Crypto Sell-Off LIVE

Oh, there's Will. All right, Will, how are you?

Yeah, great. Thanks, Tim. Thanks for having me into this session, just looking at what's going on now. Um, well, across all, across all markets, um, obviously being, being, being led here by, by crypto. But yeah, talk to me about what you're seeing and, um, what, what does this mean? I mean, I've got some great comments to add about Elon Musk, but you go first. Yeah, you go.

Yeah, so, so yeah, let's do a quick refresher here. Uh, so this is a range that I've been tracking on Bitcoin for quite a while now. And, uh, you know, we've been tracking a bear flag that broke down pretty much here at this point. And I was looking at, you know, trade coming back to the bottom of the range, 46.069 is the bottom of the range. And you can see we had a nice standoff from that area there on, um, let's see, uh, I actually don't have my dates available to me here. Uh, let's see, what was it? Um, oh, this is terrible, um, a couple of days ago anyway. And so really the days don't matter because we now crushed down to 31, uh, 4— it was around 31,300s as key support coming in, uh, just back at this area here. But for me, if we can't hold this area on support, the next stop down is that 20,000 hole handle.

Now, the last Bitcoin video we did Do you remember back in November was when we went above 20,000? And the topic of that discussion was, this time it's different. This time it's different because now you've got people like me, old dogs like me, interested in Bitcoin, institutional investors interested in Bitcoin, the industry interested. And that's why we went 20, 30, 40, 50, 60. You know, it was different this time. My big feeling though is this. I've had so many people talk to me about their Ethereum positions, about their Bitcoin positions. And I'm not an expert in crypto, but I am an expert in markets and I am an expert in psychology. And learning how to manage yourself in volatility is such a big part of this. As you know, Tim, during some of the training, we're like, if you're in a great position and be in multiple contracts, scale out of it. And this is exactly the reason why. I'm worried that there's a lot of young people out there who have followed Elon Musk, hung on his every single word, who have perhaps leveraged themselves more than they should have done, and, um, already going through the stresses of being in lockdown. I don't know, I think it's quite an irresponsible thing for the world's richest man to have done, to have an army of young people following his investment ideas and then to turn around and drop it. I actually think he's, he's got some responsibility on his hands here. I don't know if you've got any views on that, but in my opinion, I, you know, when you see, obviously we're doing a lot for young people's mental health at Amplify, um, and I think there's some responsibility here. I really do.

I, I'd agree with you. I think, but at the same time, you do, you do need a certain maturity and a clarity of mind when you're trading. And I think if you're 17 or 18 though, you don't have that.

You just don't have it.

If you're 17, you don't have it. No, you're not going to have it. And I think Elon is kind of playing with a little more fire than he knows these past couple of weeks. This was fine when we had the 420 tweets and SEC findings, all this sort of stuff. But, you know, it's, it's, it's, this is Basically we're saying, I'm saying this isn't cool, man.

Yeah, 100%. I think there's a lot of people out there who, for example, would have thought, I don't need to follow that career, I don't need to do this, I can actually just trade crypto. And if they've been burnt on this, it's going to be very hard for them to come back from because a starting salary of $3,000 a month, of course, I'll be thinking I can do that in one trade back then. So anyway, that's a bigger conversation. Let's focus on the volatility here because another question I want to ask you is obviously, yeah, Coinbase at the open, Joshua. Coinbase will be interesting. Well, Ethereum, I mean, that might— yeah, yeah. Members of my family, I got— Tim, I got messaged at the end of last week by members of my family saying, oh look, I've never traded before, never done anything like this, but about a year ago I bought some Ethereum and it's now done this. What do you recommend I do? And of course, my advice was take some of it off, take some of it off, leave some of it on, and breathe easy. Just be in a position where it doesn't matter to you, where if it continues to go up to, you know, $100,000, that's great. If it doesn't, that's great too. Just hedge your emotional bets. Um, and, uh, I don't know if they did take that advice, unfortunately.

But look, so on, on that note A lot of the people holding these coins are swing trading, basically. But to use our terminology, they're swing trading these things. You know, to the moon is the big phrase everyone's using all the time now. But really, I know 90% of people trading these coins are literally sitting there right now, and there's only one thing that they're saying to themselves: buy the dip.

Yeah, I know there's that kind of— there's also a large group though that just hold on forever, right? And so, and so those guys I think are both okay. It's the group I think, and I think it's a big group, it's the group I think that have stepped into these markets in the last 6 months or so who have bought recently who have followed the social media euphoria about everything Coinbase and are now finding out for themselves brutally how important money management is.

I think, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, I think this is one of the best dip buys I've ever seen. Ethereum down 50%. I bought just by chance of a Binance funding, me putting further funding into my Binance account. Just by chance, I didn't buy this dip here on Ethereum. Yeah. And I'm pretty happy I didn't. But that issue is still ongoing and now I'm not able to get—

So obviously we can't see the dates at the bottom of your chart, but where does that low correspond to date-wise?

I just do this, uh, the Bitcoin or Ethereum?

Ethereum. There, where is that blue line? Yeah, where's it touched it? Yeah, where is it?

This is the high of the 10th of January.

Oh, okay, okay.

Yeah, nice little pullback on the 20th of Feb, and then I'm using a Fib extension tool from a swing low to swing high on the 13th of May, and then the pullback on the 24th of May.

Do you want to know something worrying? Look at this pattern. Look at this pattern from January. And I'm going to sort of just put something out there for the moment. It doesn't actually— just talking about, you know, a lot of what I do, Tim, is about behavioral finance. It's about pattern recognition. And yeah, patterns repeat themselves, people repeat themselves over time. It's not actually too dissimilar to what's happened to US stocks right, this pattern, especially the explosion in April higher. Does that look that different to the S&P?

Uh, we can do that. We can have a look at the S&P on the daily.

Yeah, have a look at that, especially with the explosion higher in the S&P. And it's just interesting when you get these patterns. And obviously now— yeah, have a look. So actually it's a bit more sustained from here, right? Do you see?

So we've got a pullback, right, right?

We've got rally, rally, rally, rally, But then an explosion in April, right there. That's what we saw in Ethereum as well, obviously to a different degree. But it just— and we're right back on that moving average here in the S&P. It's very interesting. I find it interesting how patterns correlate, how patterns can repeat themselves. I mean, I've got a view here that, look, we've got to at least test 4,000 in the S&P. We're still in a bull market in my opinion. And for sure that, you know, that's all set.

But yeah, which is the dip to buy though?

Well, I think 4,000 you'll see, I think 4,000 you'll see some action, but going back to your previous high there of sort of 3,960 and 3,920, that's also interesting. I mean, we last had this conversation. I can't quite see the dates on your chart, but you remember when we were talking about this earlier on, Uh, and we did dip, yeah, around 4,200. We found resistance and then we just had a couple higher. So Joshua in the room is saying he's looking at buying 4,000. Um, yeah, around there. I think, I think you have to be careful there, Joshua. We might just go a bit to 3,960, as you can see. So sorry, go ahead, Tim.

Uh, in fairness to Will, he did, I think, at this point say we will not see 42s again for a while. And I think I was front-running, I think, in around this time saying we'd seen the high. Actually, did I? Yeah, I think we've seen the high somewhere around here. It's just the market's changed. There's just a change in that.

Well, after you said that we saw the high, the issue was, is after you said we saw the high, we then had the results out of Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and they were all phenomenal. And that's why you had those two green candles— can you see— after that call. But actually, what I really like about this from a behavioral perspective was that's as good as it ever was going to get, right? You've had all of the money, all of the ambition about low interest rates forever, there's, there's very little sugar left in the future jar that hasn't been priced in at that point.

Yeah.

Um, but so I think your call was very correct. It was just those technology results just gave it two green candles. Um, but then, but then now, now it's happening. And I really like the way the recent rally higher tested, went towards the sort of 4,200. Or 4,180 was also a big, big level as well. Yeah. Um, but, but look, you can see by the vertical height of these candles. Volatility's back, markets are moving again, not only in crypto but across the board, right? Currencies, commodities, things are beginning to move. What I want to encourage everybody listening to, listening to this, is try and manage yourself when markets start moving, because what can be— and I've seen this so many times is that when things are relatively stable, when markets sort of grinding and price action is limited, you know, you can trade really well for an amount of time and that's great. But as soon as volatility comes, what often happens is candidates can very quickly get turned around and then turned around again and lose control over what they're doing. Um, Traders, not candidates. Sorry. So just be aware of that, right? You don't have to be involved in this. You need to be aware of why you're doing what you're doing. And I think, yeah, if you've been stopped out, you can imagine how many out there— Tim, you know, let's say stopped out of Ethereum, sort of trying to buy it on the way down, classic scenario. And it's just that if you've got any leverage, that's going to be impossible to hold. What do you think about this on Ethereum, by the way, at resistance at around the $2,600 level? Just looking at your chart there, is that something that's interesting for you?

I think all I could do is think about buying this thing right now. I'm not leveraged in any way on any of these assets. So it's quite comfortable for me to be able to say that. But I'm not trying to day trade them either. I mean, I would love to have bought this dip, but I haven't been able to as I just haven't had to buy— had luck with my Binance account over the last couple of days getting higher tier approvals. But yeah, I mean, I think there's a rubber band effect here. Every time I've seen aggressive selling— I mean, this is ultra aggressive selling, but and liquidation. But anytime I've seen pretty decent volatility selling in these markets, they come back with a pure vengeance like that in the next session. I've seen it every time. You get like 10% down on a Friday, might go quiet Saturday, Sunday, up 17%, 20%, 50%. And I just think there's going to be— there's going to have been a lot of limit orders to buy down there. I mean, on that bit, I'm not the only person who had that We're at that level in Bitcoin, to be honest.

Show me Bitcoin again on your charts.

Yeah, just something. Put this down here for a sec. Yeah, there we go. Let's get that down there. Bitcoin. Yeah, I mean, you know, this level, 31,427, a little spike high there. Just such a clean little line in the sand and the spiking either side to show you that. Uh, you know, it's pretty fantastic. Now if, if we, if we end up closing below— one minute to US session now— but if we end up closing this day below here, put your limit orders in long 20,000 and then take it off 100,000.

Well, as I said, 20,000, that initial break above 20,000 was when we last did a session on crypto. Obviously not being from a crypto background, but you can't ignore these huge, huge levels. And I think, um 20,000 is interesting. I mean, look, it's wild to think that only last summer— well, where were we, like 6,000?

November?

No, but early last summer, so going back to June, July, do you remember when we were actually selling off down to 6,000 or so?

Um, oh, before that, well, May, maybe May. Yeah, crash, and then a little bit of a crash in Yeah, sorry, further on in May— or sorry, March and then May.

Yeah.

And then, yeah, a bit of a sell-down in September, but summer was actually pretty decent. July, uh, if I switch to a logarithmic chart on this—

well, of course, I mean, the summer after the fact that, you know, the Fed talked about their monetary easing and everyone then thinking about, obviously, is crypto the new gold? And actually, forget gold, right? The action's been here. Okay, listen, do you have Coinbase up, by the way? So the US market is just opening now.

Yeah, let's just get a Coinbase chart open.

Let's just see what's happening to Coinbase on the US open.

Wow.

And just on this US open, by the way, the S&P is getting hammered. The NASDAQ's down nearly 2%. Oil's down 3%. VIX is through the roof. Do you still have some VIX on? You know I've got the VIX at the moment.

I, I don't— he's just, he's just gloating, everybody. He's just gloating.

Well, I've been long the VIX since we had that, since we had that session, and I, you know, I do genuinely put, uh, back, back these kind of discussions.

Uh, Barrick Gold now, $25. Yeah, I'm sorry, I'm getting excited about Barrick Gold. I understand, very long that market.

Show me Coinbase.

Coinbase on the 1-minute chart. Here you go. It's not pretty. It's down, uh, 11% at market right now. This is the 1-minute, so we've just opened here on this volatility candle, uh, the spiky candle you can see.

Yeah, but that's interesting. I mean, it's not—

sorry, this is down 11% on the close of the prior session.

But straight away on the cash open there, it does look interesting, doesn't it? Keep an eye on that green candle on Coinbase. Would you use that as a leading indicator for Bitcoin or Ethereum, for example? Like if Coinbase starts rallying off these lows, do you know what I mean? Would you now think, okay, that's—

no, I don't think so. That would— well, that wouldn't be my style. Um, no, I mean, I'd be, I'd be looking at those products to trade on their own merits. I would not— I wouldn't create a location between Coinbase underlying, uh, you know, stock value and a cryptocurrency, you know.

Yeah, I think it's probably—

I see where you're going with that.

I'm just looking for, yeah, sentiment indicators basically.

Yeah, I mean, no, I get— look, it's all, it's all in the one basket really. If you were to have an ETF, it would all would all be in there, right? But, um, no, I mean, I just have to trade each product as they present themselves to me, um, in order to get a decent trade location. And, you know, Ethereum, this is well supported now. It's only down 26% from the 50 it was.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, since we've been talking, that bounce has been, uh, phenomenal. Yeah, that bounce.

Um, I still think Doge is going to pull down a little more. I, I don't think by judging, looking at the other pairs, or the— well, yeah, these other pairs, I don't think we're done on the downside just yet. So I still, I'd still feel comfortable about buying the 31s.

Talk to me a bit more about that. So we don't— you're not done, we're not done on the downside on, on this. Where do you see us going at the moment then?

Um, yeah, so Cardano, Cardano is another biggie. These are daily bars here. I think, I think we could Well, I don't know. Basically, the— what, what I'm seeing is I think we've broken back into this range. I'm not seeing a fast reaction from any of these other coins. I'd like to see a lot of them trade to the bottom of the range, get picked up again.

And John, John in the room is talking about IOTA. Do you know about IOTA? Have you got that up?

I don't trade IOTA, unfortunately. There are multiple altcoins, but I can't track them all.

And then they're saying, oh, what's the prediction? How much further will the, uh, NASDAQ go, for example? Well, there's, there's a question. I mean, I think one thing to understand about US stocks is it's incredibly hard to be bearish US equities. Now don't, don't worry, I've tried. I've tried to be bearish US equities for some time. Really, really difficult. So look, could the NASDAQ now bounce? You can see, um Tim's trendline. That's your NASDAQ, isn't it? Middle left.

That we have— we talked about this in the free US video.

Yeah, so look at that trendline.

You've got this up for us. Yeah, so Reid got this up for us. Um, I like this range. I'm probably going to kill this range, um, in NASDAQ because it's not that clean. Uh, so I got a big fib extension level here, but really Reid's killed it with this trend today. Lovely. Um, lovely action here off of that really clear, clear buy point. So I think, you know, what we have seen for the last 9, 10 months is Euro session, these equities have screamed to the upside. Comes to the open on the US session, it comes off a little bit. And now we're seeing the inverse of that, where in the Euro session we're seeing the downside on equities.

Yeah.

And then we're seeing the, the retracement over the US session. And we were talking about this recently when I was chatting with Linda Raschke as well. She was saying, you know, that's, that's obvious about, you know, when we were on the way up. And so now we've seen this turn, well, we've got to see the inverse, and this is what we have, you know.

That's interesting. Um, if we break below the trend line here in the NASDAQ though, what's next?

Uh, I'm turning off my screens and going for a beer. I think, I think, I think all hell is going to break loose, friends.

We're not far. We literally touched it to the tick just now.

That's— yeah, yeah, that's, that's Reid. He's killing it.

Yeah. Well done, Reid. And by the way, for everyone listening, if you're not part of the Amplify Live community, you can have free access. Go on to AmplifyLive.com. Um, check it out, see what you can get. There is a huge amount there, all available for free. Um, we would be happy to have you. Yeah, just looking at the shorter term chart of your NASDAQ, we're approaching S2 now. Can you see middle, middle left? Yeah, and that's been a really strong bounce there, actually. Really strong bounce.

Yeah, I think, I think this— we're entering the retrace— retracement phase of the equities picture. Just have another little gander around these other US equities. The S&P doesn't really convince me that this is going to be 40.21s is what I've been looking at for a low today. Uh, down, it's gonna—

that's the low that you were calling when we were talking a few weeks ago, you know. I mean, it's been around that area. Um, it does feel to me the spooze are heavy. I think very understandable to have a bit of a bounce now on the US cash market open. Um, yeah, I for one am not at the moment jumping in long US equities, right? You know, obviously I've still got the VIXs on, but I, I don't think, um I don't think now's the time. I still think we'll be moving higher, but, but, but not for now. Let's have a look at gold. I mean, look, the wheel of Lucy written all over it. Yeah, well, obviously right now, obviously it does. 1874 for gold. It's interesting.

I think it's cheap. I think it's cheap right now.

It's been such a wild dollar. So as you, I've had Barrick for a long time now. I scaled out a bit when we were talking last on the mic together. I still have enough that I'm very interested in it. But yeah, I mean, I think that the issue with gold is it's just such a hard one to grasp, right? I mean, because very often when you think it's a big risk-off event, actually gold gets hammered just like everything else does. Keep an eye on the Dow, by the way, new lows since the cash market open. That's what's dragging the E-mini S&P lower as well. Now, oil, oil, of course. So, so, so also keep an eye on the NASDAQ. These things are all correlated, right? That was gold moving higher, risk-off, Dow just taking a tick lower, dragging on the S&P. What's your bottom chart there? Oil. Yeah, oil below S1, all the way down at $63. So the big level to watch, the big level to watch here is the NASDAQ, that trend line. Um, Reid, I assume you're still listening. Thanks very much for sharing that, uh, technical analysis with Tim this morning. Um, yeah, right on 12,960 on the NASDAQ. Let's have a look at the coins. And then Naren's talking in the room saying, well, listen, one of the things about the Bitcoin crash is Beijing on Tuesday banned financial institutions and payment companies from providing services. So that's a good reminder of the situation. And I think that on top of what happened with, uh, Tesla— I just wait. Also, this is obviously the whole page of crypto. XRP is looking— I mean, that's a, that's a very bearish red candle there by XRP.

I, uh, I'm not gonna talk about it.

I'm assuming you're still long, so I'm not gonna talk too much about it.

But I do have a buy point here issued at this, this level here.

Oh, you've got a limit order?

Yeah, yeah. So I'm not too worried about XRP. I think you know, it needs a bit of time, and I haven't really gone in with that much weight on it. So it's my, my lowest weighted coin. That's the second lowest.

I think a lot of people forget that there's an inverse relationship between volatility and leverage, and it's dead simple, but so many people get it wrong all of the time. The more volatile an asset that you're trading, the less size, the less leverage, the less exposure you need to it. Super simple, right? If you're trading, for example, S&P futures and you've got $20,000 in S&P futures, you're not taking the same risk if you've got $20,000 in Ethereum. It's a very, very different type of trade. It's a very different type of investment. So if you know that an asset is particularly volatile, you'll have— you know, every nerve and sinew in your body is telling you, oh, if only I put 100% of my— that I could on that, because it's gone up 30% today. So if I had 100% of everything in that, that would have worked out. Well, it's gone up 30% because it tends to move a lot more. So you need to— if you've got different interests and different types of asset, you need to know how to spread yourself across based on how volatile something is. And this is especially true if you're looking at coins, for example, compared to more traditional investments. You know, it's great that GameStop can be up 400% in a day, but you don't want to put your life savings on it, right?

So to give you an example of that in— at work, um, like, I've— bar Bitcoin, I'm in all of the coins that you're looking at on the screen. And the net-net effect is I'm down 26% that market on my portfolio. Yeah, net-net, you know, I, I'm up overall 20%. So, you know, I'm reducing the volatility. It's like the Ray Dalio thing, is that if you want lower volatility, you, you spread across more products. Now, he suggests that the obvious thing is that you, you spread across uncorrelated products. Whereas I'm in this portfolio, it has to be correlated, right? It's a crypto portfolio. But, you know, I'm not suffering down 50% because I'm all in Bitcoin. I'm not suffering down, or 30%. I'm not suffering down 50% because of my Ethereum's down 50%, and I'm not doing it on leverage.

So, yeah, look, it's the same with me on the other side, right? I mean, the VIX is up today, or like the WisdomTree 2x VIX is up now, what, 30%, 36%? Does that mean I'm up 36% today? No, it does not. Probably means actually net-net, given the grand scheme of things today, it's about flat actually. But that's because it's a wildly volatile product. So you got to be able to size yourself differently. I think for people really trying to do this over the long term. And we used to do this a lot. This is how I started trading when I was trading government bonds. The bonds that were more liquid, that had— oh, sorry, I should say the bonds that had higher volatility. So the Bund, for example, compared to the bonds that had a greater market depth or liquidity, such as the chats. I would trade much larger size in those bonds that didn't move very much. Because that would equate— so, you know, 10,000 shats would equate to 2,000 buns because of how they moved. So when you're looking at what to invest in, what to be involved in, I think it's really important for you to take into account how volatile is this asset that I'm trading, and therefore how much exposure do I actually want to this. Yes, I think it might go to the moon, but you know that you should understand that the trajectory there is whippy and it's nasty. And if you've got leverage, you can't even be involved. Forget about it. Um, and it's an important point to remind— and that goes— I don't know if you saw, I posted something on LinkedIn today about FOMO. I did a good video on FOMO. Um, well, actually, I'll share it. I'll share it in the room, um, just because I think that so many people might be— especially on social media, everybody's talking about trading all of the time, that they, you know, they've made 1,000% or, or whatever it is. Um, and it— I think it can entice other people into trading, uh, when it's not right for them to do so. So I've just shared actually, for anyone looking at this on YouTube, the, the FOMO video link is in there. Um, yeah, just, just try and understand, if something is more volatile, you don't need to give it more size.

You need less size. Absolutely. Yeah.

So you're being asked now, why is the NASDAQ and the likes down? What's causing this? Kaz, what would— uh, so Kaz, thanks very much for your question. And Tim, what would be your answer to that?

Yeah, so, um, you've got to understand that the NASDAQ is comprised of the top 30 technology companies in the US, and so it's weighted— it's a weighted index. So for you to own a whole share of the NASDAQ, you own a percentile-weighted size of each of those companies. And so when each one of those companies— say, let's say the top weighting will be Apple— when Apple has a bad day or a bad start to the day and it's down maybe 1%, even 1% on the open, that's gonna— it's, it's such a big weighted component of the NASDAQ that it's going to pull that indices down a little bit. And then you have this echo chamber effect in that, well, you have sector, uh, reliance as well. So if Apple's down, Microsoft is going to be down, but not as much and not as hard. Say there's a downside catalyst for Apple but not for Microsoft, well, Microsoft is going to kind of get pulled down a little bit with it. So then you have that echo effect that Apple's down 1%, then Microsoft might be down 0.5%. And so then you get these two top weighted companies in the NASDAQ are dragging the indices down. And then if you have one smaller weighted company but it's down like 12% or 15% or 20%, then that can kind of be a downside catalyst that can infect the rest of that sector.

Tim, I've also got another way— I've got another way of answering that though, I think, because, uh, yeah, that's obviously why that the index is down, because the components down, but almost it's like, why are stocks moving lower now in general? And for me, I think you've got to think about some of the retail money that's supporting the technology stocks. So much like you say, Tim, so like Tesla or Apple or— a lot of people getting hurt at the moment in what's going on with the coins. Do you think they're also then now needing to liquidate some of their technology positions, Tim, in order to free up some margin?

Yeah, absolutely. I think so. For me, I try not to thread together too many, you know, links in the chain because I can kind of— for me, it can kind of allow me then to easily get married into a thesis and a big concept that just might not be true. So I tend not to tie too many wagons together there. But yeah, absolutely. You know, it also— we were talking about this in the room earlier, you know, it also gets you into a space where you're kind of constantly asking, well, why is this happening? Why is that happening? Rather than focusing on, well, this is just happening. So you're either surfing that wave or you're going to wait for the next one. And so, yeah, I mean, flows, understanding the flows, you know, even just simple as risk on, risk off. Is just when you really start to see the markets as a trader.

And speaking of risk-off then, so Max Moore is saying about, is it the inflation story? And I think, look, Max, on a bigger general picture, ever since the US CPI came out, obviously, and then we had UK inflation data this morning. Yeah, I mean, people have been talking about it. It's out there. It's a fear that's out there in the markets. But is that what's driving crypto? Probably not. I'd probably say quite the opposite. That's actually very often coins as if you like the new gold, actually something to invest in if you think there would be inflation. But that inflation story is there. And I think if you want to understand how markets move, one of the reasons why Tim's saying, well, don't try and have a theory and then think it's right, is there's so many different moving parts. There's so many different moving parts as to why an asset moves. But what's starting to happen, and one of the reasons why Tim and I called the top just a couple of weeks ago in the S&P, and is, is a slight shift in how those moving parts are then painting a picture, if that makes sense, right? It's not one thing, it's not one thing, it's not one thing, it's not one thing. It's how everything comes together into a general story And that story gives a feeling. But look, things are pushing high. You've got some US dollar weakness by the look of the euro there, top left, Tim. So don't tell me the central bank— oh, look at gold. Bloody hell. Don't tell me the central bank—

Well, we looked at this like yesterday in the pre-US. The past week, really, we've been looking at this weaker dollar, higher euro. And gold on the tear to the upside, 2,000 fermi in sight. So, um, this is not news to those who are in the room. I mean, we've, we've carefully been looking at this for a long time. This, this bid on, on gold is, is no surprise to us.

Can you check your news-wise though? Because I mean, cable's going, going up as well. It's been some dollar weakness news at all? Not, not, not sure.

Just keep, uh, Biden talking to Netanyahu. Expecting de-escalation of violence. Uh, Israeli military shelling targets in Lebanon. Okay, so this is— wow, right? So they're really shelling Lebanon now. This is—

this—

I know they fired a couple of rockets in there. So this is sort of— this is a global war-level event now. Um, so this is really kicking off. China reports outbreak of H5N8 bird flu with wild birds in Tibet. Wow.

All right, steady on. So, so listen, um, well, that's fine. Reid's trend line there on the NASDAQ still working super well, right? Can you see it? $12.96. Reid, I don't know if you're in the room, but, but well done. Phenomenal, phenomenal effort. Um, oil, uh, you've got $63 the handle highlighted. Um, but, but yeah, I mean, the dollar is, is really taking a hit here in that, that's why Yeah, taking, uh, taking stocks higher. I think, I think the NASDAQ's going to come out and drag the S&P higher here.

So there's your Bitcoin taking the bid off 31,427s. I mean, a pretty obvious trade there, Rudy. Um, I don't know, $20,000. I mean, I think we could have it. I think a little bit of the bid in gold is this Israel bombing Lebanon situation here, as well as inflation readings, as well as crypto sell-off.

I don't, I don't buy the Lebanon, uh, story here. I just think, I just think this is, um, everyone trying to reposition themselves here, perhaps for, as you flagged just over a week ago, you know, the S&P not seeing the 4,200 again. And I think once you sort of settle with that idea, you need to reposition slightly. I think the coin story is something different. You know, I think that's— we've had a huge rally, and with everything going on, Elon, I think— yeah, look at gold. That is interesting. I know you've got your options. 11 days left. 11 days till expiry for your options. Good luck.

I'm up 41% on the 30 calls. Yeah, so, uh, right now, so another 18% on the 26s.

You've been— and then I'm actually holding, uh, you've been saved by the skin of your teeth, by the skin of your teeth on that one. And I'm happy.

Well, I genuinely— well, DeLucy, oh, you're just, you're just denying the perfection of the timing, that's all. That's all.

But listen, that's the good thing about options generally though with timing, right? I mean, I was trying to go short Airbnb a number of times when we're around the 20 mark and 200 mark. Sorry, I just couldn't do it. Well, I just couldn't do it. But actually, I mean, I think options are the way forward with that type of play. Listen, I'm going to have to go now. I'm making a move to of course, another Skype meeting. Um, yeah, listen, everybody, thanks a million for joining. Oh, it's been great. I've enjoyed, I've enjoyed being involved. I've enjoyed jumping on and talking about this recent market volatility. I've shared that video link about Manage Your FOMO, um, for anyone that's listening in the room. So please do check it out. Um, and yeah, just, just, just hold on to your horses, breathe, and, uh, before you act, make sure you know why you're doing it. That's it. Thanks very much. Cheers. See you later.

All right, thanks, Will, for joining in. It was a good session and really, uh, phenomenal moves in these markets. Just to recap, you know, we've seen this massive downside volatility in, uh, crypto across the space here. We can only really track so many coins, but I mean, these— this selection that you're looking at here pretty decent selection for us to look at. Um, I think we may have a little bit more downside. Um, I haven't seen that level of volatility in Bitcoin in quite some time. Uh, so just huge moves. Um, at the same time, we've come into this US session. Uh, we've seen really— here is, uh, gold, you know, the risk-off product and the risk-on product. SPOO is pressing down 1.2 2% down on the day. Gold up 0.92% on the day. I don't think gold is done here at all, at all. And really, uh, for me, probably gonna hit some turbulence, um, coming into some of these higher prices here. $1,916 spot 7 on gold would be a further upside target with no resistance here at all. No resistance. Last time we fell down through these prices was On the 8th of January, of course, after a failed breakout attempt here on this downtrend, and you know, we were looking at this low in the room that we got on the, on the structure, uh, 31st of March, April, May this year, and it just really hasn't looked back. To give you an idea of what we do trading futures, uh, to some of you on YouTube, you know, you're kind of stop, stop here, getting long here, and then swing hold if you are of the swing trader position. Or this position, you're kind of looking at $20,170 per contract, single contract traded. That's a 12 to 1 on, uh, well, that's 157 ticks of risk. I'd probably like to firm that sort of risk up to really being, uh, something more like 50 ticks on the swing. You could give it 100 ticks if you wanted, but you're, you know, you're still doing about 20 to 1 on that on a 100 tix risk. So really awesome trade to be had here. These type of trades on gold, they don't come along every day at all. But, um, you know, even if you don't take the swing, at least you can avail of that trend on the intraday. Um, just to kind of recap what else we're seeing across these markets, um, is, uh, yeah, NASDAQ continuing to stand up over that trend. Uh, gold— or sorry, oil pressing down on $63.01 on the lows here. Um, I think it's coming into a pretty decent area of support, to be honest. Um, might actually hold off for a little while on oil. Um, I think if we got back to like, say, $60, $59, I'd want to be a buyer for sure, for sure. With this escalating situation in Israel now, shelling in Lebanon as well, that could easily spread throughout the Middle East. We could get Saudi involved, perhaps, um, you know, Iran and Iraq get involved. You know, you might want to be thinking about getting— holding longs from suitable positions in WTI. And the euro, yeah, it's, it's not news that we're headed for one spot, 22,720s on the high. Big shout out to the guys in Texas. Cal, Ivan, what's up? Hope you're doing well. Uh, friends of mine trading crypto out there. Uh, Jeremy, Jeremy should be— you should be back at work. You should not be trading. Um, yeah, some good stuff. Cool. So any other questions on YouTube? Let's see. Kaz saying, uh, doesn't buy the China news. There's always a kind of ban. Yeah, announced 3 times a year for the last 3 years with India. Yeah, yeah, you know, we saw this happen in, uh, I think it was Nigeria tried to ban, uh, cryptocurrencies, uh, not long ago, about a month or 2 ago, and they, they reversed that decision within about 2 weeks, uh, because they realized it wasn't actually going to be possible for them to do that. John Davenport: Lebanon will arrest them soon to avoid this. Uh, will arrest— yeah, okay. Um, oh, rockets fired from Syria a few days ago. Uh, yeah, militias. It's, um, it's a It's a tricky situation. Um, wow, yeah, it's a pretty, pretty gruesome picture out there. Um, great. Well, listen, uh, I'm gonna let this feed run for about 15 more minutes. Just monitoring, just keeping a close eye here on the crypto space because I'm not wholly convinced that we've seen the bottom there. It has been a really fantastic, uh, sell-off in Ethereum here. I just don't think we're going to see those prices again, to be honest, on Ethereum. Um, Bitcoin, I think it's paddling a different canoe at this time. I think NASDAQ has a lot of potential to snap up here at this point. I'm not gonna be swinging a futures long for beyond the close of today on this though. I think, I think generally we are now commencing quite an aggressive downtrend on NASDAQ, so I'm just sort of scalping off of this trend here for now. I can definitely notice there is a slight sluggishness to the, to the Binance data that I'm getting here. Uh, for me, I think these crypto coins, after today's volatility Yeah, if Bitcoin can hold the— this, this level, the 31— was it 31,427s? I think these cryptos are going to come back with an almighty vengeance on the bid, uh, this weekend. You know, we might not see any aggressiveness on the bid tomorrow or all the way to Friday, but you're going to see an aggressive amount of people scaling into what are attractive prices on these coins and prices that haven't been available for at least a month, at least a month on some of the— on most of the coins that we're looking at here. So I mean, Bitcoin, we haven't seen these lows since January, you know. So, um, yeah, I mean, you know, buying the 35s, selling the 70s, sounds like making 100% on your money to me. So Uh, Ray's saying, is the market turning here? Buy the rumor, sell the fact. Buy the reopening and then selling into the record inflation. Uh, yeah, actually pretty much. I mean, I think, I think that's been happening, you know, buy the rumor, as in buy the reopening, sell the fact of the reopening. I think, I think that selling of the reopening started really here back on the 10th of this month, May. And actually, I think the sellers started to get to work back here when I was looking at this Um, you know, back when was that? That was the 30th of April. So, um, you know, interesting times, interesting times. I think, you know, now we're just gonna— we're just gonna print lower on these equities. Now trading into the 200 EMA, for example, on the S&P 500, I think that's a good buy. I think that's a really good area to get along the 200 EMA. And it'll be really interesting to see, um, how we bounce from that general area Or do we kind of sit, you know, come down here and just kind of trade sideways? And if we do trade sideways for 1 or 2 days, that's not going to be pretty for these US equities. It's going to be indicative of further downside, to be honest. So yeah, WTI not holding up in the $63s area, currently $62.74 is that market. Uh, yeah. That bid being a little bit crushed down on NASDAQ now. Equities moving lower, oil moving higher. Of day is $18.90 spot, 8x high of day. Okay, I think we'll leave it there for today. It's really great that we got to share a lot of this volatility on crypto and the futures space with everyone on YouTube to give you a little taste of what we cover each day, each day the markets are open in our Discord room. So if you haven't signed up for the free trial, no credit card required, feel free to do so at AmplifyLive.com. It's where you can find that sign up and get in the Discord room. And we'd be glad to have you in to have a look at, you know, a lot of what we're looking at on these markets, both crypto and these futures markets that you can see on my screen right now. And so AmplifyLive.com. Give me a shout out on Twitter. I'm @TimDoug if you want to give me a shout. I post quite a few charts on some of these markets and some of the crypto markets. A couple of times a week, and it'd be good to chat with you. So @TimDoug is my handle. So listen, guys and girls, thank you so much for the conversation on YouTube, and hope to see you again soon. All right, cheers, thank you.