What Bitcoin’s Halving Changes and What It Doesn’t
In this livestream, Alexander Lorenzo (joined by a participant referred to as Speaker B) delivers a comprehensive, conversational tutorial on Bitcoin’s halving and its broader market implications. He begins by framing the series as a daily, beginner‑friendly deep‑dive into crypto fundamentals, emphasizing the danger of uninformed investors putting life savings into the space. Lorenzo then explains why Bitcoin’s halving is the single most important driver of market cycles: the halving automatically reduces the issuance of new BTC every 10‑15 minutes, creating a predictable scarcity event that the entire crypto market reacts to. He outlines how Bitcoin’s dominant liquidity and brand awareness cause altcoins to “follow” its price movements, but because altcoins have far lower liquidity they experience amplified price swings—effectively providing higher leverage for traders. He introduces the “next‑best‑thing” narrative, showing how market makers and large‑cap projects deliberately try to dethrone Bitcoin by promoting altcoins, especially around halving periods. Lorenzo demystifies mining: blocks are secured by a global network of computers (miners) that solve a randomized cryptographic puzzle, earning a block reward (currently ~3.125 BTC ≈ $260 k). He explains mining pools, the economics of large versus small buys in liquidity pools, and why miners are incentivized to keep the network secure. The halving cuts the block reward in half, tightening scarcity and prompting a year‑ahead buying frenzy as miners anticipate reduced cash flow. He contrasts Bitcoin’s algorithmic scarcity with the Federal Reserve’s discretionary monetary policy, highlighting Bitcoin’s trustless, open‑source nature versus fiat’s opaque control. Looking ahead, Lorenzo notes the next halving is projected for February 2028, and discusses the eventual transition from block rewards to transaction‑fee revenue once the 21 million BTC cap is reached (circa 2140). He wraps up by presenting a repeatable investment strategy: buy low‑liquidity altcoins that track Bitcoin’s cycle, ride the amplified moves, and exit near the halving‑induced bottom, a pattern he claims is far more predictable than any stock‑market cycle. Throughout, the tone remains informal, enthusiastic, and instructional, with occasional humor and rhetorical questions to engage the audience.
Chapters
And liftoff. What's going on, guys? Welcome back for another livestream. Sorry I missed yesterday. It's hard to do that every 3 to 4 PM Eastern Standard Time, but we're here today and we're going to continue through this process week after week, 3 to 4 PM Eastern Standard Time, breaking down simple crypto concepts, really important crypto concepts, because I realize a lot of people don't know crypto but they're putting their whole life savings into it and that doesn't really match up. So we will be here every day from 3 to 4 PM Eastern Standard Time until we have broken down the entire, basically the entire market and everything that's needed to be understood so you can understand how to invest in crypto, if that makes sense. If you guys are new here, do me a favor, like the video, share it with somebody, tell someone that we're doing this. I got to get started quickly because I was a little bit late today. We have a lot of meetings and I kind of just do this for the general good of people. There's really no— I don't have a logical explanation, uh, but because you could look at ChatGPT, but obviously it'll be different here Because I'm giving you kind of my perspective of crypto, if that makes sense. So if you guys appreciate that, of course subscribe, follow wherever you're at because we're all over all different types of social medias, share it with your friend, like the video, etc., etc. Let's get into it. So today we're going to be talking about one of the most important subjects in crypto, which is the Bitcoin halving. Now the reason why this is very, very important, and what I'm going to do here is actually open up A new board, if I could do that. Can I do that? Yes, I can. The reason why it's so important because the entire market moves off the Bitcoin halving. Okay, so what I mean by that is to give you a general picture, and you guys kind of saw a different one, but to just give you a general picture, it goes like this. So like Bitcoin does that basically. Okay. Now, that's the price of Bitcoin, but let's just put like BTC. But what happens is because Bitcoin is so big and because there's so much liquidity, there's so much cash in Bitcoin, and because it was the first one, and because when it comes to the marketing everybody knows what Bitcoin is, and just the sheer fact that it's the first and most dominant coin, everything follows Bitcoin. So for example, It's not exactly like this, but basically it's like this where you'll see— let's switch the color to blue. Okay, that's definitely not right. You'll see all coins do the same thing, right? You'll see them kind of work. And the reason I put it like that— let me go back real quick— the reason I kind of put it like that, because they don't exactly match perfectly. There's a little bit of a lag. It's kind of like this. If I really put it, it's kind of like that, like towards the end. So what's the beauty of that, right? The beauty of that, and this is like altcoins. So altcoin, the definition of an altcoin is anything that is not Bitcoin. So that's the first one. It's a little weird. But it's anything that's not Bitcoin, but then some people kind of don't consider Ethereum as an altcoin. So you have Bitcoin, you have ETH, because of how big Ethereum is. So really, the definition is anything that's not Bitcoin, but the real kind of weird definition is anything that's like super small. Does that make sense?
Mm-hmm.
So, um, yeah, so it's— so Ethereum is technically an altcoin, but people don't consider it an altcoin because of how big it is. If that makes sense. All right, that's a quick side story. So basically, the liquid— okay, I'm telling you, this is like the bit since the beginning of crypto is like very— I don't want to say like hidden wisdom, it's kind of known, but like nobody's really put their words to it. But the name of the game for all of the market makers, all of the people with a lot of money, is to siphon people and liquidity away from Bitcoin into their products. That's kind of the name of the game. Like I'm telling you, if you look at all the big dogs, everyone, the liquidity pools, you can see the timing of their campaigns. You can see the timing of like everything. Like they try to— there's been purposeful attacks. Like for example, like, um, I believe if I remember correctly, there's a long story about this, but there's timing where like at the bottom of the market, you have to kind of take my word for it, but at the bottom of the market They'll purposely try to hit Bitcoin's narrative hard. You'll see a whole bunch of trash talkers on Bitcoin, like purposely trying to kill it and trying to get Ethereum to surpass it. Like you'll see purposeful campaigns, purposeful, like real people all coming against Bitcoin at the exact time to try to kill it. They call it the— they call it the— that's a switching. I forgot what it was called. The flippening. They call it the flippening. So it's this point of inception to where Bitcoin and Ethereum flip and it stays permanent. It's like, basically I'm telling you, and I'll explain why, I'll explain why they do this, but just know that all of the big dogs that have the most money that control Ethereum and altcoins, they're all trying to beat Bitcoin. They're trying to beat Bitcoin. They're trying to surpass it. They're trying to take the dominance over the world. Why? Because if crypto is like the first innovative technology we've ever had that, you know, has blockchain built in and all these crazy features that we've been talking about, decentralization, etc., etc., like the number one in the world, like, will take— like monopolize. It will take them— If you look at systems, for example, in general, if you look at telephone systems, if you look at power grids in general, like even internet systems, Typically, there's a conglomerate or a small group that take up like 98% of everything. So if they could assert their dominance early on, as it extrapolates into the next 50 years and gets bigger and bigger, I mean, bro, it's like they're going for it all. Does that make sense? So they're trying to do everything in their power to basically take out Bitcoin, and they're trying to make Ethereum or even their own altcoin the dominant figure. That is their goal: siphon liquidity, siphon users, siphon perception, siphon everything, and beat Bitcoin is the name of the game. Just remember that. So because that's the truth, I know it is, the altcoins follow Bitcoin. So like if the price of Bitcoin goes up, the narrative is next best thing. A narrative is a story in people's minds that hold weight. That's what a narrative is. A narrative is a story, right? So it just so happens to be next best thing is one of the most powerful narratives. It sounds simple, but it's one of the most powerful narratives in all of crypto. Next best thing. Next best thing, right? It happens in meme coins. For example, the first meme coin that ever existed was Dogecoin. Dogecoin was the number one meme coin in the world. It didn't do that as well as Shiba Inu, which was the next best thing. The whole entire narrative of Shiba Inu as a Dogecoin killer. It was literally called the Dogecoin killer. That was the narrative. That was the story. And it did better than Dogecoin by percentages. So next best thing is really, really, really powerful. And so what they did is they tried to make the next best thing, and then they're trying to kill it. Does that make sense?
Mm-hmm.
Now, the reason why this is so powerful, and I'm going to keep breaking down the layers, the reason why this is so powerful is because altcoins produce more returns. Significantly. So he asked me this this morning, kind of. So like, for example, if Bitcoin goes— I'm just making up numbers— if Bitcoin goes up 5x, then altcoins have like, I think the last time I looked at it, anywhere from a 2 to 4 ratio. So it depends on the altcoins, obviously, but like the main altcoins will probably do like a 20x. Like, does that make sense? Or a 15x. So say— so the beauty of this is you have the same market direction But then you have a higher leverage multiple. Does that make sense? So now you have a bigger— you got 15x with the same, the same direction of Bitcoin. Does that make sense? Has a higher leverage multiple because it has a smaller liquidity? It's correct. It has smaller liquidity, it's way newer, and therefore it moves faster. It moves faster in both directions. Low liquidity will get you a high pump, but it'll also get you a big dump. So it just— bigger range, because the lack of liquidity is the reason why it's moving. So there's lack of liquidity. If you sell into lack of liquidity, big dump. If you buy into lack of liquidity, big pump. It's the same thing. So low liquidity doesn't mean that the coin is just going to go up. It just means it moves faster. It doesn't even really mean it's cheap, because it could get cheaper fast, right? So you're saying that When it pumps, it just the pump doesn't mean that it's going to keep going. The pump just means there's a good indication it's going to crash because then people are going to sell. Yeah, the pump not always, but yeah, I get what you're saying. The pump though, so so like the low liquidity. I can I can kind of explain that a little bit. So like I always explain it with a pool, right? So you have the one big guy, right? This guy's here. Dude, that's a horrible picture. We have small liquidity pool. We have a big pool. This guy jumps in. to this pool here, I want you to think of the guy as a buy or sell. In the big pool, you'll probably get a little splash. But in this pool, the whole thing's about to get displaced. You ever seen like the big fat guy jumping into the pool? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's basically, that's basically the gist here with liquidity pools. So the thing is, is that that goes in both directions. So if the, when the big fat guy gets out of the pool, what happens to the liquidity? It just like settles and goes low. So, so like, yeah, so it's not really about the buy or sell, it's just really about the buy in comparison to the liquidity. Does that make sense?
Yeah.
So you could have a situation where you have a lot of liquidity, but there's just— the buy is so big that it displaces the pool. So like, for example, like a higher liquidity position that we would know of would be like $100 million in the pool. That's like a higher— I would say medium-high liquidity, right? That's a lot of liquidity. If I put in $100,000, I ain't gonna move that pool. But if I'm a big dog and I put in $80 million, I will displace that pool as much displacement as a smaller pool. Does that make sense?
Yes.
So it's not— it's the buy in comparison to liquidity. And just in trading, it just so happens that the lower liquidity, there's a higher chance of displacement. Nobody just drops like $100 mil into a coin like that. Like some of them do, but they do it very strategically. They actually do it in a way that doesn't— they try not to displace the pool. They actually try not to displace the pool. They'll buy it in increments. Like if they want to buy a big buy, they'll set a bot to buy in increments. Actually, that's what I do. So this is actually a strategy, by the way, for lower liquidity pools. When you buy, you don't want to just put your whole money in. You buy, you wait for the pool to settle, you buy, you wait for the pool to settle, you buy, you wait for the pool to settle. So it doesn't move the price as you're buying, so you can get a better price. That's crazy.
Yep.
That is crazy. The stuff, it gets deep, bro. It gets really deep. So the main purpose is that the reason why these coins, they follow the liquidity of Bitcoin, but they're at a significant higher leverage because of the low liquidity. Does that make sense? Now, Alex, who cares? Okay, so number one, the first point you have to remember is that It moves faster than Bitcoin significantly. Just remember that, okay? It actually— 2 points: follows Bitcoin. You write this down. And moves faster. Wow, you can tell I use, uh, ChatGPT for everything. Moves faster. Does that make sense?
Yes.
Moves faster than Bitcoin. All right, where are we at? So, okay, now the 3rd dimension. Just remember this, guys, please. This is everything, all right? So who knows what the— we talked about the Federal Reserve a little bit. Who can explain to me what the Federal Reserve is? Uh, the Federal Reserve are the ones that pretty much control the finance. Yeah, I'm gonna put it simple. It's a private company Made by a conglomerate of bankers that control the supply of money, of USD specifically. So they control if there's more money in circulation or there's less money in circulation. There's so many tools, it's not exactly like that, but basically they control, if you would put it simple, the expansion and the contraction of USD. That's what they control. They literally have a lever. They all get together and they can they expand USD or they contract USD. Okay, so that expansion and a contraction is manipulating something that starts with a D. Who can tell me? I'm sorry. Something starts with a D. One word that starts with D and one word that starts with S. The core principles of money. We talked about this like day one or two. We're talking about the core principles. What did I say? When there's something, the money kind of gets attracted to it. It starts with an S. What was it? D and S squared. Come on, the core principles of money. If you expand an asset class, what happens to the value of it? If you expand, like, it goes down. The value goes down. So what are you manipulating? You're manipulating scarcity, right? And demand. Does that make sense? You're manipulating scarcity and demand. Remember these 2 variables we keep talking about? Remember the first lessons? Malice, you gotta watch the first lessons. You're on vacation, you got to watch them because they talk about these core principles of money. So if you expand that thing, then you're diluting the value of the currency, right? So what are they basically doing? They're either increasing the value of the currency or decreasing the value of the currency, right?
Mm-hmm.
Okay, so that actually exists in Bitcoin, if you didn't know. The same thing, identical. It's called the Bitcoin halving. And so the Bitcoin halving I want to get an orange. Oh, we don't have orange.
Ha!
Yeah, it's the right side. Yeah, so Bitcoin halving— this is definitely not the area it actually is on the chart, by the way. We'll show you the actual area it is. But it's this— it's basically financial policy automatically built into the asset class. Its code is law. So what they do is they don't actually expand or contract the supply, but they decrease something called the issuance. So what that means is basically how much is issued every 10 to 15 minutes. Remember we talked about this? What happens every 10 to 15 minutes on Bitcoin? 1.5 million. When it comes together, you guys are going to freak out. I promise. Once it all comes together, you're going to be like, oh snap, what the heck? Remember, what is in these blocks? Transactions. Great. So put T for transactions. So what is a block? Like, for example, I'll put like a half block here, right? So this is like the current state of time. There's 10 to 15 minutes. The next block is being what? It's not confirmed yet, but it's being what? It's being built, like right? Like in a 10 to 15 minute time horizon, there's like a new block being created. The jumble of transactions are coming into this block, and it's not confirmed yet. Who confirms it? The dang it forgot the name of the dudes. Starts with an M. Who confirms it? Who confirms the block? There's a whole bunch.
Remember.
You got it like that, and then you got a whole bunch of computers.
Miners.
Yes, there's a whole bunch of computers, that is a bad computer. They're all pointed at this, and they're all confirming the security of the blob of transactions. Great, these transactions are great, right? And there's, imagine like supercomputers from all over the world are all pointed at this one 15-minute time horizon for what? Why are they doing that? Securing it, but also what? Y'all better get it right. The future's on the line. I can't think today. Come on. Why? They're securing it and what else? What is— what's happening? Why would I— They're getting more coins. Confirming and what? Yes. So they're getting paid. Why would I spend— sit there and make a mining farm for free and spend all this electricity? I have no reason to do that. They're getting paid. There's a certain amount of Bitcoin that gets rewarded out if you're the winner. So if Let's get a little deeper. This is good because you should know this. Basically, the revolution of crypto, simply put, it's called cryptographic technology.
Right.
So cryptographic is a super smart word for puzzle. OK? So imagine a puzzle, but to solve the puzzle, it takes an extreme amount of computational power. And the way that it gets solved is a random— it's random. It's literally guessing. Imagine a computer is going to try to solve a puzzle, but instead of being strategic, it's just straight brute force guessing. Straight brute force guessing, and it's trying to guess this long string of characters, it's super complex, that you cannot guess unless this is the best way to guess, is brute force guessing. That's what it's doing, it's trying to, I think, I don't know the word of it, but it's encrypted. I think they're trying to decrypt it, I think that's the word. I don't know if that's actually technically true. Because I don't go to the deep. I just understand the fundamentals in relation to finance. So I don't need to know all the details. But it's cryptographic technology. So imagine a puzzle that's unsolvable by humans. And the only way you could solve it is by going straight brute force. And that's why I call it lottery, because it actually is a lottery. It is actually random. And the only way you can stack the odds in your favor is what to win the lottery? Go ahead. Either a super strong computer Share or join in with other computers in a pool. Correct, so you're going too far, but yeah, super strong computers. So if I have more computational power, if I get like super, if I start stacking, like I got warehouses of computers, I'm probably gonna solve the lottery first, and if I solve the lottery first, I get the Bitcoin. Now what he's saying is because it is so hard to compete with the thousands and millions of computers, what they do is they get into mining pools, and they all combine their power into a pool. And so what is the reward now? The reward is 3.21 or 3.125. Right now the reward of Bitcoin that comes out is 3.125. How much is that USD? Bitcoin's worth what? I think Bitcoin's worth like—
Like $83.
So it's $83 times 3 is what? That's like $100 or $200. What is it?
$265,000.
So $265,000 worth of USD pops out every 10 to 15 minutes. If I'm part of a pool, they combine all their computational power. Let's say there's only 5 of us in the pool. There's way more, but let's say there's only 5. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We combine our power to try to win. If we win, that reward of $260,000-whatever gets split between the 5. So there's 2 ways you can mine. You can put your measly $10,000 setup and mine for 10 years, never win, not once, and then one time you hit and it makes up for all the 10 years. Or you can get smaller increments by combining to a pool and getting like $50 a day because it keeps winning but it's splitting it amongst the pool. Does that make sense?
Yeah.
You guys get it?
Yeah.
Okay, so now you understand. We can go like, we could talk about pools for like days, but basically There is a lot of serious effort behind just confirming this block. It's absurd. I mean, it's like it's worth a lot of money to the point where they're redoing the grids in America, and El Salvador took their volcanoes and started mining Bitcoin with the power from the volcanoes. Like, is that serious? Go ahead.
Like, who decided that? Like, Bitcoin is like I'm like thinking about it kind of like. Does the US dollar have a consensus that it has value? Because technically, like, it really doesn't have value. They just created code.
Yep. Yeah, so watch this. I'll show you what has value. This is why I told you the world operates off this. So basically, the reason why Bitcoin has value is because there's a piece of paper called the white paper. And on the white paper, it clearly explains the rules of the money. And it's transparent, and it's public, and it cannot be changed. And it just so happens to be that a lot of people agree with that piece of paper; therefore, they agree with Bitcoin. That's really what it is. Now the difference is, is that that you don't have that with the Federal Reserve. So with the Federal Reserve, we don't know. They can hoop. They can switch. There's no plan. They kind of try to like do projections, but it's there's no plan. They can switch anytime they want. A human can decide. Blah, blah, blah. They can do whatever they want. Does that make sense? Do you understand the difference? So in this case, this is why they call it trustless. What is the definition of trustless?
What?
Trustless? Yeah. Trustless. Trustless, you don't trust them. Yeah, so it's basically the first ever thing we've had to where you do not have to trust a human and it works. Again, that is the core of all of this. You have to understand. That is the core of all of this. Listen, think about it. Like, you don't have to trust it because it's actually fully transparent. Like, it actually is. Like, you can see it. You can audit the code. It's called open source. Open source means there is nothing hidden in the code base. Actually, what you could do is actually copy the code base, click one button, and duplicate the entire code base if you wanted to.
Hmm.
But nobody would buy your stuff, and it would be valueless, but you could. It is called open source trustless, meaning anyone can see it, anyone can verify it, and therefore they have come to an agreement that is more trustworthy than humans hiding the heck out of stuff. Does that make sense? Do you guys get it? That's why it has value. Does that make sense to anybody? Yes.
Okay, cool.
All right, so bringing it back to the original topic, we have a whole bunch of people trying to support this trustless network, And when they get confirmed, 3.125 comes out. That 3.125 is worth $260K. People get paid. Therefore, all these people that are getting paid this entire time and funding their entire business, millions and millions of dollars coming out at this point of inception here, that gets cut in half. So it goes from 3.125 divided by 2 for me. What's the next reward?
1.625. halving? In dollars?
Yeah.
$1.56.
$1.5 what?
62.
So next Bitcoin halving, which is projected— the reason why it's projected is because— and I'll explain why it's projected— no one knows the exact day. You can guesstimate the exact day, and the guess gets more accurate as you get closer. So there is predictability, way more than the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve, you can't guess nothing. Go ahead.
Isn't it based off of like— is it based off of like A certain amount of blocks?
Correct, because it's not— it's 10 to 15. Why is it not just 10? If it was just 10, we would know exactly when the next Bitcoin halving is, because the Bitcoin halving is like there's a certain amount of blocks that need to happen, and then the Bitcoin halving comes in and slashes the reward.
Why?
Who can guess why it's 10 to 15 and not like a definitive 10 minutes? Down to the minute? Who can guess? Because of the volatility? No, the volatility has to do with prices, the mechanics. This will work with or without the price. If you can answer this and it's not Jesse, I would be very surprised. Can you answer this?
I'm thinking.
You can't? Okay, let's see if you can answer it. This is like a big brain answer, and you guys have enough information to answer it. Ask the question again. If you— the 10— why is it 10 to 15 minutes? And not a definitive 10 minutes?
Because then we would know when the halving happens every time?
No. I mean, that's true, but that's not the reason.
Is it because the computer is fighting over computing it?
Like, basically it's a randomized puzzle, so you never know how long the puzzle is going to take to solve? Correct. Because it's a randomized string of characters. So like, for example, if we have more computational power, like significantly, what we call hash rate, So if you have a whole bunch more hash rate, let's say we right now 4x the hash rate of the entire network, will this time increase or decrease?
Decrease.
Correct, because we have more computational power trying to solve the puzzle. It won't be perfect like that because it is randomized. But so as we go further, what if that's the case? As we go further and there's a fixed amount of blocks, listen, there's a fixed amount of blocks, And the Bitcoin halving, what should happen to the time between the Bitcoin halvings? It gets smaller. Correct! Because there's more computers trying to solve the puzzle. Does that make sense? Now you'll see why this is super crazy. So like, there's, there's so much, like all these calculations that you guys figured out, but you can't calculate the human mind and the deviousness of people's greed, can you? You see how you're kind of putting stuff together and it's like, dang?
Yeah.
Okay, that's why there's always a top and a bottom in between a Bitcoin halving, because there's predictability. So when you cut this into— what is it, 1.562? When you cut that, what happens? We talked about how the Federal Reserve manipulates the expansion and the contraction of the supply, and those 2 variables manipulate demand and scarcity. Demand and scarcity manipulate price. Remember we talked about this? Okay, so if I slash this in half, this is the issuance. This is the issuance of Bitcoin, meaning the amount of Bitcoin that comes out 10 to 15 minutes, it gets slashed in half. What do you guys think is going to happen? He's okay with being wrong. The price will decrease. If you're getting slashed in half, what would happen to scarcity? What happens to scarcity when you, when you have less of the supply?
People are going to start pulling out.
Yes. Or no, no, no, no, no. Sorry, I can't confirm that.
People, people, it will start to go up.
Okay, if you got— yes, if you have a, if you have 1,000 pair of Jordans and you're like— and then there's another guy that has a million pair of Jordans, which one's going to be more valuable with the same demand? If you have the same demand, the same exact demand, 1,000 a million, which one has more value?
The thousand.
The thousand, because there's less, it's scarce, it's a scarce commodity, like people want the shoes. It might even go up substantially more because they might have a bidding war to make it— they have a bidding war for the— okay, does that make sense? So scarcity increases on the issuance of Bitcoin because all these freaking computers are all fighting for now a less piece of the pie. They're all shot at this one Bitcoin, right? They're all fighting for this one 15-minute moment, and it just gets shut in half. Does that make sense?
Yeah.
So what happens is they start buying the heck out of it, and everybody starts freaking out about a year before the Bitcoin halving. Approximately a year before the Bitcoin halving, which the next Bitcoin halving is projected for— listen, are you listening? All your jobs, all your jobs are at stake here. February 2028 is the next Bitcoin halving. Are you putting two and two together? Who has put, except for Jesse, put two and two together?
We're almost at a year.
We're almost at a year. So what's going to happen in a year? What's going to happen at the point of where there's a year and then everybody's like, dang, in a year's time, the, the, the, it's going to get slashed in half. Everybody's going to start, what are they going to do? They're going to start buying. Like they do every time, because scarcity is about to increase substantially, because the miners now have less, literally half of the amount of Bitcoin, half is what they're getting now. That means their cash flow gets cut in half. Does that make sense? Imagine if you're working a job and your cash flow gets cut in half. Like, they're going to freak out.
Yeah.
They just put— and these guys are stuck because they just put up like $10 million into these machines that only work. for Bitcoin and that's it. They don't work for nothing else. It just works for Bitcoin. They're called mining rigs, and they, they produce hash power that don't even work for AI. That hash power is not transferable to the AI agents in the data centers. It only works for Bitcoin. Go ahead.
I was going to say, so the— going back to your first slide, so then the reason why all coins follow Bitcoin is because of the supply and demand. So then Because they see Bitcoin going down, then they'll start selling or something? And then if they see it go up, then they'll start buying?
Because they're trying to follow. They're all— everyone's following the same cycle.
So it's not like they're connected, it's like the people who make it?
Correct. The people that make it are like, oh my gosh, Bitcoin halving is coming soon, let's make an altcoin and try to shoot it up with Bitcoin's price. Basically a super simplistic version of it. Okay, does that make sense? All right, any questions? Go ahead.
So I don't know if this is going to detour like big time, but like after so many halvings, eventually isn't there going to be nothing left?
Good question. Now we're getting super crazy. She's actually thinking. Okay, a couple things. Ready? Watch this. She's actually thinking. All right. Isn't that what happens to the stock market? Not necessarily. I'll explain. So supply, What is supply? How much Bitcoin is available. Okay, but that's not, that's not, that's not what's happening. The issuance is getting cut in half, not the supply. So the supply of Bitcoin is 21 million. There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin ever in existence. It is a finite supply which does not exist in the natural world. It is programmed a an artificial thing in reality. There's nothing in the world that's finite. Do you understand? Can you guys name something that's finite?
That's forever?
That's like, there's just a max supply and nothing more is ever going to be created ever again. Name something that's finite.
Love.
Nah, man, you can multiply love.
Oh, sorry.
Yeah, and love is infinite. Yeah, you're right. Time is finite. That's actually a good point. Time is finite.
What else? Our bodies.
Yeah, your bodies times time is— yeah, that'll be finite. Yeah, so you got your body. So isn't that like— those two are kind of like the most like valuable things in the world, like your life and time, right?
Yeah.
So like, what else is finite?
Oil.
Nope, you can find more oil on another planet. We never— we can go to another planet, find oil. They can manufacture oil. You can probably manufacture oil. There's people I've seen doing crazy stuff now. What else? Gold is not finite. You can find more gold in another place. There's more gold being mined every day. What else is finite? Nothing. It's very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very rare. Extremely rare. So the supply is 21 million. That's one of the core elements of why Bitcoin is so cool, because it's finite. It never expands. The supply doesn't actually expand like the Federal Reserve does. Does that make sense? But the issuance, the issuance we just determined, we just literally talked about the amount that's issued every 10 to 15 minutes gets cut in half. So that is their lever for scarcity. So Bitcoin's lever for scarcity is not supply. Its lever is issuance, the amount it issues over time. So I don't know the exact date, maybe you guys could look it up, but the exact date, I think it said it was 21,008 or whatever. We're in 2026, so it will— all the Bitcoin will be out at— can you look it up real quick? Basically all the Bitcoin will be like issued, issued, and the supply will be 21 million?
21.4. 21.4.
So at that point, I think your question was, wouldn't the supply like stop going up and down? Like, yeah, in 2140.
So no one, no miners can receive anything else in 2140?
So it'll switch. That's a good question. So it will switch. What would it switch to? So their fees will be generated by the mining reward. It switches to what? They'll still make fees, but it'll be by a different mechanic. You already know. So could someone guess? You don't know? Think. Where would it switch to? The next coin, like Ethereum? No, they want to control— then you would lose all the scarcity of Bitcoin. I mean, you'll lose all the security of Bitcoin, because all the security is all the computers pointing at Bitcoin. Go ahead. I was going to say whatever mechanism the whales Or the majority of holders create at that point in time? That would be probably— that's like a true vague answer. Give me a specific answer. So he's saying that they could all come to consensus on a new— they could all vote for a new way to make money, essentially. That's kind of it. But we know one right now. We actually know one right now. What is it?
I was going to guess being liquidity providers.
Bitcoin does have liquidity providers, but I doubt it because that's not as— I doubt it. There's one more obvious. Come on, fees, man. Fees. The fees that Bitcoin generates.
What fees?
He doesn't use Bitcoin, that's why. Yeah, I don't think you've ever sent a transaction on Bitcoin in your life, have you? We got a crypto researcher that never sent a Bitcoin transaction. So when you send a transaction, there's a fee that you pay. And so they can switch it to the fees. Does that make sense? So forever they'll be profitable securing the network. They'll still have profitability securing the network. All right. All that to say this, okay? This is the reason, one of the main reasons why crypto is so lucrative and so predictable and why it's better than any other industry in the world, in my opinion, for making money and investing, is because of the predictability of the Bitcoin halving.
Mm-hmm.
Right? We know for a fact, and I don't know how the chart exactly looks off the top of my head, but we know for a fact— you can see it here on my screen, but I would like to show it there— we know for a fact somewhere it kind of looks like this. There's always in between Bitcoin halvings a really big top and a really big bottom. And all you gotta do is buy— this is the core strategy of Coin Picks— is buy a coin right here, get a 15x, 30x, and sell it right here. Nothing like that exists in the world. You can't find that in the stock market. There is no cyclical cycles in the stock market. There is no predictability. It's like this debt-made-up stuff that like never— like people like try to say that there's predictability, but there's not, and it's all over the place. Their cycles are like 1 year, 40 years. and then it drops, and then another one is like 75 years, and then it drops. Like, it's like there's no predictability in the stock market. In Bitcoin, there is. So what we do is we buy low and sell high, but we don't buy Bitcoin. Hence, we've never— he hasn't even bought a Bitcoin in his life. He buys the altcoins, gets the 30x, but we have the predictability of the Bitcoin halving.
Wow.
It's cracked.
Wow.
And I keep doing it, and I'm not even smart, and I did it like 3 times, and now I'm here. Like, I'm trying to tell you, it's cracked. Like, we can make money with AIs and we're gonna do that, but I just make money anyways. Cool. AIs, you— yeah, okay, I make money anyways. All right, I do it consistently over and over again. It's cracked. It's not fair. It's just not fair. It doesn't make sense. It's not fair. And there's people who need to comprehend. We can just pull it all together, right? So we have, uh, follows Bitcoin, moves faster, and then we have the third one, which again doesn't really exist in the world, which is predictability. Predictability. We have a predictable cyclical pattern that we can maximize on because we know for a fact throughout time— for like nothing's a fact, but throughout time there's a very, very, very, very, very high chance of a bottom and a top. And we know roughly the time periods. Now the reason why it looks like this It's because this top is the furthest amount of days from the Bitcoin halving. So if it's the furthest amount of days, then it's the furthest amount of time from the what? Scarcity. This is where the scarcity event comes in. So typically we see a top when the Bitcoin halving is super far away. When the Bitcoin halving is super far away, everybody kind of loses interest. All the scarcity is out, cat's out of the bag. There's no more scarcity anymore. But we see the bottom when the Bitcoin halving is close by. You understand?
Mm.
Why? Why do we see the bottom when it's close by? I said roughly a year. I have prediction models on this on our website. But why do we see the bottom when it's close by? Who can explain it? Come on, try. Just try. Be wrong. Because once enough big guys start to think, all right, bear season's in, then they're going to get the best price. Correct. So right here, scarcity is at all-time high. Right here, scarcity is at all-time low. It's less scarce over here, and it's super scarce over there, because right around the corner, they're about to slash it. Does that make sense?
Yeah.
Okay, I feel led to keep going with a little bit more of the strategy part. So it's kind of— so basically it's cracked. We have like— this doesn't exist in any other financial asset class. You do not have, you know, the high leverage. So to get high leverage, and I'm gonna explain how even more cracked this is, To get like high leverage where you have extreme volatility, typically you have to do something called a leverage position, right? So what that means is you essentially— it's hard to explain, I don't know the exact mathematics, but it's basically like you got to say, oh, I want 100x leverage on this $1,000 bet. If it goes down 2%, I get liquidated. It's called, it's called high leverage trading. So to get gains like that, you You essentially got to risk an absurd amount. In crypto, you don't. And I'll explain what I mean by this. But I just want to explain the correlation. Before we move on, does everybody understand the Bitcoin halving? You guys really get it? Any questions? Do you understand why it's predictable? Can you explain one more— This is like everything, my guys. Can you explain more? Because I got everything besides the chain. Right, how it creates the other chain, that whole thing you said, you lost me there. Okay, got it. So every 10 to 15 minutes there's a new chunk of transactions.
Yes.
Those transactions basically verify the state of truth. Very important, right? That because you could put a transaction in there and put— the transaction I put is that you have 100 million of Bitcoin in your wallet. I could fake that. So we want to make sure that these transactions are super true and that they're real transactions so I can't— someone can't just fake Because you could fake it, you could take a fake code and shoot it at Bitcoin and say that your wallet has $100 million. You can do that in a fake way, you can do that, it's called a malicious attack. So it's very important that these transactions are actually real to the world and they're not fake.
Mm-hmm.
Okay, so Bitcoin, the creator of Bitcoin knew that, like, dang, the ledger is actually kind of important, like we have to make sure the ledger is accurate, right? So what he did is like, okay, so I'm going to make it so that we have an incentive or a payout from the chain itself that goes to securing the security of it. That's the computers. So they're like, hey, we're just going to pay people, and it's going to automatically pay people. It's going to pay people to secure it.
Mm-hmm.
Because you're just putting an incentive behind it. And all the computers are like, oh, we're all going to verify that this is the truth because we want to get the reward. Of like, at first, I think the first reward they ever had was 50 Bitcoin. The first, when it first came out, they were paying out 50 Bitcoin every 10 to 15 minutes. That's a lot of money, right? So people are all freaking out, I want that 50 Bitcoin, let's work for the chain by pointing our computers at it, and then the chain benefits, how does the chain benefit? It's being secure. Yes, the chain is being secure, and so if the chain is secure, that means that the state of truth is actually true. And if it's actually true, that means it can't be tampered with. If it can't be tampered with, that means you can use it for 100 years and it will stay true and it won't change. Trustless, trustless, trustless. You guys understand? You understand what I'm saying?
Yes.
Okay, so if that's the case, that 50 Bitcoin's kind of valuable because I just spent $100,000 on miners to get that 50 Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes down, my miners are now valueless. So all of my incentive is to guarantee that Bitcoin works, because I just spent $1 million on mining rigs. I just spent $1 million on mining rigs to get the 50 Bitcoin. If that Bitcoin gets hacked, if the chain gets tampered with, my $1 million of mining rigs are now rendered worthless, because Bitcoin itself is worthless, because the original state Which is the white paper says that it's immutable, and therefore it's like the government lied. I can't trust the government. Does that make sense? And so it literally takes away the sales proposition of Bitcoin itself. So there's a lot of people that have committed onto that 50 Bitcoin. When I mean a lot, there's a lot all over the world. They're all pointing their computers at that 50 Bitcoin like, "I need that Bitcoin." 50 boom, and then you're telling me that in two years' time it is all. automatically programmed into the original source code that it's going to get cut to 25 Bitcoin. Dang, it's getting cut to 25 Bitcoin. You know what, we already have this million dollars of commitment, we already made all this. I'm just going to start buying the Bitcoin. Let's just buy the Bitcoin. Let's just start buying it right before the halving, and then we'll sell it because the amount that's coming out is getting cut in half. It's scarce. There's less Bitcoin in the, in the ecosystem. You understand?
Yeah.
Go ahead. Why would you sell it then? Why would you sell the Bitcoin? I mean, obviously you want to profit, but like, it's going to become scarcer and scarcer. So like, you just have to keep coming in at the, at the bottom. Yeah. So watch this. So why don't I just buy a whole bunch of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and never pay you?
Why?
Because you got to get paid, sir. So the electricity got to get paid in those buildings. They got to buy new mining rigs. They got to upkeep the mining rigs. They sell the Bitcoin to pay for the cost of the entire facility, and sometimes they strategically sell it as well, but they're trying to pay the bills. For them, it's cash flow. Does that make sense?
It's kind of like off topic, but I just want to know, yeah, how come when you first started like your crypto journey, like you, you, you're— you started with like Ethereum mining? Why did you—
Actually, my first one was Bitcoin mining in 2015, but I didn't commit to it. It was actually earlier than 2015. My first one was I had a whole business plan. I brought it to my parents. I was like, hey, I want to install a 220-volt in the back of the garage. And my parents were like, heck no. I was going to spend $10,000. I tried to convince them to spend $10,000 on Bitcoin when I was like 16. They were like, no. And then so I knew about mining because of all that binge studying. And then years later, I just naturally went to mining because I knew about mining.
So does it work the same with Ethereum when you— Started mining Ethereum.
If I just, instead of buying the mining rigs, just take my money and dump it in there, I'd be worth $100 million. Mining is far less inferior than what we do now. That's a fact. I'd be worth way more than $100 million. Way more. Buying is way better. And I'll explain why. But, um, Melisse, ask me a question. Anything. Just anything. It could be the dumbest question ever. Dumbest question. Come on. Anything you don't understand about it? I know it's over your head. You are missing other lessons, so I know it's probably confusing. Anything simple?
Yeah, I'm gonna go back and dissect all the transcripts for sure.
Okay.
Um, but I guess my question would be with the chain. Um, it's more about like the supply and demand with that.
Yeah, so the chain has the—
the—
so the chain is a blob of transactions. This is like, I know you didn't get the original teachings, but it's basically like a ledger. So when you go, for example, into a bank, there's like a ledger. Imagine like an Excel spreadsheet of every transaction that's ever happened. So that's what this is. So it's not— the supply and demand is a variable, but that's referring to the economics of the coin.
Okay.
Does that make sense? So this is talking about the chain. It's a ledger of transactions, if that makes sense. All right, anybody else have any questions? All right, let's stack it one more time. So this is the Alex strategy, or the CoinPick strategy. We buy altcoins because they're more lucrative and they move faster. It follows Bitcoin specifically, which gives us the predictability of Bitcoin itself. Let's stack it to one more, okay? What's the last one, Jesse?
Ethereum.
We have the reward side locked in. There's something called leverage, and maybe you can give me the math. What time is it? 54. Okay, we're gonna knock this out quick. There's something in traditional finance where you can get high leverage. So for example, if an asset
