Updates in CV: Preparing for a New Phase—Part I

Aaron Hartman reviews COVID-19 case curves across countries and U.S. states, arguing the U.S. has flattened daily cases enough to begin reopening. He highlights how outbreaks concentrate in population centers, projects seasonal rises in the Southern Hemisphere, and pivots to therapeutics and immune support as the next focus.
Chapters
Welcome back, everybody. So what I'd like to do is just summarize a few things and kind of talk about a way forward with everything. So I'd like to walk through some of the numbers throughout the world, the United States, kind of talk about the thinking with where we're at now because we are reentering society. Some states never close down. The United States, many, if not most, are thinking about how to re enter. So I'd like to kind of go through these numbers to inform some of those decisions and then talk about therapeutics, because I think that's the next level is how do we treat ourselves if we get sick? What's happening out there right now? Because there are a lot of, lot of drug studies that are not even being talked about. And I think that would be encouraging for us to know there are actually a lot of therapeutics being looked at and studied that actually have some reasonable data behind them that should help inform us as well as alleviate some of our anxiety. So I just want to start with this because ultimately, numbers are numbers and statistics are statistics. This is the world from the worldometer.info, and if you look at the world, it says, wow, the total cases are skyrocketing, the deaths are skyrocketing, but again, these are totals and these are never going to go down. That's the point of this, is these numbers will continue to go up and up and up because that's what happens. So that's where looking at the numbers and data can be helpful, not to necessarily get us overly concerned about things. If you look at the world overall, we have three, of which the United States represents about a third. So basically, our country is the epicenter now. Our country is the epicenter. If you look at the number two, number three, the UK for Germany, you look down the list. Basically, they drop off very, very quickly. So looking at the United States is an important exercise to see what's going on throughout the world, which we'll do here in a moment. If you do look at the cases in the United States, you see, look, wow, we flattened out as of April 3, kind of hit our peak as far as new daily cases. So we have flattened the curve and this is the reason why we're now talking about reentry into society, reopening businesses, because it's been roughly a month, today's the 1st of May, so it's been roughly a month since we flattened the curve. And so it's about time for us to re enter. How do we do that? That's the public debate we need to be having. Rigorously, if we go throughout and look at Australia now, I'm going to be referring back to Australia a lot because they crushed the curve. Look at this. Went up, it came down. Absolutely astounding. We see the same phenomena. If we look at New Zealand, they totally crush it. What you have to realize is these countries are one in the Southern hemisphere. They are entering their fall right now. So expect to see spikes in these countries. Expect to see New Zealand have a spike, expect to see Australia have a spike simply because they're entering their fall and wintertime. That is not. That should not be a surprise to us. If you've been following us this whole time, we've been following numbers, we've been describing the numbers that will. That should not be a surprise. So expect to see that to come into the news cycles here in the near future. If you look at The United States versus Europe again, size wise, the United States, we're basically 50 countries. We are about population wise, about equivalent to the entire EU bloc. But if you look at number of deaths or cases, you see how we're lagging behind them. If you look and you see how as far as the day at which you reached your first hundred deaths, they hit it before us, they're ahead of us. Well, that's because this disease came from China to Iran, Italy to Europe, the United States. This is to be expected. But you do see how our case has actually flattened out way before the European cases, which I think is instructive. We did do. We've done some things right here. I think that's the point. We've done some things right. If we now look at the. I kind of like watching this just to remind people this is how this thing progressed from, from China, Russia, United States throughout the world. Now it's going south. We'll see it start to enter Africa, South America. And so that's where some of the information talking will be moving to these countries where it's spreading. So again, we're watching an actual epidemic in action. We should be aware of that. So Sweden, everybody's talking about Sweden. Look at this. Now I want to note, you never saw a huge spike in Sweden, by the way. They never closed down. I think most of us realize that by now. They never flatten the curve, but see how it's kind of spreading out. They've kind of controlled it through some basic isolation and the elderly and sick. They've allowed the younger people to continue to go out. Restaurants were still open, but with Some social distancing in place. There was not a free fall. They're probably going to hit herd immunity by the end of the summer, which means they won't have a peak in the fall. So there's got to be, there's. It's really interesting the WHO put out an article this past week talking about Sweden, how maybe they had it right. Well, we're gonna be learning about that. You know, Hindsight is always 2020. Just remember that this is not a time for us to be critical of ourselves and others. It's a time for us to be looking forward. Take the information from the past, but use it to look forward anyway. Switzerland, they kind of had a little mixed kind of response with the way they did things, but you can see how they flatten the curve as well. Again, all these countries are entering their spring like us, so we should expect to see these cases to come down as well. The UK tried to do Sweden, they tried to stay open and they decided to close down. And so you see how they. Again, April 3rd, about the same time as the United States started flattening our curve, they did as well. And just again, that's been a month. It's been a month since the daily new cases have been flattened for the United States as well as the UK. Italy again peaked 5-19-ish, which was, you know, maybe half a month before. If you look at where we were at April 3rd and they've kind of had a slow decline. So they're going to continue to have cases. This going to be continued to be a dribbling throughout Italy as people reenter society. The other thing, as we reenter, look for new peaks as more and more people get this, the chance of a huge surge will go down. You know, as we get closer to herd immunity, the chance for surge will continue to go down. But expect as we start reentering, expect to see this start to blip back up. That's another thing I want to talk about is we should expect to see things peak back up slightly as we reenter. So moving on to New York again, it's really funny if you look at the world. The United States represents one third of the world cases. Look in New York compared to the United states, we had 960,000 cases right here, New York representing 288. That's almost a third. So it's interesting. We're seeing throughout the world. Yes, it's throughout the world, but it's concentrated in population centers. Yes, the whole world has it, but it's mainly in the United States. Now, for some reason in the United States, it's mainly in New York. If you look at the rest of the world, we see centers in places like Italy, China. So if you go down the list, I live in Virginia and you don't even see Virginia on the list. Places like Florida, which is a pretty big state with a lot of old people, only 30,000 cases. If you compare New York, New York has about 19, 18 and 19 million people compared to California, which has about 38 to 39 million people. Look, California has, you know, way maybe 12 to 15% of the cases of New York. Again, we have to. The point of all this is every location is local. Okay? That's the basic gist. If we look at the United States, this is the, this is looking at hospital usage in the United States. We didn't meet peak. And again, of course, the United States, we're coming down now with cases. It's May 1st right now. We're right. Let me get it right there. Again, this is not new news. We are coming down, we are turning down. So it makes sense that we're talking about reentry. It just makes sense. It just makes sense that we're talking about how do we go forward. Is it a stampede out or is it the young people go out? Do we open the beaches up, which are pretty healthy places. The light kills the stuff, you know, air kills, you know, humid air kills the stuff. Heat kills this stuff. You know, maybe we need to rethink some of the public policies so that we get younger, healthy people because this curve will not flatten all the way. It's going to percolate throughout the society. And so we want healthier people to get, to get this so we can get that whole herd immunity. We need to be more intentional about our public policy. How do we actually do this? New York again, we know they had that peak, but now it's May 1st. New York has kind of come down a ton with their new cases. They've done a great job. I mean, New York was our Lombardy, Italy. They got clobbered and yet no one died from lack of access to ventilators or healthcare. And I think that's a huge, a huge plus, a huge win. Now how do we move forward? But every state is different. This is California. I just want to move so you can see California at the top here. Yeah, see California right there. See? Oh my gosh, look how flat this was. They didn't even come close to needing their hospital capacity. That is absolutely astounding. For the most Populous state in the country. Let's look at Florida, the oldest state in the country. Not much difference. So why is this New York, why is this California and why is this Florida within New York, New York City represented one third of the population. Most of the cases in the country were concentrated in that area. It's a very densely populated place that has an amazing subway system which is a great way to transmit this virus. And it never closed. Subway system. It wasn't until this past week that you started limiting the subway system. Georgia's reentering into this week being next week. You see that May 1st, here we go. They're right there. I mean they never really had a big peak. The purple thing is, was their expected case hits never really happened. So they're starting to reenter as well. Theirs looks a little worse than Florida, a little worse than California, which is interesting because they are not a super populous state. But again, they have Atlanta. Most of state's population is in that Atlanta area. And you're gonna, if you start looking at the numbers, you'll start seeing this theme of population centers and certain states. I live in Virginia and we don't really have a population center per se. We have Northern Virginia, we have the Norfolk, Suffolk area. I live in central Virginia, which is actually a not a pop, it's a population center per se. But compared to the rest of state, pretty minimal. It'll be interesting to see how my state, hey look, there's my state, Virginia again. We see a little more of a peak. Okay, okay, that's fair enough. But nothing crazy. And we have actually we're coming back down. We never even got close to hitting our capacity. So these are all good things. So what's the point? The point is it seems about appropriate for us to have some kind of plan for reentry. Whether that is just young healthy people going to work, just opening up your parks and beaches are a great place where people can go out, get in the sun, boost immune system, get happy, get a little social awareness. The UV radiation from the light actually kills viral particles, so does heat. That actually there's a reason why flu and viral illnesses disappear in the summertime and pop up in the wintertime. So things from our public policy needs to be a little more, a little more logical maybe. But what I like to do going forward, way forward. So this is kind of what we've been talking about throughout, you know, on public policy, prevention, these things we've already talked about on our COVID 19 survival guide, which are on our website. What I'D like to do is now start focusing more on treatment. These are all the treatments to date that I've been able to find literature on. And look at that. That is a lot of stuff we have not been talking a whole lot about. Favipavir. We've not been talking about nanozoxanide. I actually did a study on that one. Tranexamic acid, etovaquine. These are all things that we have the literature and data on that actually can treat this acute illness. So what I'd like to start doing going forward is just to start walking through some of these to say, hey, this is what this does. This is the data just inform you that there is hope if you do get sick. You know that 80% of us that get sick, we should be doing the prevention right now. Sleep, nutrition, vitamin D, C, all these things. Appropriate nutrition, you know, if you have a sauna, sauna, therapy, hydrotherapy with your shower. These are all things we've talked about before. So I'd like to discuss. And that's things we should be doing now to boost our immune system. The treatments we'll be talking about, if you do get sick and get hospitalized, these are the things that we'll be using for you. Or even as we learn, we might start some of these things as preventative on older, sicker people. That's some things that are being studied right now. This is a. This is in progress. We're still learning. A lot of you have asked a lot of questions, which is great. We'll be answering those questions soon, next few days. Actually, over the weekend, I'm hoping to put out a few things, answering those questions, putting up a video with that. Please continue to put your questions out. It's great getting the feedback on my end to know what people are concerned about, what you want to know about it. Actually, it's impossible for me to secure all the literature because it's impossible. So it's great to have other people looking out there to ask me questions because sometimes that does show me there are other things out there and kind of redirect some of my research. That's great to have that resource. I do appreciate that. But as well, hopefully this is helping everybody to kind of wrap their brains a little more fully around what's going on from a health perspective as well as a public policy perspective. Everybody stay safe, be well, continue to follow us, continue to share this information. I'm just trying to get good, useful data out there that's objective. If you feel that that's the case that this is helpful information, please share it. That's how we get this out there is by sharing it. It's not by looking for COVID 19 therapy, but it's by actually you sharing what information you feel is useful. And if your friends and family feel so that, then they share it as well. My patients have overwhelmingly told me they feel like this is helpful. They feel like this is soothing and calming, that they feel like they have a good source of information. And that's what's keeping me going, is knowing that it's actually helping people. It's not just, you know, stirring the pot, so to speak. So hopefully this is helpful. Please, can you follow us like us on Facebook, Instagram. Our website has a whole host of resources with diet, nutrition. And one of my goals is once we go through the treatments is also circle back around, because what we're going to be talking about all this summer is how do we prevent this, and if we get this, how do we maintain our immune system? And then if we get sick, when do we go to the hospital? And at that point in time, what will they be doing there? And I think having a more holistic, complete view of this will help everybody just as well to get through this. We're going to get through this together. We're also going to get through this being educated, informed, and just keeping our heads in the game. Everybody take care, have a great weekend. Or whenever you listen to this and talk with you soon.
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