YouTube video by Alberto Costa ("Don't buy gold NOW!") analyzing a recent gold rally (using the GLD ETF) and advising viewers not to buy at current highs. The presenter shows price action from about 123 up to a high near 146.82 starting around early June, highlights moving-average alignment (20, 40 exponential; 50, 100, 150, 200 simple dailies) as a sign of strong momentum, but warns the price is far above averages and likely to snap back (it retraced to ~141). The recommendation: avoid buying at the peak, wait for a retracement toward moving averages as a better entry; a follow-up video will cover bonds.
Questions this video answers
GLD (an ETF tracking gold).
From around 123 up to a high of 146.82 (the presenter says "almost 47").
Hi. In this video we are going to talk about gold. Why? Well, if you look at the chart you will realize that in the last months gold has been rallying a lot. And we can see from here around the beginning of June this year the price started to go up. And from around 123 we reach 146, almost 47. And by the way, here we are looking at GLD, that is an ETF tracking gold. Of course you can look at futures and other things but let's look at this one to see what happened. So the idea is that the gold, if we go back was in a kind of, I would say not really clear phase, consolidating more or less. And then eventually, eventually there was this moment really on the beginning of June where the price started to going up like crazy. And if you look at these lines, they are the moving averages. I spoke about them in a previous video. So the blue One is the 50, yellow 100, green 150 and red 200 daily moving averages. And these two are the short term 20 and 40 exponential. But when you see something like that, when you see an alignment where the shorter term moving averages are above the longer term. So we have the 20, 40, 50, 100, 150, 200. When you have this kind of pattern, it means that the strength is really, really strong. Now there is something that you should check here is that the price, even though it's going up, is quite far from the moving averages. For example, the 50. And what happens when this happens is that the price may snap back. And that's what happened here. For example, you see after this high of 146.82, the price went down to 141. Now the reason why I wanted to show you this is because most people when looking at this chart will feel like, oh yeah, great, it's good the gold is going up so much I need to buy. And the question you should ask yourself is, is now really the right time to buy gold? Now I don't know what is your strategy. But if you buy gold for hedging your equities, your stocks, or maybe you want to buy gold because it's your long term portfolio, in theory you should buy low and sell high, right? That's how you make money. Unless you're doing trading and maybe you want to short. But if you want to buy, the idea is to buy low and sell high. So the question is, do you think that buy now, buying now will mean that you are buying low and we can go even this is five years chart. Do you think if you buy now you are buying low? I will not say so. If you buy now high chance that the price will drop. I don't know when, maybe we keep going up, but when everyone is buying the price will go up as crazy and then at some point when people sell to take profit then it will go down and then you will have the panic selling, right? This is how psychology work for human mind. The fear of missing out the green and then eventually the fear of oh my God, everything is crashing, I have to sell as well. So you end up with buying high and selling low. So again to me this is not the right time to buy gold. If you want to buy gold for hedging or for your long term portfolio, I would rather wait a little when it's retracing at least near the moving average and that may be an entry point for buying gold. In next video I will show you a similar situation for the bonds for the long term bonds because again it has been something where the price was not really moving too much and then starting in June it was really going up probably even more than gold. So for now for gold I will stop here. Again the point is way to buy. Don't be greedy, don't be. Don't let the fear of missing out drive your action but rather be rational and realize that looking at the chart buying here will really mean that you are buying high. So see you at the next video where we will be speaking about bonds.
