How Fit is Changing with Ed Gribbin

So hi, I'm here with Ed Gribbin. Ed, welcome to the show.

Thanks, great to be here.

It's really good to have you here. Ed, I think today we're probably going to talk about fit, as I've heard that's kind of your thing.

Fit? Me? I don't know where that comes from. Yeah, actually the funny thing is that I joke about this, but I tell people I spent 20 years in the uniform industry, and I learned everything I needed to know, I thought, about fit in the uniform and workwear industry because you had to outfit every size of person imaginable. We did a lot of work with airlines, so we had pilots, flight attendants, baggage handlers, and so you had every possible height, weight, body type, and we had to not only give them product that fit them, we had to make them look professional. So I learned an awful lot about that, but that was nothing compared to launching IntelliFit in 2000, and we created the first body scanner that you could scan people with their clothes on and collect real-time data on what their measurements were. Um, Levi's was one of our very first clients, and we rolled it out globally with Levi's. And very shortly after that, I started seeing these patterns in the data, which I just found fascinating. And it kind of— the light bulb went off, and I decided that, you know, the industry has been doing things wrong forever. The data says people look like this, three-dimensionally, but they're making— the industry is making patterns two-dimensionally with the wrong measurements. The fit models are not accurate compared to the customers, and So we built up a consulting practice, and a few years in, I was doing a lot of work with Alvanon because we were doing the, the data gathering and the data analysis for brands and retailers. Alvanon was doing their, their mannequins at the time in the supply chain, and Dr. Kenneth Wang, the founder of Alvanon, approached me and said, you know, we should work together. And so in 2006, I merged my practice into Alvinon, and kind of the rest is history. We've built Alvinon up to be the global expert on apparel fit and sizing, and there's a whole team of people there who are just absolutely expert at what they do. And frankly, there's no one in the world who does that as well as Alvinon. So we're very proud of what we built there.

Yeah, it was amazing. Um, were you sad to leave a couple years ago?

Uh, I wasn't, uh, looking forward to leaving. I, I think that, um I got an itch at, you know, I was there 12 years. I've never been anywhere more than 10. And I kind of got an itch at the 12-year mark that said, you know, I want another chapter in my life. I want to do something else. And I really didn't want to do fit and sizing. I've built, you know, a world-class team who can do that. And people still come to me today with fit and sizing. Someone came to me here today and said, I'm going to be the CEO of a new— not a new company, a luxury company. That does women's wear in Europe. I need to bring you in. And I said, what for? And he said, fit and sizing. I said, no, no, let Alvinon do that. And he appreciated that. Now, my new practice is really focused on two things that I've been passionate about: helping businesses grow. So I do growth strategy work for, not for the big guys, but for medium-sized retailers and brands, and supply chain strategy. So part of it's front end dealing with the customer, part of it's the back end dealing with factories and quality and sustainability and productivity in their supply chains. So I get a kick out of the kinds of projects I'm doing now, and, but I still have my hand in Fit. I still communicate regularly. I'm a senior advisor with Alvinon and I just enjoy chatting about it.

Yeah. Over the 12 years you were with Avanon, you must have seen a huge change in the way that companies approach fit. What are some new innovative and engaging ways that people are doing this today?

Well, I think, you know, it's amazing. When we started this, the iPhone hadn't been invented. And now you have something in your pocket that's as powerful as any computer was 10 years ago. In fact, more so.

Yeah, way more so.

And, um, body scan technology, you know, we were one of the pioneers with millimeter wave technology and body scanners. Uh, now there's about a dozen companies using handheld devices, uh, to scan a person, and they're getting more and more accurate every year. And so a person who's unsure about what they want to buy in terms of size can probably take a selfie And if not now, within another year, they'll be able to take a selfie, match it up to any brand or retailer, get the best fitting size, see what that size looks like on them as an avatar, um, and then make their decision if I'm going to buy it or not. And I think it's going to have a huge impact on, uh, returns and on customer satisfaction, customer engagement. Um, there are a lot of companies over the past 7 or 8 years who have, uh, launched different approaches to fit technology in terms of the B2C side, helping a consumer figure out the right size. Most of them don't work, and many of those companies have gone out of business. But, uh, the ones that have stayed, uh, are either using that cell phone technology or they're using algorithm— algorithms based on, uh, answers to certain questions you may ask, and they create a psychographic profile of you. And from your answers, they can actually use predictive algorithms to say, well, your cross shoulder measurement is 17 inches, your chest is 39 inches, your waist is 30.5 inches, and you're this tall. And it's amazing how accurate that predictive technology is. And it's big data feeding on big data. And there are some really innovative things happening in that area. So while the average consumer, you know, it's very different UK versus US. In the US, 80-85% of apparel sales are influenced by mobile, but less than 10% happen on mobile. In the UK, same number, about 80-85% of purchases are influenced by mobile technologies, but over 20% is purchased either online or on a mobile device. So the UK is more comfortable with buying something online, and it may be Partially, I've heard people argue that it's because there's such a glut of square footage at retail in the US. It's almost you walk out the door and you're tripping over a retail store. In the UK, it's a much more reasonable amount of square footage per capita. And that may or may not be true, but that number— people predicted in 2010, 2011 that half of all apparel would be purchased online. And I don't think that's happening. And I don't think it'll ever happen because as we see the shopping patterns of the younger millennials and the older Gen Z shoppers, they like the store experience. They still want to use mobile as a discovery tool, but they want to go into the store, they want to touch the fabric, they want to feel it. And I think that that's going to cap the amount of business that's done with apparel, at least online, in the future. Might it get to 30%? Possibly. But I also look at what's happening with retail and the retailers are— were not very smart people 10 years ago, but they're getting much smarter today. When we had the global financial crisis in '07 and the recession of '08 and '09, most retailers were— had their heads in the sand and they thought that when the economy started to come back that they didn't have to change anything. The customer would just come back. But that's when the customer was just starting to get to use that mobile technology and and search engines and do their shopping on a device where they might say, "Well, I used to go to this store, but now I found this other store that I can go to," and traffic never came back the way retailers hoped it would. You know, fast forward to today, and I go to ShopTalk and NRF and all the major retail shows, and not only the technology, but the customer engagement tools that are out there today are allowing retailers to better connect with customers. They've decided that they needed fewer stores. Macy's at one point had 800 stores. They're down to 600 stores. Um, but they're better stores. They're smaller formats. Um, they're in the right places. Uh, and they're figuring out how to reinvent retail as experience. Um, and I think all over the world I see that happening. So the store is not going to go away. But I think in the store, the retailers really need to figure out a better way than that traditional fitting room to figure out— when I'm left to my own devices to take 6 garments in and see which one fits, that's where I think the real opportunity is for these fit technologies today, is to be able to use them in store. And some of them have been tried, Magic Mirror type technologies. They haven't been a great success so far, but my hope is that the same types of— I mean, this is like an omnichannel discussion, you know, they want to sell you something through any channel, but can they fit you through any channel? Well, the technology has really been focused on mobile for fitting and online for fitting. And it's never been done in store very well, because they assume you'll just take it and try it on. And the consumer is going to get fed up and say, you know what, that's a waste of my time. Why can't I use this technology here? So I think we're going to see that shift in the next year or two, so where these technologies are going to be more prevalent at retail than they are today.

I think you're absolutely right. And a big problem with in-store, as you say, fit is You don't want to take all of those things into the fitting room anymore, but there is that problem with the digital mirrors that they don't quite work to a level that is satisfying enough when you're using them to add to that experience and get you to purchase. If anything, I would say they might put you off, right, at the moment. Um, and perhaps that's why they haven't taken off. I don't know what your thoughts on those are.

Well, and I don't think they accurately represent the nuances of drape, texture, and the fit characteristics, the 3D fit characteristics of a garment realistically on a body. It's interesting that there is still a deep-seated misunderstanding in the industry that we need to overcome, and that is that If I use one of these technologies and it creates an avatar that is accurate to my body, uh, the brand is still making product conventionally, so they're making standard sizes. They're not customizing the product. So what are they going to do? They're going to recommend the closest size for me, and they may or may not show it realistically on the avatar, but their goal is not to fit my body. Their goal is to sell me something. And so there's a disconnect there. And if my body shape is such that it's not going to fit in a particular brand very well, they're not going to tell me that because they, they still want to sell me something. They're going to show me the closest possible one. I think that that disconnect is going to force people into eventually more customization. When I know that a person's body is like this and I know that my garment is like this, Do I need to make an alteration? Do I need a different type of fit? Do I need to add more extended sizes? Do I need to add more petite sizes? And I think size inclusivity was a big point of discussion in the industry throughout 2018, and it's still a very popular discussion point into 2019. And that size inclusivity had a lot to do with adding plus-size ranges. Brands that never had them before— Anthropologie, part of the Urban Outfitters Group just recently launched their new plus line. That's one of dozens of companies that avoided that category for many years, and they're trying to be more inclusive. That will help, but what they're doing is they're throwing more SKUs at the, at the sizing and fit problem to try to better fit that diversity of humans that are out there who want to shop in a particular brand. Eventually, I think that the industry is going to get to a more on-demand personalized fit model where my size isn't 40 or 39 or 38 or 32. My size is me, and the industry is going to figure out a way to do mass customization, either have standard styles that can be customized for fit purposes, or even custom styles where I can pick and choose my own design. And then have it fit me personally. And I think that that's the future.

Yeah, well, and you've got two factors there. You have the digital e-commerce experience of looking, seeing how I look in that garment, and then you have the on-demand manufacturing side where the company actually makes the clothing to fit you. Both of them are quite exciting. In the former, when do you think we will get to a stage where I can scroll through my phone and genuinely have an avatar that is a standard avatar that is used across the board, across all brands, that I can see me in any piece of clothing? Do you think we can get there in the next 5 years, perhaps?

Oh, I think in the next 5 years we can. I think the— this whole idea of platform whether it's Uber or Airbnb, I think there will be a platform where we can use our avatar to shop with any brand, any retailer. There's still that resistance in the industry because if you scan something using my app, I only want to fit you in my brand. I don't want to share that. I don't want to share you as a customer with any other retailer. And so that proprietary attitude I think is gonna break down because we're used to, in so many areas of our lives today, embrace— embracing this idea of platform. And I think with apparel, whether it's branded or generic, you're gonna see a platform come along that someone aggregates all of the possible options I have to buy something with my unique information, and I'll be able to shop comfortably wherever I want to. And I'll know that in this brand it's, it's cut in a certain way that's just not going to fit me very well. Okay, I'll try another brand. And the technology will be robust enough that it'll filter for me if I want just those brands that would fit me well, just those brands that fit my taste level, just those brands that are going to be appropriate for the event that I'm buying this for. You know, I'm going I'm hanging out with my friends, or I'm going for a job interview, or I'm going to a wedding. And so all of that will allow us to get a much more personalized experience when it comes to shopping. And back to an earlier point, though, it not only has to happen in the digital world, mobile devices, it has to happen in store as well, because the store needs to mimic that same experience. And I don't want to waste my time online. But I also don't want to waste it in the store unless I'm there for, you know, that discovery experience. Like, I want to shop and I want to feel all the fabrics and I don't know what I want and it's going to be an impulse buy. So there's going to be a significant percentage of shoppers who always want that discovery experience.

Well, we're still seeing that today, that even though everyone thought that we'd all be shopping online, we're not. Because really, you know, there are times when we all want to put our phone down and go, you know, whether it's not to the park, but to the store or walk around town, you know, do a bit of window shopping.

Yeah, I think, you know, there's nowhere in the world— I mean, Hong Kong is a fabulous place to go shopping. London is a fabulous place to go shopping. But there are tiny towns all over the world that have great shopping still. And walking down— I live in a tiny suburb of Philadelphia. And our little Main Street is only 2 blocks long, but there are specialty shops lining the street. And if I'm walking to the post office, I'll stop and look in the window and I might see a really interesting tie that, "Wow, I want that." And I'll just pop in and see it, a great color, it would go with the suit that I have. And so I think that discovery experience is still very important to people. The rise of off-price TK Maxx, TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, Burlington, the off-price outlets. They buy closeouts and end of runs, and they actually produce some of their own product in relatively small quantities because they want it to run out and they don't want to be stuck with that inventory. So, but what they do is they have new product coming in every week, and so people are conditioned to go in. That's the thing that made Zara such a success, is Zara had Every 2 weeks, there would be a new mini collection. And shoppers began to get used to that, almost like a Pavlovian response, that, you know, oh, it's Tuesday. I should look in the Zara window and see what's there. Because Zara's other value proposition besides newness has always been scarcity. So if they buy something that's a fashion item, they buy a limited quantity. So they want it to sell out. It's one of the reasons they have the highest full-price sell-through throughout the apparel industry. And, um, but that also has conditioned the consumer to say, you know what, I like that, I tried it on, it fits me okay, I wasn't going to buy this today, but I better because if I come back tomorrow it'll be gone. They only have 2 in my size. And so that, that value proposition of scarcity is something that I predicted in 2012 would really change our industry, and it hasn't. And I was just dead wrong because we're still at retail mass-producing months and months and months in advance, letting it sit on a boat for a month to come back to either the States or the UK or Europe, and then we put it on the rack and we hope it sells. And that time from design concept to the consumer's back is at minimum a year, but in most cases, more like 16 months for most brands and retailers. And they're producing massive quantities that they know are going to be marked down. And, you know, I really can't understand why we haven't learned that lesson yet.

It's crazy. I've had— about 7 or 8 conversations here in Hong Kong this week. And, um, we've talked loads about when is the industry going to change and we're all waiting for it and we're all saying how wrong it is, but we're all in the industry and, um, nothing's quite changed yet, but I do feel like we are on the cusp. I feel like on-demand manufacturing and it's the technologies that support this digital world, this big transformation. That are now coming about. And I guess with the advent of 5G, perhaps that will help things. But there's also a massive mindset change that needs to happen in the industry as well, both at a brand manufacturer and consumer level.

You know, I call it, you know, feeding the beast. You know, you've got this beast. If you're a retailer today and you have 100 stores, 500 stores, 3,000 stores, you've got to have product in those stores and you have to produce massive amounts of product. In order to— I mean, think about the big global retailers, Zara aside, because they limit the amount of production. They have 4,400 stores, but they usually never make more than 24,000 units of a style, whereas a lot of other retailers make hundreds of thousands of units of a style, and they have to feed their retail presence. And with it the whole financial model is predicated on a higher and higher IMU. They need a higher markup because they know they're going to mark it down. And if they want to, at the end of the day, have a 40% gross margin, they've got to start with 80% because they know they're going to mark that down. That's the thing that, as we see the retail landscape shifting to fewer stores, but more flagship experiences. I think we're going to see that start to scale back. I do think there's going to be a tsunami effect at some point, though, when technology enables that on-demand customized product. There are— I gave a speech at a conference last fall where I talked about new business models in fashion and retail. 4 years ago, none of these people would have survived. Now there's about 30 or 40 brands between Europe and the US that are startups that have innovative new models on how they're gonna reach out. And they're not trying to make product for millions of people like the traditional retail mindset. They're trying to find a tribe of loyalists to their concept who are micro markets of 100,000 people, 50,000 people. There's a startup here at this conference who I've been talking to who's starting up a brand focused on CrossFit athletes in China. Who knew? And the fittest man in China who just won the CrossFit Championship of China is the spokesperson for this brand. And that's the way millennials and Gen Z creative types think about how, you know what, I don't need to make 800 stores around the world to sell my concept. I can reach out to the consumer digitally. I can use social media and influencers. And I can create a product that speaks to a group of people who are going to be massively loyal as a community to my concept, to my, vision and hopefully to my product. And I see more and more of those coming up. And, you know, there's this collision of great ideas, the technology that enables them to develop a business, and huge amounts of private equity money sitting on the sidelines. That's easy to get money to invest if you have the right idea. And so those three things coming together, we're going to see many, many more of these brands in the years ahead. There's a— at Parsons School of Design in New York, there's XRC, which is an incubator laboratory that nurtures startups. They take in 15 candidates every season, and they narrow it down, and there are usually 7 or 8 winners that they fund as startups. And these companies have really creative ideas on how to create fashion that a particular group of consumers, not consumers in general, but a particular group that have certain values or certain tastes or certain size characteristics, are going to gravitate towards and be very loyal once they find this. And I, I think that, um, is going to— eventually there's going to be a tipping point that will hit, and massive conventional retail will become the minority. I don't think it's going to go away, but it'll be the minority. And the majority of fashion choices will be from these new, like-minded, very focused tribal-type brands.

It's exciting times.

Yeah, I think so.

Well, Ed, thank you very much for coming on the show.

My pleasure, and thanks for having me.