. In big states: New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, big states all over the country. Now, hundreds of delegates. Delegates to what? Delegates to the conventions for the Republican and Democratic parties. We have two parties here in the main— in America. Those conventions take place in August, and they will determine who the nominees are, uh, for president. Usually two. Usually two, I say, because there's a possibility this year if we take the two winners from Iowa and we extrapolate out and say, okay, Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, Barack Obama on the Democratic side, a lot of Republicans are not going to be thrilled if Mike Huckabee actually does have momentum, does actually get the Republican nomination, and that might bring about the possibility of a third party. We had a third party, serious third party last time here in 1992 when Bill Bill Clinton was elected president with the help of Ross Perot. Now, if Huckabee were to be in the lead, were to get the nomination, look for a possible third-party run by New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. And if that were to take place, imagine this: Barack Obama, African American; Mike Huckabee, evangelical, former Baptist minister; and Mike Bloomberg, Jewish, New York billionaire mayor of the city. Would that be an amazing presidential race or what? So if you got more questions, fire away, ask them, uh, be happy to try to answer. And I know other people have a lot more information about this than I do. So take care. Watch tomorrow night. Big deal. I think Senator Obama's got strong momentum. See ya. Bye-bye.
