Alphabet disappoint as markets wait US data

Okay, very good morning. Hope everyone is well. Tuesday, 30th of April. I'm going to cover a few different things in the briefing today. As you can see here, I've got some economic data coming up. I'm going to talk about, of course, Alphabet and their earnings report last night. We're going to talk a little bit about the UK, some updates on the Labour-Conservative talks. Also got some Chinese data overnight, um, and then some commentary out of the oil ministers from Iran and Saudi as well to be aware of. So just having a look at the, the overall kind of presentation of the charts, if you like, and again, this cross-asset class mix. So EURUSD and cable on the top left, gold futures top right, you've got the DAX, NASDAQ, S&P in the center. WTI crude, as you can see here, just coming up to retest yesterday evening's high in the futures, now at $63.68 as I'm talking, mildly positive, up about 15 cents. And then the Bund flat this morning, just about its pivot. So overall, relatively muted open, not too much in the way of groundbreaking news developments overnight, but certainly plenty of things to get you up to speed on. And also things to be mindful of going forward for the day ahead. The most noticeable thing here on the charts though is the center one, which is quite a severe drop. You can see here after market hours in the futures in the NASDAQ. This came of course after Alphabet or Google, they fell over 7% following their earnings. So a bit of a mixed bag so far for the FANGs in this earnings season. You had Netflix, actually for them as an individual stock, a pretty, pretty small move. They only declined about 1%. Facebook really had a good set of numbers and was received well by the market and rose about 6%. Now you've had Google down, uh, kind of a similar margin. And we're of course looking for Apple as well after market today, which we'll look at in a second. But let's have a quick chat chat about Google because there are certainly a few things I wanted to point out. Firstly, their sales came in at $29.5 billion for the quarter. It's amazing actually when you think about these numbers that they're generating, but that was actually short of expectations by roughly $500 million. So the revenue number was a disappointment. A few different other things and metrics I wanted to show you because I wanted to put Google into a bit of context really, and this is a graphic of Google ad revenue growth. Now their revenue from Google, uh, Google Advertising rose 15%, and you would think, wow, 15%, that's pretty punchy, I'd give quite a lot for 15% growth. But you've got a big problem here if you're a Google ad revenue watcher, because in fact that is the slowest pace of growth that we've had since 2015. You know, if you go back to the summer of last year, and I guess you had a number of things going on like a football World Cup for example, when you start looking at these things where obviously advertising growth kind of rockets higher as a seasonal effect, if you like, every 4 years. But yeah, lots of other things that were happening around that period. But yeah, 15% is a disappointment, and, and there were some concerns about that. Ad revenue growth was solid on mobile but barely present, was the reports, in terms of desktops and tablets. Another concern is whether competition is starting to limit growth. One of the things of which analysts have been looking at, from what I'm reading this morning, is that people have been increasingly going straight to Amazon.com to hunt for products from the, from the e-commerce giant, which has been then, as a net default of that process or change in behavior, have been grabbing a larger and larger slice of the digital ad space. Away from what traditionally would have been Google's. Another graphic here is the number of clicks on Google Ads rose just 39%. Again, pretty mind-blowing figures, but that is actually the lowest year-over-year growth since 2016. As you can see here, I think the graphic kind of, um, really shows quite a dramatic drop-off from what has been a fairly consistent increase of performance going back through the past 4 years, and hence the reason why the shares were, or did, react so negatively to these numbers. A couple things that people are looking at here, a lot of, obviously YouTube is owned by Google, and with this click decrease, a lot of it being blamed on YouTube where clicks on ads didn't grow as quickly as in the first quarter. Especially compared to a strong showing during the same period last year. The slowdown caused by changes to YouTube made last year to help improve the experience for users and advertisers, and also falls into a lot of the regulatory environment and change that has been happening. And that has come to the detriment of the, the kind of paid click rate, if you like, for them in terms of advertising. So yeah, Quite interesting. Obviously a phenomenally large company, and I just wanted to go through in a bit more detail as to explain then the underperformance and the sharp move lower in the NASDAQ future last night. More to come from Apple, uh, and while we're on the tech space, let's just cover off Apple now before we get on to other subjects. This will come after the closing bell So it's not going to happen until after 9 PM if you're in London this evening. Wall Street is expecting iPhone revenues to come in 17% below the year before, even worse than the 14% fall in the previous quarter. That is expected to leave the company with a 5% drop in overall revenues at $57.4 billion. Analysts, though, have shifted their focus We've seen this as a conscious decision by the company to stop reporting their actual unit sale numbers for the, for the mobile phone. They know themselves that market, given their ever higher average selling price, which has, you know, been a difficult one for them with the release of the iPhone X and these higher-priced models, they've kind of wanted to shift markets' attention and therefore their share price sensitivity away from the the, the iPhone. And so it's the other parts of the business which are going to be heavily scrutinized as well as the phone this evening. Now, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs, the smartphone that obviously has defined their business for more than a decade is set to represent only 54% of revenues in the latest quarter compared to more than 60% of recent years. So it is quite interesting. I do remember it's only a few years ago where it was something like the makeup of revenues for Apple was you know, about 75% geared around the phone. That's dropped to nearly 50% now. I think that is, you know, absolutely critical for their longevity in terms of their, their future, um, kind of helping support their share valuation. I suggest a couple things here. Profit margins on the iPhone could also slip in the current quarter. The reasons for this is because there's a settlement of Apple's legal war with Qualcomm. If you remember, we saw Qualcomm shares about 2 weeks ago rocket high, I think about 28%, off the back of that, uh, legal longstanding dispute about their chips. That did also include not just now recommencing the use of Qualcomm's hardware, but also a settlement fee, which I think was undisclosed at the time. So again, that's going to have an impact on the company's numbers. Services revenue— now this is where it starts to get a kind of sweet spot, I guess, of what you're looking out for tonight, which could dictate how well the market receives Apple's numbers. Service revenues are expected to jump by 16% in the latest quarter to $11.4 billion. That would represent about 20% of Apple sales and a considerably higher share of profits given the higher margin. The Apple Watch and devices like the HomePod are growing even faster, with sales likely to hit $5 billion. So again, it's interesting to see the, the kind of the composition or the mix of their products over the long term. This kind of pale blue one should start to decrease, I guess is the plan, and these start to even out, particularly with this darker shade, growing more and more over time. You know, their push into TV as well was one of the latest announcements that we saw in the last month or two. Another catalyst for the company's rising share price: most analysts have been expecting Apple to announce this week that it's boosting its stock buyback program and dividend payments. So another thing to keep an eye out on. One final thing here I wanted to say before we move on with these types of earnings I think if you are trading, um, the index in whatever shape or form, in the futures for example, I'd say just be a little bit careful. We have had some excellent examples of where this earnings season you've had the, the situation, say, with 3M for example, where they missed on the top and bottom line and cut their forecast. That kind of situation is quite clean and you get quite a nice reaction. And if it comes out pre-market, as often the market's quite slow to respond and there can be opportunities there. One thing I would say though is when it comes to some of these earnings, particularly, you know, like the two we've just discussed, things like Google, unless you are absolutely pre-armed with all of the type of information that I've just been covering, and you know, with the case with Apple the breakdown of their different product suite and the generation of percentage revenue for the overall company's sales and the rates of growth. You know, this kind of micro-level analysis of the firm, really you do need to be equipped with that information if you're going to successfully try to trade these types of things, because when it comes to someone like Alphabet in particular. They're such a, you know, they're a business with so many different areas, and we've not even got into the things like cloud computing, which they've been trying to commercialize, compete with the likes of Microsoft and Amazon, and all the other areas of R&D that they invest in. But it gets very complicated, and an earnings per share or revenue number is only just one part of the equation. You can quite quickly get caught the wrong side of quite a wicked move So I'd say the best things are, is, you know, try to do your prep and due diligence well beforehand in that example. All right, let's move on. Looking chronologically then, I'm going to save the charts for Sam to discuss, so I'm going to whip through the news now and a few of the other headlines. We have had the Chinese manufacturing and service PMIs. Now by no means a disaster, but they did come in slightly weaker than expected. As you can see here against the previous, would show a bit of a drop-off on both these measures here to, to come back in toward the 50 level for the manufacturing in particular, though it does still remain in expansion, which is important. How did the market react to this? I guess at the moment it does split opinion because if we start to get Chinese PMI pullbacks, obviously some people get worried about this market and about its ramifications then for the global growth kind of story. However, there's other people on the other side of the conversation who say that, well, actually this is a bit of a sweet spot where Chinese economic data stabilizes. As long as it sits at around that expansionary kind of threshold, well, then actually this means that the Chinese government and the central bank have to continue to commit to support this market. If this recovers too aggressively and economy becomes too robust and starts heating up, well then that means that they need to rein back these kind of stimulative measures. And actually, you know, very good is bad, if that makes sense. So again, they kind of— a controlled, more stabilization effect could well have more long-lasting impact in that, in that sense. So again, I'll leave it to you of where, on what side of that conversation you'll sit. On the trade side, I heard this morning on the squawk when I came in that Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary, has now arrived in Beijing with his envoys. So they're going to be talking trade talks throughout the rest of this week. So again, this is one big but low, I would say, tail risk to markets. Sensitivity to this would be, would be very immediate. And a breakdown of these talks would, I would say, reflect in a very negative way across asset classes if that were to materialize. Another thing, just a quick mention, we did have Samsung, just because again one of the largest firms from overnight in the Asia-Pacific region, uh, their bets on better second half after first quarter profits slumps. They actually posted their weakest profit in more than 2 years for the first quarter. Moving on, a few other things to, to comment. This again, it kind of seems to be the case with Brexit stories at the moment, not really having much of an impact on the pound this morning, but so we're all fully up to speed. UK May faces challenge from grassroots Tories over Brexit. So I've got a couple of notes here, let me read them out to you. So we all know Theresa May survived the confidence vote, which we've got to go back to, I guess, was it mid-December of last year? So that does mean that as far as Conservative Party rules go, the party cannot officially have a confidence vote in her herself until 12 months' time. But what's happened here is she's set to face the judgment of local party leaders and other senior grassroots members at a special meeting at their national convention. So more than 10% of chairmen and women of local parties have signed a petition calling for her resignation, meeting the threshold for an emergency meeting according to The Sun newspaper this morning. So what do I think about this? Well, you know, obviously it will heighten the questions of, you know, is she going to resign? Is that and her resignation becoming more immediate going to help progress the talks, given that's what a lot of the more Brexiteer-minded Tory MPs have been pushing for? My answer to that is no, I don't think that this increases any pressure than already exists on her leadership of the party. For me, this is 100% politics at its finest. Of course, on Thursday we have local elections, and the Conservative Party are going to get creamed in the local elections. They're going to lose potentially north of 800 councillors across Britain. And so for me, if I was a councillor, how do I protect myself from my own constituency? Well, I come out on Tuesday and I blame Theresa May and say I want her to resign. So therefore, when I meet my constituent members and the public, I say I believe what you believe. It's not my fault, it's Theresa May's fault. So this is just complete, in my eyes, political posturing and positioning. Of councillors looking to pass the buck and heap it onto Theresa May. Nothing more than that, I would suggest. And is this going to mean she's going to resign? I don't think so. Moving on then, is this— is the other thing that a few people have mentioned this morning. This is in The Times newspaper. So while all this other thing, all these other news stories are kind of simmering away in the background ahead of the local elections and on Thursday. The talks with the Labour opposition are still ongoing, of course. And Theresa May's government has made substantial moves in Brexit talks with opposition Labour Party, according to The Times, citing unidentified sources. Those Labour sources were quoted as saying that the government appeared to have shifted its position on Labour's key demands around a closer customs union with the European Union after Brexit. So yeah, one to watch potentially if we get any more headlines as they come out throughout the day. A few other things then. In the oil market, there has been, as I mentioned, two comments that have come out, one from Iran, one from Saudi Arabia. This was the one from Iran overnight: Iran will continue oil exports despite US pressure. Now this has been obviously an interesting story that's been developing, and one for the last 2 or 3 weeks, ever since we heard the news that the US were going to end the waivers that were in place for a number of the critical buyers of Iranian crude, i.e., China and India. And what this chap here, Hassan Rouhani, the president of Iran, has been saying is that basically If you go ahead and pursue this, which would be to the detriment of Iran, of course, well, then they have threatened potential— let's just say disruptions could be caused on the Straits of Hormuz, which would be probably the singular biggest supply shock of, albeit a small probability, that could happen if not managed correctly by the US administration. Iran at this point remaining pretty resolute that they'll continue their oil exports regardless. Now, on the other side of the coin, we've had Saudi Arabia this morning. Their oil minister has said he is ready to meet consumer demand and replace Iranian oil, adding that Saudi will not voluntarily exceed oil production levels set in the global deal, which could be extended until the end of this year. Saudi says that every oil minister wants to extend the global oil output deal. So, you know, this is the problem that, that Trump has got at the moment, is that because of how he dealt with Iran in November of last year, where Saudi Arabia increased production by around 600,000 barrels per day to record highs on the back of Iran sanctions, when Trump failed to follow through with those, with any kind of real strength giving those waivers, he lost a lot of faith in the cooperation of the Saudi ministry. And so these comments at the moment are keeping things— I would say the comments out of Saudi and Iran's stance keep me more on the fact that I remain bullish oil and and that pullbacks could be bought into would be my positioning kind of stance. I am fully aware we saw quite an aggressive pullback on Friday, but these particular stories are, you know, very bullish. All right, final few things, uh, and then I'll hand you to Sam. We were talking, Sam and I, after we hit record highs about where do we go next in US equities, and I'll leave him to look at the technicals, but I thought an interesting note out of JP Morgan this morning, and they said that when talking to clients— this is JP Morgan talking to their clients— we don't find many truly convinced bears at this point, but rather investors would like to add at circa 5 to 10% lower levels and capture a return to new all-time highs. It does make me question, I wonder if Sam's on JP Morgan Morgan's client list, because I'm pretty sure that's what he said in the strategy yesterday. He's looking for pullbacks, and, you know, I'll let him come on and look at those levels, but a pullback, you know, warranting a 5 to 10% move lower is a better level than just to re-enter the long position to take us back up to record territory. And I think I can agree with that. I think the, the main points here is about the monetary policy stances at the moment being supportive of equity pricing, i.e., more dovish stances. And then with the corporate earnings, I think what we've had, somewhere near 70% of companies have beat expectations. And of those that have beaten, they've beat by about, I think it's about 6-7% on the top line. So yeah, it's been a pretty decent one, albeit people like Alphabet have obviously, and 3M have disappointed, who we mentioned. One thing I would say though is that, you know, JP Morgan being bullish doesn't mean that that's just a surefire way to get long. The constructive view that they have is at odds with Morgan Stanley, who have said that the market is vulnerable given elevated valuations and subdued growth potential. And both banks also highlight the risks surrounding a potential breakdown in the ongoing positive trade talks at the moment as a key risk factor which could promote immediate selling in equities if that was to transpire. All right, looking at the calendar for today, uh, it's pretty busy actually from, uh, not so much a UK-European perspective. Um, we have— what, what's on the calendar is the German state CPIs. We've already had, um, it looks like Saxony has come out this morning 0.9% against previous 0.5%, 1.9% against previous 1.4%. So a little return of inflation perhaps in these state-level initial readings coming out of Germany. Uh, that just came out a few minutes ago, and as I've been talking, and you can see the euro has appreciated. And actually, if you map this let me just change my charts. So just looking at this here on this latest CPI print, and remember, it's, uh, markets don't hang around when it comes to the German state CPI. It's the first bit of information they get, even though there's several other regions to report. You know, markets are already reacting and pre-positioning then for what typically is all other states falling in step with the first one that reports. So you can see a bit of an improvement in inflationary conditions in Germany, a little pop here in the euro, the Bund, enough then to push us back for a gap fill after the gap up that we had at the reopening of futures markets overnight. So other German states to come through as we go through the, the morning. Otherwise, if we skip through, it's the US afternoon really when start to get a lot more interesting. Um, well, actually, before I jump to the US, don't forget at 10 o'clock you've got European GDP. This is the flash preliminary reading for Q1, so will be an important one for European assets if you're trading them. Um, obviously growth concerns have been lingering in the eurozone given the slowdown that's been evident in Germany, particularly of late. Going to the US session, you got Chicago PMI, Conference Board's Consumer Confidence, and you've got the inventories as well coming later, and you've got pending home sales as well. So plenty of things coming later on. From a speaker's point of view, you've got Bank of England's Ramsden, one of the main doves, speaking in about half an hour's time, and you've got the Bank of Canada Governor speaking as well. Poloz and Wilkins, they're speaking at 4 PM this afternoon if you're looking at the loonie. Earnings-wise, aside from Apple, there are a couple of pre-market names you probably just want to be aware of. So Apple, of course, is aftermarket, but pre-market you've got General Electric, you've got McDonald's, and you've got the— the pharmaceutical giants Pfizer, Merck. You've also got Eli Lilly. And then from chip makers, you've got AMD and you've got General Motors as well reporting. So definitely a few things to be mindful of as we go into the US afternoon. All right, with that, let me hand you over to Sam, and I'll catch you in the chat room, wish you a good day ahead. Thanks very much.

Hi guys, good morning. I hope everyone had a good evening. Let's have a quick, quick look at, uh, the charts, how we're set up for the day ahead. If I just bring in the, the currencies to start. And, and yesterday, relatively quiet overall, I would say, but still some half-decent opportunities out there. But I guess now we head into the main part of the week to, to come, and it should be from now on quite interesting. Uh, during the, the briefing yesterday, we're talking about a couple of levels for the currency pairs. If we could get a bit higher, uh, could be some nice resistance, but were we just starting to get a potential turn in these currency pairs? So have a quick look at those. And, and the euro, we were talking about possibility of, of the, the R1 as, as a level to get short as long as this trend line didn't really break. And, uh, you can see if I just bring this into pictures, make sure I've got the, the right trend line on it. I think it was from around here. So you can see on that breakthrough of that trend line came obviously late on in the day. I'm not sure many people had sort of stuck around, but what, what can always be a useful sort of guide to see whether what, what you thought would be a resistance level or support if it's opposite way around, where will act as that can be these trend lines just before. So the, the aggressiveness, and if you drop this down to 5-minute, there was some good initial resistance, but the break of that trend line sort of then turned the R1 actually to an area to look to break. And you can see that high from Friday offered an area of support to get long. Since then We've obviously had that data that's come out and things have turned around, and I would still have this trendline on. The possibility of that coming back down to the S1 area, the 112 handle on the futures, is something that I'd be keen to still have marked up, as well as potential trendline from those lows that we had Thursday and Friday as well. To the upside for the euro, gotta bear in mind the, the previous lows that we had back on the 23rd and 24th. That is around the R1 as well, and trendline-wise, it should be okay for there. So a bit of a mini range levels to be aware of around the R1 futures, 112.45, uh, and the S1 as well. Pivot would be an interesting point. You can see we've already found some support, was also the high on Friday, but the extremities of that range, I'd very much say, would be R1 and S1. Looking at the pound, starting to get a bit more fruity from the Brexit point of view in terms of, you know, comments starting to come out a bit more regularly now. The, the trend line had broken yesterday, so similar to the, the euro, and looking in the morning at potentially seeing a bit of a reversal. This one, the trend line we talked about from the low as an area where you might start to get a continuation, actually can just see we've just spiked over the last sort of— well, I guess that's pretty 5 minutes because when I was looking before it wasn't there. So yeah, you can see that's come back to test what had broken yesterday morning. So you had that breakthrough of that trend line retested really nicely into the back end of the evening and again, uh, just now. So that's definitely one to have on the chart, starting on the low of the 25th, uh, going through Friday yesterday and then up to well, today's high. Now if it was to continue to go, obviously that, that trend line you'd still want to have very much on. Uh, if it does get a bit higher, in the, uh, the briefing we've got 131.40, I think it was, uh, marks up, which is a really key level just above. But just having a look at, uh, a closer point, you've got the lows from the 18th and the 23rd all in the mix just above today's R2. And before before that, you'd had the higher, the 24, uh, to keep an eye on. But below that trend line, I'd say the sellers are still, uh, in the control, if you like. But above that, things could, uh, could start to change a touch. Same trend line, or same idea of the trend line, but for the Aussie dollar, you had the breakthrough here in a good retest later on. And, and yesterday very much was a case of those trend lines working quite well. So you can see that breakthrough, similar time, 11:12 UK time, early to come back and retest as a good level of resistance later on. So that's something I would still look to have on. It could be that later on this week, this day, you also have the low of the 23rd in the mix there. But that, that multi-month low, which is also the low of the 25th, will still be an area people will be looking to get in. If you're looking for this to be that short-term, medium-term bottom, above the low of the 23rd, will be pretty key for having a bit more confidence in that trade. Some interesting support levels just a bit below, so maybe worth waiting again to, you know, if you are looking for that continuation, I'd say S1 as a whole, you would want to break through and, and that what was the previous high on Friday morning to almost be the, the level you'd want breaking to retest to look for that short. Uh, gold yesterday, uh, the trend channel which we had on last week, obviously the GDP number saw that, uh, that breakthrough. We did get a break of that early on in the session at 8 o'clock. Uh, that did come back to the pivot, and I know a couple people were short on that, an absolutely fine trade, only to then take off just a bit before the data. The data that came out actually did give the opportunity. And this was— I would hope you'd have to almost have orders waiting there, but it did come back to test that previous low of the day before continuing its journey back down to the S1 where we found some support going back into, uh, into the remainder of the session. Uh, R1 today looks quite interesting. You still got that high from, uh, yesterday afternoon and the low from yesterday morning in the mix. And as we progress through the day, it's going to put us onto a 15-minute chart. Probably worth getting on, or potentially getting on, this trend line here as well. You can see from the low of yesterday around 5 o'clock, really well respected for, well, since then and just now as well on that pivot. So a break of that could be the opportunity to get short on a continuation or paying some interest to what happens around days are one as well. Having a look at oil yesterday, talked about the key zone, and, and that's very much one that I'd still have marked up. You can see we did eventually, in the morning that is, push lower to come back. But once we got initially above 38 and then came back to— I think I talked about the between the 61 and 71— you can see we were contained, and well, it's contained again there now. So what what was the breakdown before that final push on Friday held quite well as a resistance. And that's once, uh, yesterday and once again today. For, for that level to break through to the upside, you've got to imagine there might actually be that full retracement in the coming days, as, as talked about. To the downside, I guess you would want to move this lower zone back towards what was the, the, the high of yesterday. Day before that breakthrough. Now around the pivot, and you've got this new sort of range to be aware of, uh, for, for, for oil. The S&P, um, affected, yes, by the NASDAQ's overall move off of those, those earnings, but still not far away from that, that high, is it? If we have a look at the, um, the trend line, I like the look of— I think it starts on the 18th of this month just bringing that into play here. This is something that I would, would have on, and if that was to come into play not too far away from potentially where the S1 could be later on. But also having a look at this trend line as well, going from the previous high of the year on the 23rd, looks to be an interesting decision point if you want to around that 2930, 2931, 32 area. That's something I would, would bear in mind on that longer term buy the dip. I think we, we would still want— if I just put this on a 240, I'll actually just put it on a daily chart— I think you would still want a bit more to, to come down before really getting interested in, in this market, uh, for a medium-term position to the downside. So 5 to 10% if we were to come 5, you're looking at 2,800. And if we go 10%, which obviously would be a decent move, 2,652, which would take us back to levels from January. The— what, the low of triple This one. Yeah, so I mean, that will come in around the lows. Yeah, 20. I think, I think if we were to get there, I'd be, I'd be interested. But before that as well, I think I'd have a bit of 2865. I think with this market there's still room to go. I think, you know, the last couple of times we've come up these levels and come back down. The, uh, there's been a couple of triggers and that could well happen to when we get around those points. But all things considered, 2865 and yeah, definitely around 2800 and just a bit below would be of interest. Also worth having on, I know this, this trend channel got broken and offered a really good, uh, place to have got short, uh, last year on the break of it. But to the upside, while still a fair way away, probably worth having this on, uh, in the idea that we, we could consider it still continue to go higher. And next thing you know, we're, we're above 3,000, 3,015 or whatever, and it could come into play there as well. Looking more intraday then at the, the Dow Jones, those key levels from yesterday still absolutely in play. Not much in the way of movement, but you can see that high from yesterday, the double top was also that key level from Thursday as well, and the low which we made was also Friday's high, or initially the Friday's high. So a bit of a, bit of a range coming into play for, for the Dow. Not too much in the way of movement, unlike the NASDAQ, which did of course drop lower. And if I just bring this in here, it's still— I mean, obviously those earnings come around the other way, we'd have made a new all-time time high there, well be on the, on the way to 8,000. I don't think this changes too much, but it might just be worth favoring, uh, along from a bit lower down. Key level, line in the sand if you'd like, along with the, the pivot, is that low yesterday before we did break through. If we get back above that, normal service resumes, and I think the move to R1 would be quite quick. Uh, any questions, as usual, please uh, do let me know. Just quick look over the, uh, the calendar yet again. You can see it's going to be a case where the morning, uh, after sort of 10 o'clock is, is done until the afternoon where it gets quite interesting, uh, yet again, uh, as well. But any questions, please do let us know, and we'll obviously be on the mic throughout the day. But if I don't speak to you, hope you have a good session ahead.