YouTube commentary by Alberto Costa (Mar 6, 2022) assessing how the Russia–Ukraine conflict affects commodity prices and investment hedges. He reviews a prior November recommendation to buy a commodities ETF (DBC), noting it rose ~27% in the subsequent three months, discusses gold (≈6% rise since November), recommends waiting for retracements to moving averages before buying, and proposes two additional ideas: a strategic/rare-metals ETF (exposure to metals where Russia is a major exporter) and a high-risk Russia-focused ETF that fell roughly 80–90% (long-term recovery could offer ~8–10x upside but with total-loss risk). Emphasis: hedge, not profit-seeking; risk-management (small positions, wait for reversal).
Questions this video answers
More than 27% higher over about three months.
Approximately 6% higher.
Around 80–90% down from its prior level (speaker estimates ~87–90%).
Potentially about 8–10 times the depressed price (speaker's estimate).
Chapters
Welcome to this new video. I know it has been very long time, I've been very busy with many other things, but it was time to make a new video because of the situation. You probably have seen the news. There is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And regardless of what you think about that, what I want to discuss in this channel is how can we, I wouldn't say profit because it doesn't sound right to speak about profits in this situation, but at least to hedge because the war is already showing that probably the commodities are increasing in price even more and the gas, you know, all the implication of the Russia situation. So what I want to do today is to discuss some of the things that I share in my previous video and also give you some other ideas. If you remember, in November, I think it was end of November last year, I made a video where I said that commodities and gold were quite interesting. Of course I didn't have the crystal ball. I didn't know the war was coming. But at that time, if you look at the chart, this is the dbc, the ETF I suggested and is tracking commodities. We were around this level end of November, so around here, right. And now see what happens. The price is, my God, this, let's see how, how much from here. Yeah, it's more than 27% in these three months it went up more than 27%. Now of course this is because of the uncertainty, the war, the commodities, the prices are going up, but regardless, the trend was still going up. You see if you, if you check from, Even from the 2020, the trend of commodities was clearly going up. That's why at that point I suggested you buying and it turns out it was even better than expected for the wrong reason. Again, I'm not saying that it's good that this conflict is happening because it's more important to have peace rather than to have profit. At least from my point of view. However, what we should ask ourselves is, okay, we know that the prices of gas, for example, of oil are going up. That means we are probably like to spend more in the monthly bill and so on. So how can we edge? And one way to edge is really to buy this etf. Now the price seems to be quite parabolic, so I would wait. A retracement at this point is too far already from the moving averages. If you watch some of my previous video, I said that when the price is going parabolic like that is not really a good time for buying. We should wait for a retracement to the moving average and Then we can maybe enter. What about gold? Gold was the other one I mentioned. So if you look at gold, you see that around November where we, where we made that video, we were in this area and now it went up as well. So if you want to know how much, let's say that we were around here is around 6%, let's say 6%. Not as good as commodities, but still. Okay, so gold is another one of these assets that in times of uncertainty is probably a good option to have. And again, it seems it's going also kind of parabolic, not as much as tbc. But I will still wait for a retracement at this point because you see here there is also some kind of potential resistance level like the 37 something. I would like to see either the candle opening and closing above this level to have more confidence that that level was passed. But I would even more prefer to see the price going closer to one of the key moving averages. So the question is, okay, are we too late? Well, no, I think the price of gold and commodities will still go up. We still need to wait for a small retracement, in my opinion. However, I want to share with you two other ideas that you may consider given the current situation. And the number one is another etf, this one, okay, this is a rare etf, Earth Strategic Metal etf. So if we look at the ETF db, you see here that this is giving you an exposure to a basket of metals, for example, and other things through securities that are involving mining, refining, blah, blah, blah. Why this is interesting to me because if you look at Russia, Russia is one of the main producers and one of the countries that export the largest amount of metals. And if you consider that they started to put sanctions, you can expect that their exportation will have a slowdown. That means the offer will be going down. That means the demand will not be fulfilled so easily. And this will probably drive the price up. So my idea is, okay, looking at the chart, it seems that the price is kind of not really in a great trend. There is here some support level it seems is going down around here. But this is one of the situations where we are not too late. I may put some money. Actually, I did already. I put some money in this etf, again with the expectation that if Russia is going to have all these sanctions for a while, this may have an impact on the price of metals as well. And since they are exporting a lot and this ETF is tracking that sector, this may be interesting. The last one I want to Share with you is more risky and is actually Russia itself. So there are ETFs, for example, this one, not surprisingly from 50 something after the war and all the sanction, you see the price basically went down by. I don't know, what is this? 80%, 90% by a lot. Right? So from the top now we are down. Yeah, 90%. Almost 87, 88. So what is the idea here? If you think that Russia can go default and fail because of this sanction, okay, fine. But if you think it's not the case and then eventually they will recover, then what I will do, I will wait this panic selling to end and when I see some kind of reversal, I may enter a small position first and then maybe add more. What is the idea here? That when this is over, if the price is going up to the previous level, this is like potentially something like eight, ten times more. Okay, so it's a risky bet because you say, hey, maybe I put there a few thousand dollars, fine, I may lose everything. If really there is a default and bankrupt of Russia and you know, they, they are not able to recover. But if you believe that they can recover and they will, then you can potentially have a 10 times gain. So the risk reward to me, if you can invest a sum that you are accepting to lose is not bad. And this is one of the opportunities that I wanted to share. So to recap Russia, but only wait when the situation will stabilize and you see some kind of reversal. For now you see still dropping, dropping, dropping these other etf. We are not late yet. And again the idea is that probably there will be an increase of this as well, the price of metals and so on, that they are used by everyone to produce everything. So it's not that you say, hey, we don't need iron, we don't need the metal. No, you need them to create everything, right? So it's quite important. And probably since Russia is one of the main producer, anything that you do to Russia will have an impact on the price and again wait for the gold. At this stage I will wait for a retracement to one of the moving averages and DBC as well. Wait for a retracement. I will say if you follow the indications in my video in end of November last year, I'm very happy. I think you made quite a good profit. If not, remember this, opportunities in the market always appear and disappear. It's not because you miss one that you will have no other opportunity. So don't let the fear of missing out drive your decision. Realize that we are in this situation right now and check the stocks check this channel. I will do my best to put videos more often as you know I'm switching from a trading to a more long term investing style but when there are opportunities like that I think it's worth discussing making a video so that you guys can also profit hopefully or if not at least use the market to hedge against the increase of price that you will probably start to see in the bill in the gas when you go to the gas station you know that you have seen already that there is a lot of uncertainty about what Russia will do with the gas supply so I think it's very likely to see a trend like that continuing for for a few weeks months potentially. With that I thank you for watching this video. If you have any comments any suggestion feel free to write put a like if you like it share if you think that other people can find this useful and as usual see you next time.
