Iran War Has Triggered the Biggest Oil Crisis in History. What It Means for Net Zero

Hey, thanks so much for listening. I would love to be able to help you more on what it is that you are listening to and why you're listening to, to me. If you could click on the link in the show notes, that would be awesome because it will help me define what it is that we should be talking about on this podcast. Before we start, The IEA is calling the Iran war the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped from 20 million barrels per day to a trickle. Stay to the end because what that means for net zero strategy is something every business leader needs to hear. This week in sustainability, here are your top 10 stories ranked by what the world is talking about most. Number 10, flexible plastic packaging. The ocean crisis your supply chain is fueling, direct food and beverage relevance. The sachets, wrappers, pouches widely used in food and beverage supply chains are the single biggest driver of ocean plastic pollution globally. A new Ellen MacArthur Foundation report confirms that flexible plastic packaging makes up 80% of all plastic entering the world's oceans, and it has some of the lowest recycling rates of any packaging format. The report sets out a transition path to paper-based alternatives, drawing on over 60 sector experts. The clear message for food and beverage businesses: if your products use small format flexibles at scale, the transition conversation needs to start now. Number 9: Africa's energy future. The gap is getting bigger, not smaller, for organizations with global supply chains or ESG frameworks that include social equity. The IEA's own projections now show energy poverty in Africa deepening through 2050, not improving. Analysis from Hannah Ritchie at Our World in Data drawing on IEA scenarios show that The average person in Africa consumes electricity at roughly 20 times lower a level than someone in the US. Under current policy scenarios, that gap grows by 2050 and not shrinks. Africa won't have reached India's current electricity levels, which are already very low, by mid-century. Cheap solar offers some hope, but economic growth is the critical driver And current projections on that front are bleak. Number eight, the PFAs. In the UK, the UK has its first forever chemical strategy for businesses using food contact materials, packaging, textiles, or industrial coatings. PFAs regulation in the UK is now moving. Getting ahead of it is significantly cheaper than reacting to it. The UK government has released its first dedicated strategy for tackling PFAS, the per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances found in everything from food packaging to non-stick coatings. Business Green describes the approach as commendably holistic, though critics say it lacks enforcement teeth. PFAS don't degrade. They accumulate in water, soil, and human tissue, and regulators across the UK and EU are tightening. If your supply chain hasn't assessed its PFAS exposure, this is the signal to start. Number 7, internal carbon fees. 220+ companies are already pricing their own emissions. For food and beverage and media, marketing, and advertising businesses, the sector is sitting near the bottom of the internal carbon pricing league table, and that gap is increasingly visible to investors, clients, and procurement teams. The 2026 Internal Carbon Fee Tracker reports that over 220 companies now apply a per-ton internal carbon fee to their ongoing GHG emissions. Technology firms lead at an average of $118 per ton. Financial services sit at $90. Food and beverage averages $47. And consumer goods and retail are right at the bottom at $22 a ton. Internal carbon pricing shapes procurement behavior, capital allocation decisions, and ESG disclosures. If you don't have one in place, your competitors either do or are building one. Number 6, beer, hops, and climate. A warning for every food and beverage business, direct food and beverage relevance. It's water, barley, and hops, the 3 core inputs to beer production, are all under direct climate threat. What's unfolding in the Pacific Northwest is a live preview for global agricultural supply chains. 75% of America's hops are grown in the Pacific Northwest. Where mountain snowpack is shrinking rapidly, drought is now stretching into potential fourth consecutive year. Climate Central visited brewers and hop researchers and found the answer: all three of beer's core ingredients face climate risk. Brewers are testing drought-resistant grains like cornza as a contingency for any food and beverage business reliant on water-intensive crops. This is not a distant risk. It is a current operational challenge. Number 5, biodiversity. $44 trillion of global GDP is sitting on a disappearing foundation. For organizations with £50 million turnover or more, biodiversity loss is now a material business risk with direct implications for supply chain stability, compliance, and long-term investment decisions. 2 new reports from EDDI make the business case plainly. Wildlife populations have dropped 73% globally since 1970. In the UK, 41% of species have declined and 15% face extinction. The financial exposure? Over $44 trillion of global GDP is moderately or highly dependent on nature. That's more than half of the world's economic output. Biodiversity is no longer an environmental issue in isolation. It's a balance sheet issue. Number 4, US climate policy, systemic rollbacks and what they mean for global business. For media marketing and advertising businesses and multinationals with US operations, the regulatory gap between the US and the rest of the world is now material. Scenario planning for both directions is essential. This week alone, the DOJ and the DOT sued California to block its electric vehicle mandates, standards followed by 17 states covering over a third of the US auto market. Arizona repealed its renewable energy standard. A federal court dismissed a greenwashing case against Apple over its carbon-neutral Watch Series 9. Meanwhile, China adopted a new environmental code consolidating 10 existing laws. The transatlantic policy divergence is significant. How you frame sustainability position for the US versus international stakeholders needs to be intentional. Number 3: Nuclear. The UK means business. For organizations planning long-term energy procurement, infrastructure investment, or supply chain decarbonization, Nuclear baseload is back in play, and with it comes new technology and partnership opportunities. The UK government confirmed long overdue reforms to accelerate nuclear power delivery. In parallel, Rolls-Royce SMR and Equilibrium signed an agreement to explore generating sustainable aviation fuel using small modular reactor energy, with the potential to produce over 160 million liters of SAF per reactor per year. Nuclear is no longer a fringe option. It's being built into serious decarbonization roadmaps, including hard-to-abate sectors like aviation. Number 2, net zero is cheaper. The CCC just made the business case final. For every organization that has used cost as the primary reason to delay its net zero program, the Climate Change Committee has just moved that argument. The UK's Climate Change Committee published a landmark analysis delivering net zero costs less than the economic damage caused by a single fossil fuel price shock. And the Iran war is providing real-time evidence in supporting of that case. Global renewables capacity is projected to double by 2031. Long-duration energy storage installations grew 49% in 2025. US solar installed 43 gigawatts last year, 54% of all new electricity capacity. The economics have shifted. Clean energy is now a lower-risk, lower-cost choice. Number 1, the Iran war, the largest oil supply disruption in history. This is the defining business story of the week and potentially of the decade. Fossil fuel dependency is no longer just an environmental liability; it is an active operational risk. The IEA's March 2026 oil market report uses language it has never used before: the US-Israeli war with Iran constitutes the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from. Approximately 20 million barrels per day to a trickle. Gulf countries have cut total production by at least 10 million barrels per day. Global supply is projected to drop 8 million barrels per day in March. Fortescue's Andrew Forrest this week called fossil fuels a weapon of war. The business case for accelerating the energy transition has never been more urgent. Or more clearly proven by events. So top 3 mind-blowing environmental facts from this week. The average person in Africa can only afford to run an air conditioner for a few minutes per day on their entire daily electricity budget. Under current IEA policy scenarios, that gap versus the developed world is projected to grow by 2050, not close. Flexible plastic packaging. The sachets, wrappers, and pouches prevalent to the food and beverage sector account for 80% of all plastic entering the world's oceans and carry some of the lowest recycling rates of any packaging format globally. Global wildlife populations have collapsed by 73% since 1970. Not 7.3%, not 17%, 73%. More than 2/3 of all wildlife on Earth gone in just 50 years. If you want to be a part of our network, please DM me or comment below.

Grab free access to Will's Substack while it lasts. Every week we pull together the top sustainability stories from dozens of trusted sources. Then he breaks down the big issues facing business right now in plain, practical terms. Link in the description.