Asian Markets Recover As The Dust Settles

Good morning, Tuesday, 4th of February. Hope you are doing well. And a couple things to discuss then, uh, from my side. I'm gonna run through quite a sequence of different tabs actually of news stories I want to update you with. I'm going to be as prompt and concise as I can, and then I'll hand you over to Sam because I believe Alex also, uh, who you've met on the briefing a couple times before, tend to look at the market more from a slightly more longer-term perspective, some key levels he wants to talk about as well. So first off, before we get into the coronavirus update screen, let's just have a look at the charts and how we reside this morning. And the main thing here is that after kind of catastrophic failure of the Chinese markets yesterday, which the news agencies obviously were talking up— again, as we were discussing, it being more of a function of just the fact markets were closed and the fact that Chinese authorities were very forthcoming in their ability to do whatever it takes in order to mitigate that situation. Well, Asian markets up overnight. That has meant then that generally a little bit calm restored in the respect that equity markets this morning are pushing to the upside as I speak. Did have the question put to me this morning, which was— if I go back to that screenshot When are we going to hit peak coronavirus? Well, I guess there's, there's two ways of answering that. There is one, when are we going to hit peak as in the actual number of cases and confirmed deaths, or when are we going to hit peak as far as the markets are concerned? And if it's the latter, which I want to focus on because I'm not a scientist, I'm not here to try and predict then the accuracy of what the World Health Organization are doing, but from a market's point of view, I think peak coronavirus was last Monday. That first day what we sold off after that weekend gap down that we had, I think ever since then we've already hit peak coronavirus about a week and a half ago, if I'm honest with you. And I think that is validated, that view, by the fact that markets are doing what they're doing, which is after that first down day we've been pretty much rallying ever since. So how much of an issue is this for markets? Well, as we continue to see for different assets, there's different implications. Obviously, China coming back, the big dent to consumption in the oil market by some 20% from the world's largest oil importer definitely was getting factored in yesterday. And we'll have a look at that chart in a second. But for the moment, everything is moving, moving higher in the equity space. And I'll let Sam go over some of the levels. He probably read Tesla up another 20%. I mean, someone posted that saying, is this Bitcoin or Tesla? Because they're looking awfully similar at the moment. But yeah, decent US data as well yesterday. You know, the ISM number was a blowout, and so all eyes on the rest of the other economic data that's going to come out from the States as well as we go forward. But almost a perfect storm in that respect. Solid data, but the Fed aren't going to be doing anything anytime soon. And if anything, if we look out through the following months, the way the rates market is priced is for a rate cut. So if we're starting to get performing data but a little bit of hesitancy perhaps on any ramification of the global impact of coronavirus on the world economy, well, that's kind of a— again, we go back to this almost perfect story storm for the equity environment. Low rates, uh, but an underperforming, fairly decent U.S. economy and corporate earnings that have been on the balance relatively okay despite Alphabet, which I'll go into in a moment. The other chart to update you on is the pound. Again, I'll let Sam go over that in more detail. There's really nothing really new for me to add here other than a little bit of further more aggression in the downside. I mean, even just looking here on a 30-minute chart, quite an obvious key level technicals just breaking. You can see here, if I just put a rectangle from some of the price action that we were looking at from going back to last week and the test seen at the low point in the overnight Asia-Pacific session. So the break of that, which was just around that 130 handle in the futures at least, just helping exacerbate that downside price movement. Obviously a big down day yesterday as the red lines are drawn and reality kicks in in the idea then that the red lines put out by Britain and the EU are far apart, bringing back the prospects of the no deal, and the pound's got to reflect that new risk, um, given where we're at at the moment in those negotiations. Okay, well, look, quick run through then of some of the headlines. So the coronavirus, where are we with that at the moment? Cases just above 20K now, deaths at 427, total recovered at 669. As I said, from a global markets point of view, from the intraday perspective, certainly if you're looking at US and European assets, this isn't really a factor at this point. Again, I'm not talking about the actual virus in a case-by-case basis. I'm talking about how markets perceive this topic specifically. To be clear, these are two very different things. I'm not saying that this number is not going to go north. It will. And quantifying how far north is very difficult, and I think it's a little bit finger in the air if you look at the width of estimates of before full containment and control of this is sorted out. The idea though is that markets are already looking beyond this, as far as definitely the equity space. And given some of the repricing, bumping oil back down to $50, that's also in a large part pricing in that new expectation. The interesting thing though that I did see was this, and this was the kind of trade representative or the trade office in America. They have said in Politico overnight that there is no formal request from China on purchase flexibility. This is talking about the agreements that they struck in phase 1 of the deal about buying large amounts, some $200 billion in fact, of new goods over a 2-year period. So the USTR have had no requests from China as yet, although observers suggested that Trump could provide some leeway if the numbers are heading in the right direction. This is one of the things I was talking about last week, is that I actually think this is a net positive for equities over the medium term because it diminishes any risk of a potential new or renewed trade confrontation between the two countries. Because if anything, China gets a bit of a free pass, and why would they get one from the US. Well, this is from no fault of their own, so it'd be a bit overly harsh, I think, for Trump to try and then, you know, hit the hammer home when really this is something which is out of the Chinese authorities' control in terms of the actual origination of the situation. So again, I'd say this is actually, in a kind of counterintuitive way, quite a positive thing for markets. What does this actually mean as far as the Fed are concerned? Well, I just wanted to bring up a comment from this chap You might, might not recognize him, but if you don't, this is basically Bostic on the Fed, uh, and who said that the virus in China outbreak has prompted traders to begin pricing in a US rate cut by June has not swayed the views of the Atlanta Fed president. So he basically said, we did 3 cuts last year, and right now we're working our way through the— those cuts are working their way through the economy. We'll have to wait and see. There was a lot of stimulus for where the economy was and should make it more resilient to these sorts of things. So again, the Fed, as far as the impact that the virus is having on the US economy, they're still sitting on the fence for the moment, and rightly so, because there's no way you could have any clear foresight as yet as to the read-across that that could have as an impact. But if again If we jump back here, the cases in the US have remained pretty stagnant at 11 for some time, and obviously still remains the case that most, nearly all of the deaths and the majority of the confirmed cases are still in the Hubei area in mainland China. Deaths outside of Greater China have been few and far between. Just to give you an idea of who Bostic is and where does he sit on that dove/hawk scale, he's not actually a voter, so I wouldn't take what he says, um, too much to heart. He is a hawk, so him saying the type of things that he did in that article are not that surprising. But I just wanted to say that, you know, as far as the Fed officials are concerned, I wouldn't be looking for them to give too much a way in terms of, again, quantifying this impact that the virus is going to have on their policy. I don't think it's going to be as yet escalated enough where it's going to be a real meaningful change to things in the immediate future. What has been very interesting though was this. This was yesterday's ISM Manufacturing PMI. I was actually off the desk, but I did see— got a push on my phone when this number came out, and I was like, wow, not just above 50, 50.9. I mean, that's the first expansion in factory activity in America, as you can see there, in 6 months. New orders was a big pop to 52 from 47.6, a sharp rise in export orders. Production was up. The only, um, even employment fell at a slower pace, albeit still sub-50, but some really stellar data there coming out of the States. And again, I do think that that is a real— I think the way equities will react to positive data at the moment, given the virus that's happened, I think good data is a positive for stocks. So rather than that kind of monetary policy read across, which makes the equity reaction a bit messy, I think at the moment the virus keeps them— and the also uncertainty about the future trade negotiation with China keeps the Fed on hold. In this fairly accommodative, uh, phase of policy. But then if the data starts picking up, you go back into that kind of almost Goldilocks scenario again. As we look forward into the session going forward, the highlight from the US data readings is you've got US factory orders, and that too is expected to show a bounce today from the previous -0.7 up to a positive 1.2. Top of the range there is 2.5. If we get a 2.5 reading, if you look here from the last 12 releases, that certainly puts us way above the top end. If we go out to a 5-year, 2.5 then puts us up at levels we've not been since really, uh, the summer of 2017. So that also would continue to promote a fairly positive dollar narrative in that respect and probably help weigh on gold and T-notes further to continue that trend that they've been in in those two products since the overnight Asia-Pacific session as equities have been grinding higher. What is the expectations on Fed rates at the moment? Well, the next Fed rate meeting is not until the middle of March, so some time away, and 90% is the priced expectation for them remaining on hold. 10% of the market anticipating a cut at this point. You got to go all the way out till the June meeting where markets are then more priced in favor of a 25 basis point cut in rates. at the moment. The other thing that we were talking about yesterday, there were lots of source comments coming out as well. This was coming out in regards to OPEC+ officials. They meet for a technical meeting. This is part of their regular schedule. They're going to be meeting today and tomorrow, as far as I understand, and this is about usually the adherence to compliance levels rather than anything other than that. However, If you actually look at the oil chart, and I'm not going to look at it from a technical but a fundamental perspective, a couple of markups here to just quickly show you, to add some context. I mean, here's that price band we've been trading in, which is basically around the $50 to $66 levels. You can see when we had that massive 15% spike in price in September last year on the, uh, the Iran drone attacks on the Saudi Aramco infrastructure, then had the US kill the Iranian commander. That was the kind of beginning of the year when we saw the kind of most heightened tensions within the Middle East. However, that's faded quickly, and now you've got the coronavirus denting overall supply and demand dynamics, i.e., big drop away on the demand side. Has led to this quite sharp depreciation in prices. Now, um, yesterday we did close below that technical level around 50.58, which as you can see was a key support level going back to May and August of 2019. I'd be interested to see how we close today. We are just back above that level for the moment, and again, I'll leave Sam to discuss then if we were to break lower, what his targets might be on the downside should we continue on that way. But one of the things here is that what you start to see— I mean, if we're just looking at this chart, let me just remove these for a second to make it a bit clearer— is that once you start dipping below these levels, you know, it opens the trapdoor somewhat to then almost psychological levels, perhaps perhaps that mid-summer 2017 low. You're looking at pretty much round hand or figures here, so the $49, $48, all the way scaling down, and then the prevailing low from that big sell-off we had at the end of obviously that whole global trade tensions, the oversupply in the market. That was when we hit that lower bound at $42.50. But OPEC at these levels start to get a little bit nervous. And as per what these articles suggesting, and a lot of the talk yesterday was about what can they do in order to mitigate this impending drop in demand and consequently pressure on prices. And what they can do is start to intonate towards more deeper supply cuts. And the talk yesterday was 500,000. I think 500,000 is a little bit tame. I'm not sure how much direct real implication that has on price. Anything more deeper than that, obviously the more bullish a price that becomes. And they've also talked about bringing forward their early March meeting to mid-February in order to get this done. So look out for any more OPEC comments. The technical meeting is happening, so all the oil ministers are present, and so I'll be expecting some more source comments either today or tomorrow, I'm sure. Quick word on the RBA. If you've looked at the Aussie overnight, the Aussie has spiked higher. Why has that happened? Well, even though on the balance most banks were anticipating the Aussie, uh, or the RBA to hold rates, they did, but there were some looking for a potential cut and that did not materialize. So rates still remain at 0.75%. There's a couple of things. The virus is having a significant effect on the Chinese economy at present, but too early to determine determine how long-lasting the impact will be. So they're holding off for the moment. The central bank forecast unemployment to remain around the current level of 5.1% for some time. They said CPI is still expected to be around 2% in the near term, with core inflation rising gradually to 2% over the next couple of years. And importantly, for the growth forecasts, from what I was reading at the weekend, a lot of people anticipating they were going to cut those But instead they suggested, lo the governor, that the fire reconstruction will boost the economy in future quarters after a near-term hit to growth. So that was a bit of a surprise in a hawkish sense, and hence the reason why we've, we popped higher overnight in the Aussie. And also with a little bit of recovery in the Asian markets as the authorities look to tame that situation by throwing everything trying to just quell any fears on a run on the market. The Aussie is looking a little bit more favorable at the moment, at this present point in time. Another thing I just wanted to, to mention, because there's a lot of headlines around this at the moment, a lot of you might be sitting there thinking, uh, what is a caucus when we talk about the, the US and what's going on in Iowa at the moment. So unlike the majority of US voters who cast secret ballots in their state primaries. Iowa residents in the U.S. vote in caucuses, or small local gatherings in which they publicly declare their support for a particular candidate. So this is to do with the Democratic nominees to go forward then for the presidential race that will take place as we go into the elections at the end of the year. What is a caucus? Well, it takes place in close to 1,700 locations across the state of Iowa. Uh, there are also just shy of 100 so-called satellite locations in other parts of the country where residents who are registered in Iowa but live or work outside of the state can vote. Uh, there's basically then a sequence of voting rounds, a first and a second. Uh, over 11,000 delegates are chosen on caucus night. A number will be whittled down then to 41 delegates, and the individuals who actually travel to the Democratic National Convention which is held in the summer in Milwaukee. So this includes Biden, Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, all those names who are the main kind of front runners in a Democratic race. But what the headlines are talking about is that basically there was a technical error which enabled them— or did not enable them to get an accurate reading on the initial results. It was a bit of a calamity last night, a bit of a mess, and definitely I've not actually checked Trump's Twitter, but I bet Trump is loving it because it was just an absolute debacle, quite frankly. And if they can't even sort out a local level caucus, you know, Trump's gonna be saying, how can they run a country? So not doing themselves many favors at the moment. How important is this for today? It's not important, but definitely I thought I wanted to just stress what this is and give it a bit of an explanation. Um, final parts from me. Alphabet did come out, uh, they had earnings. The, the last of the real big tech giants, obviously Microsoft, Amazon, uh, they've all been great. And Amazon was up 10% after their earnings. How did Alphabet fare? Not so good. Uh, Alphabet shares fell 5% last night. Um, they are trying to be a little bit more transparent with their numbers that they release, and that is being welcomed by investors. But what people were looking for— if you read that macro preview that I did yesterday for the week ahead, people were looking at the YouTube video streaming unit as it's one of the first times we're going to get some detailed numbers around the generation of revenue for that particular unit. And they said that revenue was at a pace of $15 billion annually. Now that sounds like a lot of money, but it was well below estimates which were as high as $25 billion. So quite a substantial miss there on YouTube revenue. Uh, 53% quarterly revenue growth for Google's cloud services compared with a year ago meant— although that sounds like again a good percentage— actually grew slower than the business is trying to catch up with, which is Microsoft's own Azure cloud computing unit. And so as such, Alphabet shares were down after market, albeit still up sharply over the last 12 months. Other earnings you're looking out for today, uh, the other kind of main names: Merck, General Motors pre-market, Qualcomm coming after market this morning. Over in the FTSE, if you do look at the FTSE 100, BP, uh, their fourth quarter profit beat estimates The company increased, uh, its dividend slightly. Their shares out of the gate this morning at the bell up 3.5%, uh, so fairly decent response to that at the moment. So that's pretty much it from me. I'm just going to hand you over to Sam, but my overall assessment on things are stable markets, a recovery in China just gathering its breath after the the, the kind of function of catching up given the Lunar New Year holiday. So markets are over that now. The positive things here, we've had some decent data come out the US yesterday, we've got a little bit of action noises about OPEC potentially doing something to help quell any run on prices on the drop in demand. So for the moment it's a fairly risk-on morning, all things being equal. The coronavirus again to be monitored But at this point, not a major near-term issue as far as markets are concerned globally at this point, at least outside of China. Okay, hand you over to Sam, and I wish you guys a good day. Thanks very much.

Yeah, hi guys, hope, uh, we're doing well. Just having a quick look over oil to start off with and Well, it seems like if we get below 50, you get a, uh, get an OPEC comment, or you have a down day, you're going to get an OPEC comment now. So I think if you're medium term short still, I mean, what better area was there to really take some profit on, uh, this, this point? You can see going back to the lows of, uh, 2019, we got below there, finished below there, and usually that would be, you know, ideal for a a short to look to, for these areas to hold up to then push us back down towards, well, I guess you could say 46, 47 area. But you've got OPEC and, uh, they're promising things which the oil market is going to like, whether it be believed or not. I think today will be, will be pretty key. And just having a look over the, the last few days, you can see there's obviously quite a lot of resistance for it to get through. I think most notably coming up here, you've got that 51 handle is bring in that, uh, that pivot point. You can see almost near where we're trading now, 20 ticks or so above, uh, which would be quite key. It was the low that we had back on Friday. We got real choppy overnight yesterday, but then it did find support again there before resistance, uh, around sort of 8, 7 o'clock before that push down towards 49.5. So as the level goes for 50.94, 51, have it marked up and keep a watch on that. I think if we can get above there, fine, we get a bit of a relief rally, and then you could be looking towards 52 relatively quickly, you might suggest. I think there'd be some short-term resistance in and around 51.44, but, uh, oil not necessarily out the, uh, the woodworks yet, but, um, it seems OPEC are willing to chuck these rumors out whenever we get below. However, could work obviously negatively if we do finish below the low of yesterday today. Well, the market's just not going to listen to, um, not going to listen to OPEC, is it? And this market could obviously go quite a long way down. Quick look over at equities. You can see just this morning just pushing above what was such a key resistance yesterday, and then briefly this morning, uh, and a decent push above that area on the Dow Jones here. The S&P similar in, in what where he found some resistance yesterday on what was the Friday kind of, we can call midday morning low, broke through and, and spiked. And, you know, your target would really be around that 328. So nice, uh, push already where on the futures the Dow is up 280 points, which is, uh, a decent enough move. I just say be careful because obviously, you know, while we are pushing to these, the upside, and the sentiment definitely is, is risk on. You're going to have these trend lines that are coming in from those highs. You've got all these previous levels where the sellers took over and led to some of these moves on Friday, uh, just in the way here. So no harm in, in just saying, you know, let's wait for a little bit of a pullback before getting in. And what better level maybe than 28,582, or for the S&P looking towards that R1, uh, 3270, uh, as well for that opportunity. The NASDAQ, you can see, just breaking through as well, that similar level. So, uh, stocks happy, uh, but quite a lot of resistance above. And if we have a quick look back at just how we have traded over the last few days, it's incredibly choppy. There's been times where you thought this market could get away and push to the upside as well as the downside and make new lows for, for the year. So Uh, it's choppy. I wouldn't necessarily want to be in a position for too long, uh, really for the S&P. And I know it'd be, uh, you know, not the, the best entry in the world for a reward point of view, but unless we really get above 3,300, uh, I wouldn't really fancy, uh, a long, uh, for a medium-term position. And really, if we get above 3,300, I think it'll be a quick move towards the, uh, the all-time high. But, uh, remains to be seen what happens there. The pound obviously getting, uh, getting another hit this morning, down quite considerably. And, uh, the lower we come down, obviously you've got to start bringing into picture that trend line. And again, you thought that we'd had the last of it. Not yet, I'm afraid. We are broken through that today, and that remains very key if we close here for this market. And I don't really see if we can close below 1.2941 as well in the futures. I don't see much stopping it from a technical point of view towards these lows that we had in October and November. What a rascal of a market. You could think after the election, boom, let's go, or after the fact that they keep rates on hold, right, it was a 50-50, let's really extend it. Boris comes out on the weekend and hypes it all up, and we're, we're down from 1.3225 to under 1.30 now. So Keep a watch on this on the pound, and of course that retest of that trend, it's going to be, be pretty key. Gold, as you would expect this morning, just coming under a bit of pressure with stocks pushing higher, and you can see just a zone there to focus on. So this isn't really moving off anything to do with the dollar, more just risk play. And, uh, can we get a confirmation of the break of those lows? We just come back to retest that area now as well. And as you know, with when we've talked before with gold, if we do get a push lower because of that, just be aware of what has held up price previously, all of these areas of support. And of course, this trend line is in the mix now to come in around the, the S1 1570 area. So quite a lot of support to come through for, for gold. And by no means is this now the, the end of the coronavirus threat. And I mean, just have a look at gold, it's basically what equities have done.

It's—

you think it's going one way, it doesn't, the other it doesn't as well. So messy, uh, and in times of predicting overall things here, it's, uh, overall direction, it's, it's pretty tricky. Now I'll leave the, the euro for, for Alex to talk about in a moment. I know he's going to talk about the, the Aussie dollar as well, which you can see here is extending, uh, through those highs thanks to, well, risk on, but also, uh, the rates being kept on hold. There was a slight murmur that they were going to cut last night. So I'll leave Alex to talk through that as well. Just a quick look over the DAX, which you can see is pushing higher as well. Did have a poor Friday, just like Europe and US, sorry. But yes, there was no real push. I know that obviously the FTSE with the pound weakness has had a good morning, and looks like the DAX is just trying to extend over these highs as well. But you can see the importance of this level Um, maybe the hourly close is something you would focus on here. Going back to the low that we had on the 28th, we tested it on the 30th, broke through, did find some resistance before getting choppy to the close, broke it on Friday, and we're now testing it now. Can we get a close above there? I think will be important. If we do, that might give the cue for, uh, US equities to have another run. If not, well, what happened yesterday was a bit of a drift down, uh, before the cash open extended us higher. I'll just pass you over to Alex and he'll go through some of the charts for you. Do you need the trading view?

Cheers, Sam. Morning.

Give me this transition chart.

Yeah, morning. Just first of all, would like to look at this dollar index. Um, on a daily chart, which we had that, um, we had that big trend line from the weekly, which is, which was coming up sort of this way. And then now on the daily, there was this trend line resistance from the tops which price has now broken through and is holding as support. And yesterday we had that pretty monster rally off of it with that ISM report. And so I think if this trendline support holds, you know, we make new high for the year, uh, make new high for the year above 98.20. Above 98.20, you've got that November high, which is that sort of 98.50 area, which is actually a nice area of resistance. And then from there, surely it's got to be back up towards, uh, the November— uh, the 2019 highs, back up towards this 100 area. Um, but actually, in currency land itself, the price action is just disgusting. Like, it's absolutely no transition. Actually, could I do it on spot? Yeah, so I'm just going to look at the euro dollar on spot market. The price action is just ugly. It's so ugly. Um, I just almost like— it's almost depressing, like. But the thing that keeps me going in currency land is the fact that I know it's going to change at some point. It's not going to stay like this forever. Um, but looking at the euro, really interesting with that thesis from the dollar index, looking to get long the dollar, especially with that ISM report. Anthony Cheung was saying this morning that a couple more data points like that from the US, and the Fed might start talking about hiking again. And in those conditions, with a strong dollar anyway, the dollar could explode to the upside. And so just getting this 100-day moving average on, um, my sort of thesis here for the, for the euro is this 100-period moving average. So we're— this, as we've seen before, this 100-period moving average can be the catalyst for these big down moves, and especially when we move above it, support, support, break back below and move back below again. So we, on the 31st, on Friday, we closed above. We had this really strong close above it, and now we're— yesterday we closed below it, but we didn't quite close as bearish. We didn't quite close as bearish as I would have liked yesterday. We're also back below this Fib 382 from the bearish— from the top there. I would have liked to have this candle to have closed a lot more sort of bearish than it did, but, um, as long as we stay below the 100 DMA, I'll be looking for bearish opportunities. Actually zooming in on, on, um, I think there's a trend line from— there's this trend line support here which is key. There's been a bit of strength in the euro this morning which isn't really that welcome. And we see this trendline support, that's key in my opinion. You've got trendline support there and the bulls are going to be looking at this high of the day. If the high of the day goes, you'd be looking to play the classic off of that. Uh, if the trendline support goes, then the bears will take over. We get that continuation of the dollar strength. Not really much making too much sense in currency land, but there's two nice opportunities. I prefer the short, but obviously this, uh, this price action this morning is just, uh, horrendous. So quickly moving over to the Aussie then. The Aussie, the RBA didn't— they held, they held rates. Was looking at this area down here, sort of roughly mark it up, massive area around that 6700 handle, huge area. And what's really— so we'd be looking for bullish opportunities down here. And what's interesting, the guys yesterday We're looking at this really awesome range which had formed, this little box range here. I was looking at that right in around that bullish area. And so the— oh, excuse me, excuse me, excuse me— this area here. So we're looking at this ranging area right in around that bullish, uh, that bullish area off the daily. And the RBA didn't cut, we broke above it, it was sort of tried to come back as support, didn't quite test it. And so your backup plan would obviously have to be some sort of trendline resistance break or high of the day break, which we've— which has happened now really. But, um, if you've missed those opportunities, I wouldn't worry because actually we could have quite a big bounce here in the Aussie. If we draw up some fibs and whatnot, we've got the fib 382 which lines up with that 68.20. We've got some resistance here back on 10th of December. Which was 6800 handles. Well, that's decent. And these tops from back here is a really nice horizontal area around here, around 6820s again. And so I think that would be nice. The only thing going against the Aussie is that dollar strength, if it, if it, if the dollar follows through. But that's quite an interesting area there. But I'll leave it at that. That's my little thing, my little two pence. Thanks, Sam.

Yeah, thank you, Alex. Uh, yeah, guys, I would be interested to to hear what you think about the, the dollar and those pairs as well. And also with equities, have we seen the bottom or is it actually just going to get choppy all over again? And for oil, are the— are OPEC going to deliver over the coming days? And oil has also seen the bottom. Be interested to see what you have to say. Should be a good session ahead, so I look forward to catching up with you all later on.