Aaron Hartman, MD presents a YouTube video demonstrating an online COVID-19 risk calculator that estimates an individual’s risk of hospitalization and death based on inputs like gender, comorbidities, A1C, blood pressure, weight, and age. Using his own inputs he reports example outputs (hospitalization ~3.3%, mortality ~0.09%), and shows how risks rise with chronic disease, immunocompromise, higher A1C (prediabetes ~6.0 → death ~0.12; diabetic range → ~0.14), higher weight, higher blood pressure, and adding 10 years of age (hospitalization ~6.2%); he notes an estimated "COVID age" of 61 for himself and that people over 80 have about an 85% chance of surviving infection. He emphasizes using the tool to reduce anxiety, to guide lifestyle changes (diet, vitamin D, NAC), and to remain vigilant with public-health measures.
Chapters
Great to be with everybody once again. I would love to share this resource that I came across with everybody because I feel like this is going to be very useful for people. Mainly you can determine your own risk for getting severe COVID 19 being admitted to the hospital and dying from this infection. This is based on the most up to date data that we've been looking at over the last six to nine months and I'm going to walk you through this. It's a great resource, encourage everybody to look at. One of the points of doing this is if you have your high risk, say your mortality risk is 3, 4, 5, 6% then you probably should look at diet, lifestyle, inflammatory, vitamin D, nac, a lot of the things we talk about in our survival guide resource as well as on the post and online. These are things you should look at to modify your risk. So anyway, so this is. I did this actually for myself. You put your gender in here. Underlying risk factors Once you One interesting thing is you can kind of click. This has my risk of being hospitalized if I get sick at 3.3%, my risk of dying at 0.09% which is roughly around the flu level. If I was to have chronic disease, it jumps up significantly. If I was immunocompromised it would jump up significantly. If I had one disease it would jump up significantly. Other things to look at blood pressure is important. My A1C is actually pretty good. I'm gonna watch it routinely. But if you're pre diabetic, say your A1C is 6.0, all of a sudden your chance of dying is 0.12. If you get in the diabetic range it goes up to 0.14. And if you're an ADA, the American diabetic association, an averagely well controlled diabetic at 7.0. At my age, my blood pressure that shows my risk going up to 1.6. The other interesting thing is you get to see how weight plays into this. You can play with this a little bit. Look at your we what weight you need to get down to. If I was say 200, all of a sudden, you know, my risk pops up a little bit. My mortality is getting closer to a 0.19. Probably one of the biggest things that will make a difference with your risk for dying is age, which we've talked about before. Just taking and adding 10 years to my age, all of a sudden my risk of hospitalization is 6.2%. So I would just encourage. The interesting thing though is my Covid age thing goes to 61. So I think this is an interesting little tool. I encourage you to look at play with it a little bit, just calculate your own risk. Maybe this will help you with some of the stress and anxiety. If you see your risk is really low based on your risk factors, based on your weight, age, et cetera. This does not negate our need to be vigilant to social distance, to wear a mask indoors and all these kind of things that are happening right now. But I think it helps us to be a little more in control, realize things are not as bad as they seem. I think that's one of the big messages is people to realize if you get this, you're still more likely to survive than not to survive. If you're over 80 and you get this, you have an 85% chance of surviving. Most people who get this will survive and even most older, sicker people who will get this will survive. This is a nice tool that kind of helps you play with those things and figure it out for yourself. So enjoy. If these videos are helpful, information I'm providing is helpful, please share with family, friends. Also follow us on YouTube Facebook as well. Continue to look for good source information and to focus on those and not some of the other things that are going around out there because it is truly the wild west these days out there as far as quality information. Also been posting about this on social media Facebook and putting some more articles out there reference to some of the quality of the data. So hopefully this will help Guy Rabbi in the decisions as well. Take care and be safe.
