In this briefing, the presenter discusses the latest announcement that Moderna's COVID‑19 vaccine achieved 94.5% efficacy in late‑stage trials, surpassing Pfizer's 90% result. A key advantage highlighted is the vaccine’s stability at standard refrigerator temperatures (2‑8 °C) for up to 30 days and at freezer temperatures (‑20 °C) for six months, easing distribution logistics compared with Pfizer’s ultra‑cold requirements. The news triggered immediate market moves: gold prices fell, U.S. 10‑year yields rose, and equity futures showed a mixed reaction with tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 pulling back while some cyclical and travel‑related stocks (e.g., Carnival, Rolls‑Royce) rallied. Moderna’s share price jumped about 12%, whereas Pfizer’s slipped 1‑2%. The presenter then weighs positives—high efficacy, easier logistics, no major safety signals—against negatives: the experimental nature of mRNA technology, high per‑dose cost ($50‑60 versus roughly $10 for Johnson & Johnson’s candidate), and the need for significant scale‑up in manufacturing. He cautions that despite the upbeat headline, the vaccine is not a panacea; COVID‑19 remains widespread in the U.S., and markets may overreact initially. The briefing ends with a note that further updates will follow.
Chapters
Hello everyone, I just wanted to jump back on quickly because we've had latest breaking news, which as you can see on the screen here to the side of me is Moderna vaccine found highly effective at preventing COVID. So this was the update which we were anticipating this week. It wasn't a scheduled set time, but its release has caused quite a distinct move in markets across asset classes, very reminiscent of what we saw initially with Pfizer. We'll talk about the charts in a moment. Let's talk about the vaccine news. What are the positives? Also, what are the negatives? And beyond the initial knee-jerk reaction, what else can we expect? So starting off with the, the top lines, a few things here to cover. First off, the vaccine has a 94.5% efficacy in analysis of late-stage trials, and that of course is better than the 90% that we saw from Pfizer. In particular as well, in terms of the storage temperatures, that's what's actually one of the main criticisms that we heard of Pfizer was the fact that it needs ultra-cool temperatures, whereas with this case with Moderna, it's a little bit different. So the details here is that the vaccine candidate is expected to remain stable at standard fridge temperatures, so 2 to 8 degrees Celsius, for a period of 1 month or 30 days. Shipping long-term storage conditions at standard freezer temperatures of -20°C, uh, Celsius, can be for up to 6 months. So again, addressing one of the main points that was a concern with Pfizer about its deployment, which would have caused a lot of logistical and distribution problems. And also the efficacy rate is even higher than Pfizer. Now that has caused then a reaction very similar to what we saw initially with Pfizer last time. So gold just dropped immediately on the back of the headlines as they come out, with some fluctuations as well going the dollar. But if you look at these two asset classes here I've got on the screen just sharing at the moment, you've got the US 10-year on the bottom, you've got gold futures at the top, and both moving in the same way. So this is kind of that reflation trade almost, in the, uh, a vaccine being implemented with success in a timely fashion, which would create then a renewed economic growth narrative, and therefore gold lower, yields higher, and then equities originally rallied. And as you can see here, the same sort of play as we had before. The loss is more, more evident in the NASDAQ 100, which has come all the way back down from the, the push higher we saw in the overnight session, all the way back down to now trading slight negative in the futures ahead of the cash open a bit later in the States. So again, that kind of rotation out of tech in the pandemic names and so on. So we've already seen the likes of Carnival, the likes of Rolls-Royce, all these kind of relatable stocks that would be a benefit in a COVID-free world making some initial gains. Moderna shares themselves are up around 12%. Pfizer, conversely, are down about 1 or 2% on the back of this. However, it is not all absolute plain sailing, and I did a tweet if you haven't caught it, but this is my kind of takeaway. On the positive side, as I've just discussed, the efficacy, the refrigerator temperatures, which means transportation logistics is a little easier, and there's been no significant safety concerns at all. There's been the usual things that you would anticipate, which are quite common, things like aching muscles, these types of things, but nothing that would draw major concern. On the flip side though, the Moderna vaccine is based, similar to Pfizer, on the mRNA technology, which is relatively experimental still and is quite different then. That sets these two unique from some of the other phase 3 trials that are ongoing at the moment. The costs are still relatively high. I think, remember reading in the FT not so long ago, the cost for a vaccine for Moderna around $50 to $60 range It was even double that not so long ago, several months, they were looking for more. And that would be way more expensive than, say, the slower, earlier-stage trialing that someone like Johnson Johnson have been doing, which is more like $10, for example. One of the other things was quite interesting listening to their CEO talking, as upbeat as they may have been, is that an admission that large-scale manufacturing is going to take some time to build out. Given that they're not such a matured company as the likes of a Pfizer and a J&J and so on and so forth. So there's a couple of things here to be aware of. Ultimately, obviously a positive, and markets have reflected that, but perhaps a little bit of rational analysis warranted here to see whether or not that this is in fact, you know, the magic formula that says COVID-19 is, is done and dusted. I think not. There's still a long way to go. Undoubtedly though, for the US session as it unfolds, interesting thing here will be if we see any fade of these initial moves. The NASDAQ's already bounced and the S&P is already coming off its initial blip higher that we saw. Gold also is reversing after finding some support around its S2 and has bounced almost $15 from those initial lows. So when the US come in, be interested to see their interpretation. As what we saw at Pfizer, normally there's more commentary that comes out But again, markets tend to overreact behaviorally in the first instance. This is very positive news on the surface. Underlying this though is still not a magic single kind of panacea to COVID problems. In fact, COVID-19, as discussed this morning, is still rampant in America without really real tangible measures being taken on a more broader basis at this point in time. So yeah, that's my initial take. Obviously, probably more things to update by the time I do the briefing tomorrow, but Hopefully that makes sense of it, uh, for the time being. Okay guys, enjoy the rest of your day.
