AmplifyLIVE - WSB Who's Next?

And then normally what you do, Tim, is have YouTube up to there, look at the chat. Yes, I can see it's live now.

Okay, so this should be recording.

Yep, all good. Okay, Tim, if you want to share your screens.

Sure. So what we're going to do here is we're going to have a look at And oh, if I could just get enabled for screen sharing, that would be great. Um, what we're going to do is we're going to have a look at what WallStreetBets are doing, um, at the moment. So we've seen a couple of days here where they're targeting, um, what have they been targeting? GameStop. So we've seen phenomenal, uh, upside on GameStop, you know, 300% And, you know, I think Michael Burry is on, is on that trade too. He's up 1,500% on a $17 million position on that as well. So we saw AMC also getting hit yesterday, and I am a member of WallStreetBets Reddit. And so by looking inside the beast, uh, you can see what companies they're looking at to hit next. And so just from a cursory look this morning and last night, I saw that they're getting turned on to the silver space. And we found the company that they want to hit. It's called, uh, First Majestic Silver, mining symbol AG. So that's what we're going to have a look at here. We're going to look at First Majestic, but also we're going to look at these other, um, essential markets essentially markets that they're looking at is, is the market on, uh, BlackBerry, all right, the market on Nokia, uh, and these two here on the left are, are what, uh, are the companies in the silver space. Now actually, this is a company, AG, it's First Majestic Silver Mining, and the— I said this on Twitter last night, I said I thought it was crazy, but they were really looking to hit the silver ETF SLV offered from BlackRock iShares ETF SLV. Now I put out last night on Twitter, um, what did I say? I said, I said something like, if they could, if they could, if they're turning their attention to silver, this is going to be the biggest test that they could ever face. Now the reason why, from reading on, on the, uh on the Reddit. I mean, just to give you an idea, this is the Reddit here, um, WallStreetBets. Um, it's actually a little bit easier to, to read on my phone, but, um, I can't find the exact, uh, thread they have on, on silver at the moment. But, um, you know, if we can really monitor where these guys are coming into these markets, we can kind of see what's happening. So I'll show you now, at 8 o'clock last night, um, you know, once I was reading this, I went to look on the book and you got to get into the 1-minute time frame. And sure enough, here, uh, if I make this full screen, you'll see on First Majestic here, this is on the 1-minute, so we're looking at the overnight. But you can see these buyers now from pretty lackluster trading to suddenly this breakout coming in. Um, actually, really, I think this started about, yeah, around here anyway, 10 o'clock, just post, like, after market essentially. Look at this big bid coming in here, taking out a pretty key level, 16.38, and then pulling back into the opening price on the market yesterday for AG, which really is a kind of a sleepy underdog share, um, and then picking up the bid again. So really, from the opening price yesterday Oh, hold on a second, get the percentage measuring tool here. From the opening price yesterday, we saw, we saw basically just a huge volatility move down, which is not a mistake bar. To where we are, high of day right now, we're up 47.85%. Now this is similar activity to what we saw on AMC yesterday, and this is what we really saw in the early days of the bid into GameStop. However, you know, the these guys have been lifting GameStop since Halloween last year, October 31st. And so I thought, you know, why not bring this out to people on YouTube to actually see live what these guys are doing? Sorry, hold on a second. So we're gonna— we have German CPI data coming out here, which is, um, quite important to the futures market. But I thought this would be interesting as well to look at You see the buyers coming back on here in the pre-market, midday, again, uh, pushing us right up into this quite important $19.15 handle. Now, to give you a scope of why these levels are important, I'll just go out to the max monthly bars here. So, you know, Barrick Gold will be a miner, and, and it should also follow suit if these guys start lifting the commodities market. But it's one thing to lift GameStop and an underdog share that could possibly, you know, transition to the online e-commerce retail space, and frankly should do. It's another thing to lift a global commodities market. Now, Harold Hamm tried this in the '90s, trying to corner the gold market. Uh, he's a— he's an oil man, actually. Uh, but he made a fierce amount of money in oil and tried to corner the gold and silver market in the '90s. Um, he was unsuccessful with that. Um, but, you know, I don't know, I'd like to get Anthony and Sam's ideas on— we got retail, you know, really filling their boots up now. Are they taking on a bit more than they can chew? Another, just before I finish, the sort of fuel for Instagram— or sorry, for WallStreetBets to get into this trade has been that they've gotten wind that Morgan Stanley have actually been fined $1 billion for manipulation, a market manipulation on the CBOT, which is where these metals are traded. There is no sign of— they got done because there was no sign of market manipulation on the LME, London Metals Exchange, but they did get done. And what was discovered was that Morgan Stanley have been artificially keeping the price of silver down. The word in the Reddit right now is they want to drive, uh, silver to what their real world price is of $1,000. Personally, I don't think they can do it, but I'm going to enjoy watching them try. So, um, uh, that's something that we, uh, that, that read, that was discussed on Reddit. We're not here to discuss, um, any market, any singular market participants. I must stress this is purely observation from the Reddit. So guys, what do you make of all this? I think, uh You're mute there.

So I was, uh, I was having a look at some of your charts you had up just a while ago before we came on, and you had like the, the different almost targets and the patterns that they've been seeing. Oh yeah, here it is.

Yeah, so, so the, the interesting thing is that they really do specialize in underdog type of equity— or sorry, markets like GameStop. Like, like AMC. And I could probably take the silver off here and get up a— oh, it's like AMC. And you'll see, I mean, you'll see that this thing is, um, you know, there has been a pattern to the charts. These are all monthly bars. Now AMC was pretty much destined for the heap here. And, you know, you can see that they're just driving this thing off here. I mean, this, this move is far beyond any sort of deviation measure that you could measure. I mean, I think the 300-day moving— or 300-month moving average, let alone 300-day moving average, is still somewhere down around $4 or $5 in this thing. So, uh, but look at the price pattern on Nokia. BlackBerry. Yeah, it makes sense that they have the same share price pattern given that they are both telecoms hardware players that did get phased out by the movement to the smartphone from Apple. But you do— you can see that there is a slight pattern to these, um, for sure.

So yeah, so beyond then, I mean, it feels like Obviously, this has generated an incredible amount of media attention. I think if you look at the blanket of financial press, you know, the kind of Monopoly man, if you like, of WallStreetBets, the character is kind of peppered everywhere. So obviously that in a way helps the behavioral element because it kind of like just almost like exacerbates the tension on this. Um, 100% yesterday, I mean, it was definitely tied to this. But once, you know, if you fast forward, let's say weeks, you know, can, can this type of, um, assault in this way from this particular group of, of people, market participants I mean, is it possible to be sustained? Can it be consistent or not? Because, because surely if I was a fund manager, I mean, how— whatever the case might be, if they're leveraged and just coming out of these positions, trying to then say, look, at the moment, if this is the state of play, well then we're just going to have to reshape what we're holding on the shorts. And then if they're not there anymore, then what? What do these guys do then?

Well, I think, you know, the futures market, we regularly see that, especially on sort of holiday periods, that markets can really move around on what is light volume. And, you know, essentially what you're talking about there and what we have heard this morning across the markets is that these hedge funds are stepping off a lot of their shorts. They're stepping out of the way because they do, uh, to a certain degree, they do have to publish their positioning. And, uh, I've heard this morning on Bloomberg, um, that they were, that they were, they were doing that. And so I think WallStreetBets don't really care too much about that, given that they're, they're just driving these prices and they're making a ton of money in doing so. So I mean, I think now these positions are just going to accelerate to the upside by twice as fast as what we've seen so far, given that we don't have Melvin Capital there holding shorts over GameStop. WallStreetBets now holds a huge percentile of that company, essentially. And looks like they're going in to take a position in AG today. Looks like—

so how many of these companies are there for them to target?

Yeah, well, just to give you an idea of what's going on in, in the space right now, we have, um, this is the Discord channel for, um, for, uh, WallStreetBets now hopefully this doesn't crash my system because essentially just to give you an idea, um, this is a section here where a lot of the activity is taking place in real time. Then the main focus discussions are actually taking place on the Reddit, um, but just to give you an idea of, um, the activity on this board, you're seeing in real time— I'm not scrolling now, it's quietened down quite a bit— but this is in real time how many people are coming onto the server. And it's just, wow, thousands upon thousands every minute.

And that's, that's all on 1259's tank.

Oh yeah, exactly, exactly.

So you put a message in there, Tim, for to tell everyone to get in on, um, on Cineworld.

Do me a favor. Uh, then they're not gonna like your 20% Cineworld recovery.

Interested in that. No chance.

I, I was, I was chatting last night getting Barrick Gold in on the silver conversation. It did get a little bit of interest, I have to say. And there were a couple of guys who were a little more sophisticated. They were kind of talking about the, the indirect trade to lifting silver, you know, so looking at several miners, looking at several different ETFs. But to be honest the, the mob just wants calls. They just want calls and they just want underlying stock. So, you know, of one particular asset, if you like. And apart from that, that is, you know, the meme stocks is where you really— if you in the real time, you can, you know, you can't actually see too much in here. But it is really interesting to kind of get the sentiments Uh, you know, there's, there's Will DeLucy talking of lithium. Like, joking, he's, you know, I don't have no idea. So, you know, if this is just how it goes, people jumping in here saying, what should I buy? Send me DMs. Uh, AMC, you know, again, they're pumping AMC. EXPR, I have no idea what that is. Um, but really, to get a, to get a good flavor, you need to go into the Reddit board, which I showed you this here.

There's a question then. Yesterday, obviously, a lot of this focus spilled over because of the apparent kind of liquidation from some of these funds forced to cover these shorts. So what can we expect from today in terms of the broader futures market that we look at day to day?

Yeah, so I mean, I, I think because hedge funds are going to have to liquidate, or certainly step off, maybe that doesn't mean fully liquidate, but they are going to cover puts, um, some of the puts, uh, they are going to step off of the outright short positions. Um, you know, I think, I think that's going to cause further downside liquidation. I mean, I was I was saying yesterday, if we finish on the lows on equities, I think that's just going to get more retail interest in, in getting more put protection, more put downside protection. So that in itself becomes a self-fulfilling, self-feeding frenzy, um, of— it makes sense if you're a WallStreetBets retail guy that you want to— you're really up in your position now, so you're going to want some downside put protection. And what happens when the market buys a whole load of puts? The VIX goes up. And when the VIX goes up, equities go down, as in equity indices go down. And so that's kind of what I'm hypothesizing for today. Um, yeah.

So then, so bringing it back then, Sam, if we're looking at these the US index futures. What do they look like to you from a technical perspective today?

Yeah, interesting, interesting.

And I've certainly got loads of messages from, from mates talking about, uh, all these markets. Is it, is it time to buy the dip? Because we haven't really had a dip for a while. It's not a massive dip, but one to, to be considered. Um, I think the, the VIX, it was that— what was it, the third largest intraday spike in history yesterday or something like that, which was incredible, especially considering, um, 2020. Um, but yeah, for the S&P, for example, your middle right chart, I'm just really— I'm interested in that, that low from really the cash token yesterday, 3764, let's call it. That's the line in the sand for me. I'm a buyer above there. I've got, you know, yes, in an ideal world you say could have got in on the double bottom lows Um, but me, I'm looking at it, I see the pivot there, I see a good area of support that hasn't necessarily been retested yet. If I'm a bearish person on equities intraday or even medium term, it has to be below there. So for me, above there, and, and, uh, yeah, I quite like it as a long. On the flip side, you know, you've got the high of the day just being tested, uh, 37.46, rejection, coming lower. You know, are we in a bit of a range between, uh, early hours of the morning and, you know, the European session? What's it, sort of a 40-point range? That's your decision. Decision's got to come. Are we going to break up and hit the pivot and then, you know, the bears really have to take control? Or does that break and the bulls come in? To the downside, uh, below 3,700, there is a lot of support as well horizontally. So it's not like it's game over, um, as such. But, uh, you know, below there, I actually, you know, from a— and I'm not a massive myself Fibonacci user, but, um, 3,600 is the— is an interesting level if we go from the sort of the end of October low, um, to, to the all-time high. It's interesting, it's the 31.8, um, Yeah, next, next one. So yeah, there, it's there to the high, and, and that comes in around sort of $3,600. You've also got, you know, an interesting area of support there, almost the previous all-time high as well. Um, yeah, there you go. Sorry. Yeah, um, that previous all-time high from sort of, what is it, August, September. I mean, I would, I'd bite your hand off for that because I still think this market's going higher, isn't it? What do you think, Tim?

Absolutely. If you get some, I want some too. Absolutely. 36, uh, was it? Yeah, 36. Uh, so yeah, I really like that area for sure. Um, I mean, I'm looking at the Dow right now. It's actually a little bit heavy, to be honest. Um, I would expect— what I would have expected just on a standard basis will be a bit of a better attempt on a retracement by this time of day. And we're just not getting it. So I think, you know, you're going to have to see gold coming down as that correlation is still sort of positive with equities. I think, yeah, $3,600, I'll bite your hand off as well for a bit of that. I love the support down there. Kind of makes sense. Um, there is that sort of up channel that we're just— we do have to get below that up channel that you can see on the S&P here since we kind of reached back above those prior all-time highs. Um, you know, I think that was around September or so. Yeah, something like that. So, um, yeah, I think I, I'd actually like to let this market sell down a bit today, and then as it pulls back to somewhere around, uh, let's see, uh, somewhere around the 20 EMA, which is around 30, let's say 30 38s, maybe it's a bit above, then I'd like to, like to sell that, take it down to somewhere like 36s. Um, but yeah, cool.

Well, also there's a couple of other things obviously coming out this afternoon. We've only got about 25 minutes and we get the Q4 advance US GDP as well to throw in the mix ahead of then probably when we'll start to see obviously the pickup in volumes at the NYSE an hour after. So Definitely a couple of things to look at. Just to give you a heads up, we were just kind of testing out the live stream here. We'll continue our live streaming as we always do every day from 8 AM to 4:30 on AmplifyLive.com. So if you're not already part of that community, definitely should check it out. It's not just live streaming, there's tons of stuff that we put up. There all the time, from macro fundamental stuff from me, from technical stuff, psychology. There's recordings every day, there's, you know, more focused trader sessions, there's mentorings, everything essentially. So definitely, um, even, even Tim shaving his head live on the live stream takes place.

So live head polishing, Zach. Be hard, don't miss out.

Um, yeah, so feel free to check that out. But yeah, we just wanted to give this a bit of a dry run to see how it worked for the moment. So, um, but yeah, normally the live feed would go on throughout the day for the community. But one other thing though, if you are watching at the moment on YouTube, um, we are thinking about doing a once a month live broadcast on the YouTube for the YouTube community that we have, where we just do like quite like an open hour of just basically you guys asking us whatever you like. Market stuff, could be stuff about different trading styles, psychology, talking over trades, whatever it might be. But quite keen to obviously give back to all our followers on, on YouTube something. So happy to do that on a, on a once a month basis as well. So yeah, let us know if that's something that you guys would find useful.

Sean coming in here, Sean Grant with a question about the VIX. Yeah, I mean, 37 last night. I think the upside resistance, as we talked about in the room this morning, is at 40s in the VIX. I think if 40s gets, gets an assault today, I think it's going to run run up to about— it could run to 60s, uh, into next week. So I think it's— yeah, you got to be looking at the VIX when you're looking at these equities right now.

Can we have a look at the VIX?

Yeah, absolutely. Let's do that.

I did see Citi's note this morning. The tech guy was talking about 37.

Let me just get a chart. Yeah, this is not a lovely chart, but it is the VIX. Okay, so this is the VIX here. Just let me spidey up some of this stuff. Now this is my full analysis chart on the VIX, uh, what you're looking at is monthly bars and all time. So let me just see if I can make this a little bit smaller. Uh, yeah, here we go. So now the trend downtrend here is the one I've been looking at. This is an all-time downtrend. Uh, let me just see if I can fix this. Here we go. And so you can see the VIX high prior in 2008 trend down. Now it's not, it's not hugely clean. Let me get another one here. Um, yeah, here you go. So essentially this is a downtrend. Now we were looking at this last, I think February, I put out a video in the room, um, on the VIX breaking above this trend line um, in February— yeah, February last year— and then holding on the break. And that's when it was pretty obvious that things were going to get a bit wild. A lot of people seeking downside, uh, took protection there at that point and driving to an all-time high, 85.85. Um, 40s, uh, let's see. So last night, let's go down to the daily bar, uh, 1-year, 1-day. Yeah, you know, we got up here in the futures on the VIX 36s or thereabouts. Um, really the 37s for me is the next resistance, key resistance on the upside. And that's sort of a level that's been, um, you know, used as resistance in the past, um, especially, you know, back to September, uh, September 2019, I think it is here. Um, let me see what year that is. I think that's 2019. I was wrong on the days here. Or so it's 2018, so September last year. Yeah, so if we get above 37s, it's going to get really wild, and I think we're going to have a couple of days then. If it gets above 37s, we're going to run wild. Uh, 46s, uh, it's going to be the next stop, and then 57s. I do have a feeling that this market is not going to put in a new all-time high. I think we've seen the high there. Last year, um, for quite some time. So yeah, that's the VIX. This, this trend here is absolutely key though, as you can see, you know, it's really putting up good support on the multi-day. Cool. Well, on that note, let's, uh, let's wrap this up and then yeah, we'll continue on, on the, uh, main feed on Amplify Live. Cheers guys, nice one guys, take care.