YouTube video by Alberto Costa (uploaded Nov 17, 2019) analyzing how the Hong Kong protests affected Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (Mapletree NACT). The speaker describes damage to a Mapletree-owned mall in Hong Kong, reports a near 5% price drop and heavy selling (≈9.2 million shares), notes the mall contributes ~62% of the REIT’s net property income, and states the unit price was around S$1.16. The video’s main advice: avoid panic selling, assess whether the news is temporary vs fundamental, wait for price stabilization/support before buying more, and base decisions on REIT fundamentals.
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Welcome to this new video. If it's the first time you come to this channel, thank you. Please subscribe and also hit the bell on the right. So you will be notified every time I upload a new video. The topic of this video is quite hot and not just because you see fire here. Probably you are aware of the protests that are currently happening in Hong Kong. Actually is already a few months and today we want to analyze a reit. A REIT that you can trade in the Singapore market. And you may wondering so why should I be concerned about the protest in Hong Kong if I'm trading Singapore stocks? The point is this, when you are trading a stock, remember that there is a business behind and the business may not be in the country where you are trading. Like in this case, the Mapletree Nact, that is North Asia Commercial Trust has some properties in Hong Kong and especially one of the malls they have was damaged by the protest. That's why you need to be careful when the stock you buy is related to a business that is overseas. Because news like that may affect the price and also because of the currency. That's another risk to consider because in other countries they may have other currencies. And this means that potentially if there is some kind of movement of the strength, let's say of the currency, if it's becoming weaker, for example, it can affect the profitability of the business. Now let's look at what happened here. Mapletree and act down almost 5% after damage. Now let's have a look at what happened here. It's quite clear from the picture you see a poor Christmas tree burning and then this glass broken. And if we have a look at the news, what they say is that the festival world. Reed, sorry, mold. That is one of the properties of this maple tree wreath was damaged -5% almost and 9.2 million units of volume. This is a huge volume. And actually they say it made this three reed one of the most heavily traded counter on the Singapore Stock exchange. So it means that many people were selling because afraid of this. But we can come back to this later about how we should not be affected by things like that. Now what happened? Well, we can have a look here. Again they say they damage the glass and then the Christmas tree and luckily nobody was injured. But they had to close the mall and it's still closed I think. Now why is this important? Because if you look here, they say that basically 62% of the net property income. Now net property income, if you don't know is the amount of money that they get. And then this is basically the main source of money that will be used to pay to you as a shareholder, the dividends. That should be the reason why you buy REITs. Now, 62% of these is coming from this REIT. So you can imagine that this means for the next payment of dividends, this news will have a bad impact. You may be getting less dividends. So whenever I see a news like that, first of all I want to check because to me there is a big difference. If the price went down because of some fundamental reason or serious reason. So that if I bought because I believe that the REIT was good and something bad happened, I may change my idea or if it's for some temporary news. And this seems to be a temporary news because we don't know for how long the protest will go on, but I don't think they will destroy malls every day. The next thing you should do after you see something like that is let's have a look at the chart. So as usual for Singapore market, I use chart Nexus and this is the chart of Mapletree nac. So here you see pretty clearly the drop in price. And now is at 1.16. So what to do? That's a big question. I want to distinguish between two cases. Number one, let's say you already have shares, okay? And then you see something like that. So as we have analyzed together, the news is bad, yes, but it doesn't seem to be something that is permanent and especially is not something that is affecting directly the financial strength of the reit. So if you have shares of this REIT and you still believe that the fundamentals are good, then personally, I will not sell now. Because selling now, and remember, the 9.2 million share volume is probably panic selling. And is what I was saying before, if you sell because of this reason is a very bad strategy to make money. Because whenever there is a bad reason that is having a negative impact on your, on your shares, then you sell. Then most likely you will sell low, maybe lower than what you buy. And you know very well if you buy at a higher price than the selling price, you lose money. So what to do then? I would in this case wait, because it's true. Some people may say, well, if I don't sell, maybe it can be an opportunity to buy more at a discount price. Now this may make sense, especially if you still think that the fundamentals of the REIT are good at the same time. Because the news happened so recently, I would wait maybe a couple of weeks to see the Price stabilizing because maybe there may be more panic selling, the price can go even lower. And also if you look at the chart, it doesn't mean it doesn't seem that this level where we are now 116 is a very strong support level. If it was dropping around this area 1.1 1.0708 around here maybe yes. But currently it seems like a free fall. And you know there is this sentence that say never try to get a falling knife. So let's wait and see if there is some kind of support. And if we see the price bouncing back then yes, it can be a good opportunity for entering again provided you still think the fundamentals are good. And I made some video about what I look in read to decide if fundamentally they are strong. You can have a look and if you have question, of course you can also write me a comment. We can discuss about that. Now if instead you don't have you don't have the read, then again the same suggestion applied is a potential buy. Maybe just wait and see what happens next. But the main point I want to make here is this. What you should not do is to let your fear guide your actions. And that's probably what happened. Again, I want to stress this point because it seems obvious, but it's very important. When you see this happening and then you see your account going down and you start to be afraid, don't do anything before doing anything, just stop and reflect. Think logically what you should do and more important what you should not do. Because I strongly believe that many people sold for fear panic. Selling that volume is also because of the that. And again, as I said, if you want to sell this way is not good reason to do it because eventually you will lose money, right? It would have been different if the drop is because of some fundamental reason so you don't think the business behind the stock is good anymore, then it's a different story. But in this case it seems to be just a temporary bad news. Again, we don't know. I will wait a little more but it doesn't seem to be a news that will affect the long term profitability of the reit. So with this I would like to thank you again for watching this video. And again, if you are not a subscriber, please subscribe and also hit the bell on the right so you will be notified of new videos. And if you have comments feel free to write. And any question you will have about these or about reads I will be happy to answer. And with that I conclude the video and as usual, see you next time.
